Western Conference Finals 2015: Game 5 TV Info, Keys for Rockets vs. Warriors
Behind a scorching three-point-shooting performance, the Houston Rockets kept their season alive with a Game 4 victory against the Golden State Warriors. However, the Rockets still face a steep uphill climb in the 2015 Western Conference Finals, albeit one they surmounted in the previous round.
The top story coming out of Monday's contest was the health of Stephen Curry, who left Game 4 with a head contusion and was clearly not himself en route to 7-of-18 shooting from the field. The harrowing fall could have resulted in a much more catastrophic outcome for the Dubs, who will have another closeout opportunity in Game 5 at Oracle Arena.
But Houston came close twice in Oakland and could just as easily be leading this series 3-1. Laying out Game 5's TV viewing information, let's take a look at the keys that will decide whether or not the series returns to Texas.
What: Western Conference Finals, Game 5 (at Oracle Arena)
Date: Wed., May 27
Time: 9 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Keys to Game 5
How Do Rockets Stay Hot from Deep?
Houston raced out to a 23-point lead after the first quarter last game due to unbelievable shooting from the three-point range. The Rockets went 17-of-32 from deep while making all but one three-point attempt in that memorable opening frame:
Obviously, the Rockets are highly unlikely to replicate their 53.1 percent mark from three-point range again. However, Houston was also long overdue for positive regression back to the mean. As Basketball-Reference illustrates, the Rockets' advanced offensive metrics dropped off severely from their regular-season rates and figures from the first two postseason rounds:
| Conference Finals (G1-3) | 99.5 | 46.2% | 49.4% |
| 1st and 2nd Rounds | 109.3 | 51.1% | 55.0% |
| Regular Season | 107.0 | 51.2% | 54.8% |
Of course, one wouldn't expect to Rockets to match their typical offensive output, given that the Warriors were the number one defense by points per 100 possessions. The Rockets also struggled shooting against Golden State in the regular season, shooting under 30 percent from three-point range in four losses. Game 4 was really the first time Houston broke free from the Warriors' stifling perimeter defense and dictated the tempo on its terms.
Somehow, the Rockets need to fall into that same palpable rhythm for at least a stretch in Game 5, even if sustaining it for an entire quarter is virtually impossible. James Harden will continue to wriggle his way into three-point looks, but Houston needs to continue running off defensive rebounds to create space in transition for the likes of Jason Terry and Josh Smith, whose shooting made the real difference in the victory.
Can Warriors Recapture Screen Game?
It's no secret that Stephen Curry makes the Golden State offense cook, but the MVP is nearly as dangerous off the ball as he is pulling up from deep. As Steve Kerr explained to SI.com's Ben Golliver, the Warriors have wreaked havoc in this series utilizing Curry as the screener on pick-and-roll action, forcing his defender to make a Catch-22 decision:
"The thing with great shooters is often times they make the best screeners. So it’s just something we’ve done—we have a lot of plays where both Steph and Klay [Thompson] set back screens and then come off down screens. It’s nothing complicated...Defenders are afraid to leave Steph, as they should be because he’s coming off screens constantly. If we can get an angle then every once in awhile we can pop somebody loose when Steph sets a screen.
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Indeed, Curry is always moving around the court in an attempt to carve out the sliver of space he needs to get off his release. When he implements the screen as a changeup, defenders often fail to switch in time, leaving someone like Klay Thompson with a huge swath of space.
Curry was a team-worst minus-20 in Game 4, a phenomenon that stemmed largely from the time it took him to regain his rhythm after leaving the game for over a quarter. Perhaps playing things cautiously, we also didn't see Kerr ask Curry to flummox Houston's defense with these kind of scurrying off-ball actions. However, multiple reporters suggested that Curry was in fine shape:
KPRC-TV's Adam Wexler also reported that Curry remembered everything about his fall and felt that he came out of the situation "relatively OK." Assuming he's back to 100 percent, expect Golden State's off-ball action to present a significantly tougher challenge than what the Rockets defended in Game 4.
Who Wins the Post?
The big-man matchup headed into this series looked like a clear case of Dwight Howard vs. Andrew Bogut, with the rare Clint Capela and Festus Ezeli sightings mixed in. However, Bogut was a disaster in going scoreless in Game 4, while Howard could be suspended if his flagrant-1 foul gets upgraded to a flagrant-2 foul.
Consequently, it's Golden State's most overlooked starter who could become the difference down low. The Warriors' small-ball lineup is virtually impossible to defend, but it places a huge burden on 6'8" to guard power forwards. As SI.com's Chris Ballard illustrated in a story on Barnes, however, assistant coach Luke Walton suggested that Barnes' quickness actually made him a difficult matchup for his bigger opponents:
"He’s not only very strong, to the core strong, but he’s very quick. So he can use that to his advantage too. We feel like big guys battling against Harrison, as strong as he is, isn’t as much of an advantage as them trying to guard Harrison on the other end with how quick he is and shooting from the outside.
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It certainly helps that Barnes has long perimeter defenders, and pit bull Draymond Green to help him out, but it's astounding how well the idea has turned out. According to NBA.com, the lineup with Barnes, Green, Curry, Thompson and Shaun Livingston has been Golden State's best five-man unit, outscoring opponents by 5.2 points per game. Prior to Game 4, Barnes himself had been one of the best plus-minus players in the postseason:
If Howard sits out Game 5, that will only enable Golden State to use their offensively potent small-ball lineup for longer minutes. Houston would likely counter by starting Terrence Jones and playing him 30-plus minutes in an effort to keep up with the Warriors' spacing.
Even considering that Game 4 was a 128-115 contest, Game 5 could be even more wide open with the big men removed from the paint. If that unfolds, the team that controls the boards and receives the most opportunities to jump-start transition offense could be the squad that comes away with the win.
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