Rockets vs. Warriors: Analysis, Predictions for Western Conference Finals Game 1
Two playoff rounds of varying difficulty later, the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets are here, in the Western Conference Finals, preparing for Game 1 and looking to close the distance between themselves and an NBA Finals berth.
The Warriors enter Tuesday night's contest after putting away the feisty Memphis Grizzlies. Although the boys of Grit 'N' Grind Island handed Golden State its only two losses of the postseason, their brand of basketball—slow and drawn out—wasn't enough to deliver a real scare. The Warriors regrouped, rattled off three straight wins and closed things out in style.
The Rockets come in under quirkier circumstances. They looked done after the Los Angeles Clippers jumped out to a 3-1 series lead. Somehow, they survived, winning each of the latter three contests by double digits, successfully completing a comeback the Association hasn't seen in almost a decade, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein:
Four victories now separate the Rockets and Warriors from the NBA Finals, and one of those victories will be given out in Game 1.
While the Rockets have yet to beat the Warriors this season, they're working off a gutsy, odds-defying comeback, with momentum and the knowledge that they can transcend significant adversity in hand. The Warriors just present a different type of barrier, one that, at times, looks impenetrable.
Will Golden State start off with yet another bang, winning Game 1 in front of its home crowd? Or might the Rockets, still buoyed by an emotional second-round triumph, become just the fourth team to beat the Warriors at home this season?
Seeds: Golden State Warriors (1); Houston Rockets (2)
Series Schedule
| 1 | Tuesday | May 19 | 9 p.m. ET | Oakland, CA | ESPN |
| 2 | Thursday | May 21 | 9 p.m. ET | Oakland, CA | ESPN |
| 3 | Saturday | May 23 | 9 p.m. ET | Houston, TX | ESPN |
| 4 | Monday | May 25 | 9 p.m. ET | Houston, TX | ESPN |
| 5* | Wednesday | May 27 | 9 p.m. ET | Oakland, CA | ESPN |
| 6* | Friday | May 29 | 9 p.m. ET | Houston, TX | ESPN |
| 7* | Sunday | May 31 | 9 p.m. ET | Oakland, CA | ESPN |
Key Storylines
Are the Warriors maybe, quite possibly, vulnerable?
For a brief two-tilt stretch during the second round, the Warriors looked (insert pronounced gasp here) vulnerable.
Not only did the Grizzlies control the ebb and flow of Games 2 and 3, but they torpedoed the most important part of the Warriors' point-piling machine: their three-point attack. They shot 12-of-52 through those two contests and, for a hot minute, forfeited home-court advantage, appearing as if they, a 67-win juggernaut, had met their maker.
Now, neither of those two losses were blowouts. The Warriors flipped a switch late in Games 2 and 3 and came storming back in the fourth quarter. And while they came up short, it was nonetheless encouraging to see that they could almost win while playing far from their best.
Unlike Memphis, though, Houston is the postseason's fastest team, exponentially decreasing their chances of relinquishing or nearly relinquishing big leads. That puts the onus on Golden State to start strong, not just finish strong—an undertaking they'll revel in as far as Andrew Bogut is concerned, via the San Francisco Chronicle's Scott Ostler:
"It was nice to get in a playoff series ... where people were doubting us. We were down 2 to 1 and it’s the end of the world. To come back and be professional, win three straight, it’s good.
I think having these adversities in the playoffs is what we need. We weren’t going to sweep the playoffs and win the Finals. I don’t think many teams have done that, so for us to face adversity in the second round. ... If we (had swept the first two rounds), who knows what could happen in this next series? I think now we’ve faced some adversity, we know we can bounce through it. If we lose Game 2 or 3 in the next series, we know we’re fine, we’re going to come back the next time and win it.
"
As for whether Bogut's teammates share those lessons learned, well, that's a matter for Game 1.
Is Houston in the Same Class as Golden State?
If nothing else, the Rockets' first two postseason matchups have succeeded in testing their mettle as a legitimate threat.
