Who Will Win Buffalo Bills' Backup Running Back Battle?

The Buffalo Bills gained an elite running back earlier this offseason when the team traded to acquire LeSean McCoy from the Philadelphia Eagles. 

McCoy, who rushed for 1,319 yards last season, should be the unquestioned starter in Buffalo from this point forward. However, that doesn't mean there will not be significant opportunities for the No. 2 back on the Bills' depth chart.

Three different running backs logged 75 or more carries for the Bills last season, with two of them carrying the ball at least 100 times. Under new head coach Rex Ryan, there may be even more carries to go around in the Bills backfield.

“We prefer to ground and pound it, we’re going to run it 50 times if we can on you,” Ryan said early this offseason on WGR 550-AM in Buffalo, via the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle.

Running the football 50 times a game might be a little unrealistic, but offensive coordinators serving under Ryan have leaned on the run heavily in the past. In the six seasons with Ryan at the helm, the New York Jets averaged just over 32 rushing attempts per game (3,078 regular-season attempts in that span). 

In 2013, when McCoy logged a career-high 1,607 yards rushing, he averaged 19.6 carries per contest. This suggests that McCoy's backup should see 10-plus carries per game this season, assuming offensive coordinator Greg Roman continues to follow Ryan's pattern of run-first offense.

This is a fairly significant workload and one that should entice the players vying to become the true No. 2 back. 

The likely candidates for the backup job are nine-year veteran Fred Jackson, sixth-year pro Anthony Dixon, three-year veteran Bryce Brown and rookie fifth-round draft pick Karlos Williams.

Each of the depth players in Buffalo's backfield brings something unique to the equation, and there is a good chance that the majority of the backs stick on the final 53-man roster. However, there is room for only one true No. 2. 

We can likely expect the rookie Williams to stick due to his being a mid-round draft choice this year. The 6'1", 230-pound Florida State product has the size and the quickness (ran a 4.48-second 40 at the scouting combine) to fit into Roman's offense.

According to Graham Barfield of numberfire.com, Williams was college football's best red-zone back in 2014.

The big question with Williams is whether or not he can make a quick adjustment to the NFL level. He saw his yards-per-carry average drop from 8.0 in 2013 to 4.6 in 2014, and he eventually lost his starting job to a freshman this past season.

Expect Williams to be a wild card in the battle for the backup role.

The fan favorite for the job will probably be Jackson, who has spent all eight seasons of his career with the Bills. He led the team in carries with 141 and in yards rushing with 525 last season, though he ran for a career-worst 3.7 yards per carry. 

Working against Jackson is the fact that he is 34 years old and is due to earn a base salary of $2.35 million in 2015. He did lead the team with 66 receptions in 2014. However, McCoy also has experience as a receiving back (135 receptions over the past three years), which lessens Jackson's value. 

	Attempts	Yards	Average	TDs
LeSeaon McCoy	312	1,319	4.2	5
Fred Jackson	141	525	3.7	2
Anthony Dixon	105	432	4.1	2
Bryce Brown	36	126	3.5	0
Karlos Williams*	150	689	4.6	11

If Williams or Dixon can step up and claim the No. 2 role, the Bills may find it difficult to keep Jackson on his current deal.

Dixon is an interesting candidate because of his age (he will turn 28 this season) and experience in Roman's offense with the San Francisco 49ers (he spent his first four NFL seasons there). Dixon also has relatively little wear with just 253 NFL carries.

Brown is another wild card because of his youth (just 24 years old) and limited experience. Though he rushed for just 126 yards on 36 carries last season (an average of 3.5), Brown did have an impressive season back in 2012 with Philadelphia.

That season, he rushed for 564 yards and four touchdowns on 115 carries with an average of 4.9 yards per attempt. If he can show the type of explosiveness again, Brown will have an opportunity to make the team.

Overall, Jackson's skills as a runner and a pass-catcher make him the best on-field choice heading into the backup competition. However, McCoy's ability to make plays in the passing game and new receiving weapons like wideout Percy Harvin and tight end Charles Clay diminish his value.

Furthermore, Jackson's age and non-guaranteed salary make him an excellent candidate to become a cap casualty prior to final roster cuts.

The fact that Dixon's 4.1 yards-per-carry average was better than those of either Jackson or Brown in 2014 cannot be overlooked. Neither can the fact that Dixon has experience working in Roman's offense or the fact that Williams is still an unproven commodity. 

For these reasons, expect Dixon to emerge as McCoy's primary backup heading into the 2015 regular season.