Hawks vs. Cavaliers: Analysis, Predictions for Eastern Conference Finals Game 4
Three straight defeats at the hands of LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have delivered unwelcome clarity to the reeling Atlanta Hawks.
The stakes of Game 4 on Tuesday could not be simpler: Either the Hawks win to extend the greatest season in franchise history, or they lose, and a 60-victory campaign that awakened a vast swath of dormant basketball fandom unceremoniously ends.
It's win or go home.
NBA teams in 3-0 series holes have a 40 percent chance of winning Game 4, according to WhoWins.com. Viewed that way, the Hawks' chances in Game 4 seem better than you might expect.
Unfortunately for Atlanta, its decent shot at a win Tuesday night doesn't mean much because none of the 110 teams to fall behind 3-0 have gone on to win a seven-game set.
That fact, along with LeBron James' ongoing assault on our perception of what's possible on a basketball court, gives the Cavaliers a massive edge. At the same time, Cleveland will face urgency in Game 4 as well.
The Cavs aren't in danger of being eliminated, but they need to end this series as quickly as possible.
James ran himself ragged for 47 minutes in Game 3, and the longer this series goes, the more physically taxed he'll be.
For vastly different reasons, both teams need this one.
| 4 | Tuesday | May 26 | 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) | Cleveland, OH |
| 5* | Thursday | May 28 | 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) | Atlanta, GA |
| 6* | Saturday | May 30 | 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) | Cleveland, OH |
| 7* | Monday | June 1 | 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) | Atlanta, GA |
Key Storylines
Will Atlanta's Desperation Matter?
Atlanta hasn't played its best in this postseason, but it hasn't folded either. This is a prideful team, and we should expect a strong effort in Game 4.
The problem now, though, is that it may no longer matter how badly the Hawks want to survive. At this point in the series, it's a manpower issue.
Head coach Mike Budenholzer cut Pero Antic and Dennis Schroder's minutes in Game 3, nudging them out of a rotation that couldn't cope with their ineffective play any longer. Kyle Korver is out for the remainder of the postseason with an ankle injury, DeMarre Carroll's left knee has limited his mobility and neither Al Horford nor Paul Millsap has appeared fully healthy for weeks.
Don't forget Thabo Sefolosha, who hasn't played yet and won't be involved no matter how long the Hawks survive.
The Cavs are hardly a picture of health themselves, but they've got the momentum, home-court advantage and a strong incentive to close this thing out so they can rest up for the Finals.
Atlanta is going to be desperate in Game 4, but its rotation is so pared down and its players so worn out that a will to win might not be enough.
Will It Get Ugly?
You can just feel it coming, can't you?
The moment Matthew Dellavedova fell/leaned into Horford's legs in the second quarter of Game 3, the stage was set for some chippy play.
Horford was controversially ejected for retaliating, and he had a few things to say after the game, per James Herbert of CBS Sports: "We're out there competing. But he's gotta learn, I mean he's only been in this league for a couple of years or whatever, but he's gotta learn that at the end of the day, it's a big brotherhood here."
That's a reasonable response, and the Hawks are the furthest thing from a dirty team.
But when you read comments like this from Carroll, also via Herbert, it's not hard to see the potential for retaliation: "I just seen Dellavedova diving. You know; he did it to Kyle. He's one of our starters, and he gotta have surgery; he's out 4-6 months. And he did it to Al. I think Al said, 'Enough of this.' And he did what he did."
The Hawks couldn't afford to do anything rash in Game 3 because the game and series were still realistically winnable.
If Cleveland builds a lead in Game 4 and Atlanta has no reason to keep things clean, we might see some extracurriculars.
Obvious Adjustments Each Team Must Make
Atlanta: Compete on the Boards
The Hawks allowed 19 offensive rebounds in Game 3, which kept the cold-shooting Cavaliers in the game, despite a brick-laden 6-of-27 start from the field.
Tristan Thompson has gathered up 51 offensive rebounds in 13 playoff games (only Dwight Howard has more), so keeping him off the boards seems to be a task nobody has figured out. Because their margin for error is so slim, the Hawks must find a way to limit the extra possessions Thompson generates for the Cavaliers.
Otherwise, they'll be in for another dozen or so demoralizing instances of Thompson spoiling sound defense with his rebounding excellence.