What they did to the Dallas Mavericks in Round 1, thoroughly outplaying them through five games, was impressive. What they did against the Clippers in Round 2, becoming just the ninth team in league history to erase a 3-1 deficit in a best-of-seven series, is even more impressive.
But the Warriors are a completely different species, one the Rockets just could not hang with during the regular season. They lost all four of their meetings by an average of 15.3 points.
Though Dwight Howard appeared in only two of those contests, they were the Rockets' two worst losses of the series. The Warriors, put simply, owned them:
| Regular Season Overall | 104.2 | 100.5 | 3.7 |
| Against Warriors | 95.8 | 109.6 | -13.8 |
The Rockets, then, are trying to buck a disturbing trend, because they, like most other teams, are not in the same class as the Warriors. To even flirt with the idea that they're now on equal footing, they'll have to make a statement from the jump.
Game 1s typically serve as accurate barometers of what follows. Teams that jump out to a 1-0 lead in best-of-seven series advance into the next round more than 75 percent of the time, according to WhoWins.com.
How the Rockets start this battle will go a long way in determining how they end it. And there's no telling how they'll actually start it after the roller-coaster ride that was their second-round date with the Clippers.
They have ample star power in James Harden and Howard and enough depth in Corey Brewer, Trevor Ariza, Josh Smith, Terrence Jones and Pablo Prigioni. But they're not facing a shallow team like the Clippers anymore.
As SI.com's Rob Mahoney explained following Houston's Game 7 win over Los Angeles:
"Fulfilling that same balance in the next series is another matter entirely. Impressive as it was for the Rockets to mount a comeback against the reeling Clippers, the Warriors—who wait in the Western Conference finals—are a more complete and intensive challenge. Houston's role players will be challenged to their most uncomfortable limits. Harden will have the full attention of the best defense in the league. Howard's defensive presence will be schemed around. We have much to learn about how the specific matchups in that series might play out, but one thing is abundantly clear upfront for a team in Houston's position: Contradictory performance won't be enough.
"
One slip-up against the Warriors will prove costly. They are not an outfit that relinquishes momentum very easily once in control. Ask the Grizzlies. Ask their 2-1 series lead that evaporated in the face of super-small lineups, mismatches galore and a paint-packing defensive scheme that invited long, inefficient jumpers.
It helps that the Rockets, unlike the Grizzlies, aren't three-pointer averse. They're attempting 28.5 long balls per game during the playoffs, more than double that of Memphis, embracing the kind of volume that won't allow the Warriors to camp out under the basket.
Still, the Warriors, as they've shown time and again, are nothing if not capable of adapting. It's on the Rockets to prove they can rival the NBA's best team not after a feeling-out process but immediately, in Game 1, on the road, with minimal rest, knowing they're facing an obstacle they've yet to clear even once.
Obvious Adjustments Each Team Must Make
Golden State: (Un)Packing the Paint
This just in: The Rockets are not the Grizzlies.
Crowding the paint at the expense of the three-point line won't work for the Warriors in Game 1 or, for that matter, at all this series. As Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes wrote:
"The Rockets have devoted just 7.2 percent of their offensive possessions to post-up plays this postseason, less than half the frequency of the playoff-leading Grizzlies' 18.1 percent, per Synergy Sports. And while Memphis attempted only 14 threes per game, the Rockets have tried 28.5 treys per playoff contest.
They led the league with 32.7 long-distance tries per game this year.
"
Good luck abandoning the Rockets' shooters. Their weakest link is Smith, who, as we saw during his explosive Game 6 performance against the Clippers, is not Tony Allen. He and the rest of the Rockets—from Harden and Ariza, to Jones and Brewer, to Prigioni and Terry—will make collapsing defenses pay for their interior infatuation.
Golden State will have to adjust its defensive itinerary accordingly, even if it means providing Green with less help in the post when he finds himself guarding Howard by design or unhappy accident.
Houston: Hack-a-Nobody
Hacking DeAndre Jordan didn't get the Rockets here. But it was an option, a way for them to retaliate when the Clippers sent Howard to the charity stripe.
