Miami Heat Sitting Pretty After Retaining Lottery Pick in 2015 NBA Draft
If just one team had jumped the Miami Heat during the 2015 NBA draft lottery, Pat Riley's organization would've been without a first-round selection, instead conveying its pick over to the Philadelphia 76ers. And it probably still would've been fine, given the strength of its core.
Now, the Heat are in even better shape heading into an offseason that should see them cement themselves as an Eastern Conference contender.
Wait...what?
Why exactly does retaining the No. 10 pick in the draft mean that a lottery team is going to gain contender status? It's generally pretty difficult to find a rookie who will have a huge impact during his first professional season that deep into the selection process. Hell, it's tough enough with the top overall pick.
But the Heat aren't just any lottery team.
It's worth noting that we're assuming everyone in the expected starting lineup returns to South Beach for another season, which isn't a guarantee. Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Goran Dragic all have player options that will allow them to opt out of their deals, hit the open market and seek out more lucrative contracts that are guaranteed for more years.
None feel like true flight risks, though. Wade is a Heat-lifer who would look rather strange in any other uniform, while Dragic has given every indication that he'll be back for his first full season with the Heat.
"The first plan is to go home and to relax for one month, try to clear my head and then sit down with my family and my agent and go through all the options to make the best decision for myself," the combo guard said earlier this month, per Fox Sports Florida's Surya Fernandez. "I had a great time here in Miami. I want to come back; it's great, but we'll see what will happen."
Deng is the biggest threat to depart, but he's also the least valuable and knows he has a guaranteed spot in Miami for the present. That might not be true elsewhere, given his age and declining level of play.
If all three return, the Heat will be in the thick of the competition for the best starting five in basketball. That three-man unit is stellar enough, and it's only going to get better when joined by Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside, both of whom should be fully healthy after an offseason of recovery.
| Goran Dragic | 16.3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 17.4 |
| Dwyane Wade | 21.5 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 21.4 |
| Luol Deng | 14.0 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 15.5 |
| Chris Bosh | 21.1 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 19.8 |
| Hassan Whiteside | 11.8 | 10.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 26.2 |
Good luck stopping that group when everyone is capable of stepping onto the court at 100 percent—or at least close to it.
That five-man lineup didn't play a single minute together in 2014-15, as Bosh was sidelined for the season with blood clots in his lungs shortly after the All-Star Game. It wasn't until after the diagnosis that the Heat moved for Dragic, and it's not as if the other pieces stayed healthy for the majority of the season, either.
Ultimately, Bosh only played in 44 games. Wade suited up for 62. Whiteside, thanks to injuries, suspensions and time spent in the D-League, was limited to just 48 appearances for the Heat. Deng and Dragic were the healthiest of the bunch, playing in 72 and 78 games, respectively, though not all of the latter's outings came in a Miami uniform.
We haven't yet seen what this group can do, but it should be something quite impressive. It's the threadbare bench that remains the primary concern, and that's why retaining the No. 10 pick is so vitally important.
Miami isn't going to have cap space necessary to sign impact free agents, assuming it holds onto the aforementioned opt-out candidates, and that will leave it to work with the mid-level exception and minimum contracts. As we saw when Mike Miller was told his time in South Beach was up, the Heat aren't even fond of using that exception and paying a hefty luxury-tax price.
And if the Sixers had gotten their hands on the pick that now officially belongs to Miami, the Heat would've had nothing but the No. 40 selection to work with, making it even tougher to find a player who can make an immediate impact.
With No. 10, Miami can go in a number of directions. Only point guard should be off limits, as the three-man combination of Dragic, Shabazz Napier and Mario Chalmers should suffice for a while longer.
Everywhere else, help is needed off the bench.
Chris Andersen is aging, and Josh McRoberts is coming off a torn meniscus that knocked him out for the season, which makes acquiring another rotation big a priority. The wings are even more crucial, especially given the fragile nature of both Wade and Deng.
But in the back end of the lottery, with bench help in general serving as the No. 1 need, the Heat basically have the luxury of taking whomever is at the top of their draft board.
If they're listening to DraftExpress.com's latest mock draft, that would be Kansas' Kelly Oubre. If they go in the direction suggested by Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman and Dan O'Brien, they'd be adding Frank Kaminsky, fresh out of Wisconsin:
"Pat Riley and Co. go with a safe and productive option here, and Frank Kaminsky is just that. Wisconsin's star center will supply efficient offense and enough defensive size and mobility for the Miami Heat.
After developing his craft for four years in Madison, the supremely skilled 7-footer is ready to contribute immediately. He'll help Erik Spoelstra get the most out of the Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh era.
He won't be a star right away, and he might never be one. But he's going to execute crisply, whether it's pick-and-pops on the perimeter or low-post touches. Post players with his level of talent are still uncommon in the league, as one NBA scout noted to ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman.
"
Who they pick isn't the concern right now, though.
The point is that another option is now available, and it's one the Heat sorely need to take advantage of while building a strong second unit behind an even stronger starting five. The players who begin games on the court are vitally important, but their efforts are often wasted if a bench consistently squanders the leads they worked so hard to earn.
Not every team has the luxury of coming out of the lottery with such an impressive core, and the Heat now get to do exactly that. They have the benefit of working to make sure those leads aren't going to go by the wayside in 2015-16 by adding one elite prospect into the mix and then trying to retain everyone else.
Had the ping pong balls bounced any differently, that may not have been true. Even without moving up in the order, Miami still emerged as one of Tuesday night's biggest winners.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.
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