As ESPN's Ethan Strauss observed, Thompson's boardwork has sustained the Cavs:
This hasn't been a fast-breaking series (Atlanta has scored just 9.6 points per game on the break against Cleveland—roughly half of the Houston Rockets' 18.7 fast-break points per game against the Golden State Warriors, for comparison's sake), so there's really no excuse for failing to control the defensive glass.
If the Hawks aren't running, they have to rebound.
Cleveland: Force Some Turnovers
The Cavs' defensive scheme has worked well so far. Atlanta has scored just 99.3 points per 100 possessions in the series, which would have ranked 28th in the league during the regular season.
But if Cleveland wants to make things easier on itself (and on James, in particular), a little more defensive aggression makes sense—especially if the Hawks feel the need to take a few more chances themselves.
The Cavaliers have forced turnovers on just 10.6 percent of Atlanta's possessions in the series. No conference finalist has generated fewer mistakes. A lot of that has to do with the Cavs' conservative approach, but if they can get a few easy buckets off turnovers, the tradeoff might be worth it.
After all, any points the Cavs can generate that don't involve James pounding the dribble and then getting pounded in the lane are good points.
Nobody's sanctioning reckless gambles, but a few extra lunges into passing lanes could benefit the Cavaliers.
X-Factors
Atlanta: DeMarre Carroll
This isn't even fair.
The fact that Carroll is still playing in this series earns him borderline hero status. He's clearly hurting, and that's not even counting the pain of knowing he's responsible for slowing down a guy who just put up 37 points, 18 rebounds and 13 assists in Game 3.
Carroll is the Hawks' defensive key. He's the only one equipped to bother James consistently on that end. He's also vital offensively because his three-point shooting is one of the only things that might pull the Cavaliers out of the ultra-conservative defensive scheme they've employed all series.
If he can force James into some jumpers and knock down a few of his own, the Hawks have a chance.
Cleveland: Kyrie Irving
It's hard to know what this series would look like if Irving had played Games 2 and 3, but it's safe to assume the dominant narrative wouldn't be James pushing himself to the brink of exhaustion.
According to Marc J. Spears of Yahoo Sports, Cavs coach David Blatt says Irving is a game-time decision, though there are workout clips from Monday making the rounds that show the point guard looking spry.
If Irving can play significant minutes, perhaps James could relax a little. He's earned a break.
At the same time, the Cavs may not see the incentive in using Irving now; this series is all but over, and the next opponent in line will be tougher than any the Cavaliers have faced so far. It's a tricky balancing act: rest Irving and lean on James or cut James a break and risk bringing Irving back too soon.
Either way, Irving will be pivotal in Game 4 and for the Cavaliers going forward.
Key Matchup
Paul Millsap vs. Tristan Thompson
Carroll and James have already gotten their share of coverage, so let's turn the focus to Millsap and Thompson.
Through three games, Millsap is averaging just 13 points on 33 percent shooting. Even worse, he's attempting just 10 shots in almost 37 minutes per game. That's not enough for a two-time All-Star, especially one with a quickness advantage against a more conventional big man.
Thompson is an excellent perimeter defender for his size, but Millsap simply has to do a better job of affecting the game on offense. He has to take more threes, attack Thompson on the move and work to tire the Cavs big man out.
Millsap needs to score, but even if he doesn't, maybe his activity can tire Thompson out to the point where he won't totally dominate the offensive glass.
Thompson, averaging 10.3 points and 11 rebounds on 60.0 percent shooting, has outplayed Millsap in this series. That can't continue if the Hawks hope to win Game 4.
Prediction
The Cavaliers know they've got this series won, and though they should do everything possible to close it out quickly, the certainty that they'll advance provides the Hawks an opportunity.
Toss in Atlanta's higher level of desperation, James' fatigue and the bitter taste of that Game 3 loss, and the ingredients are there for the Hawks to finally notch a win.
Jeff Teague has quietly played better as the series has progressed, and Horford will be looking to make up for the time he lost after his Game 3 ejection.
Winning Game 4 will only postpone the inevitable, but the Hawks need this win more than the Cavs do—if only for pride.
Prediction: Atlanta 106, Cleveland 98
All stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @gt_hughes.
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