Said contingency plan is gone now, so the Rockets must find another way to slow down the league's fastest regular-season team.
David Lee, Festus Ezeli and Bogut are all shooting 50 percent or worse from the freebie line, but the former two are used sparingly, while the latter has attempted just four free throws through 10 games. And with the absence of a true foul-shot liability looming large, Howard's free-throw transgressions become all the more damning.
Should Warriors coach Steve Kerr start hacking and whacking, Rockets head honcho Kevin McHale will have to devise a game plan that accounts for Howard's presence or, worse, extended stays on the sidelines.
X-Factors
Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
Andre Iguodala is once again the guy who doesn't often show up in the box score.
The playoffs seemingly haven't been kind to him thus far. He's shooting under 43 percent from the floor and posting a below-average player efficiency rating. And even though he's logging more than 27 minutes per game, there are times when you don't realize he's playing.
But Iguodala is still putting in a respectable number of his spot-up three-pointers (38.2 percent) and serving as a valuable playmaker—the bridge between an initial pass and a wide-open shot. More importantly, he's working his tail off defensively, like always.
Opponents are shooting 37 percent against him overall, including just 21.1 percent from deep. He's smothering shooters on the perimeter and, while past his athletic prime, continues to cut off dribble penetration completely.
As the first wing off the bench, Iguodala is going to see spot minutes on Harden in Game 1. Klay Thompson cannot play all 48 minutes, and Draymond Green spends most of his time guarding forwards and centers because of the undersized lineups Golden State runs.
Harden hasn't shot better than 45 percent in each of his last four games and closed the second round with a 7-of-20 showing from the floor. But his ability to reach the foul line is unparalleled. He attempted 18 in Game 7 against the Clippers and averaged more than 10 per game for the series.
Frequent trips to the charity stripe aren't just a means for Harden to remain productive amid inefficient shooting displays. They slow the game down and threaten to bilk opposing offenses of rhythm and momentum.
Vacillating pace isn't as concerning for the Warriors as other teams. They can win playing any style, frenetically paced, painfully slow or otherwise. But limiting Harden's free-throw and scoring opportunities is the No. 1 priority, regardless of the game's speed.
Part of that responsibility will fall on Iguodala, who by extension will play a pivotal part in determining the outcome of Game 1.
Corey Brewer
Sufficiently guarding the Warriors' backcourt is difficult. The Grizzlies showed it's possible to impede Curry and Thompson for games at a time, but it's a racking task that demands pinpoint execution and the right personnel.
Houston doesn't employ the right personnel from top to bottom. Not with Patrick Beverley watching from the sidelines.
Ariza is the starting lineup's lone elite perimeter defender, which as Grantland's Zach Lowe acknowledges, forces the Rockets into a pick-your-poison situation that'll help define any one game and, inevitably, the series:
Woefully understaffed at point guard, expect the Rockets to deliberately thin out their floor-general rotation even further.
Neither Jason Terry nor Harden is especially equipped to chase around Curry or Thompson, and while Prigioni has been known to borrow Paul Pierce's playoff time machine, sticking his 38-year-old legs on the league's MVP is a viral Vine waiting to happen.
Enter Corey Brewer, an electric wing who drains treys, gets out in transition and, as of Game 1, must partner with Ariza to help make life difficult on the Splash Brothers.
Brewer doesn't force a ton of steals or block an inordinate number of field-goal attempts for a wing. But opponents are shooting just 22.5 percent from beyond the arc against him in the playoffs, compared to 33.4 percent against other Rockets players. He's also exceptional at denying passes while fighting over screens:
Both his three-point defense and ball prevention will be huge for the Rockets in Game 1 and beyond. More than 33.7 percent of the Warriors' total offense is coming from behind the rainbow, and 10.4 percent of their shots are coming off screens, a postseason high.
Any hope Houston has at chasing Golden State off the three-point line and creating a perimeter environment that dissuades Curry and Thompson from firing away starts with Ariza and, equally importantly, Brewer.
Key Matchup
Trevor Ariza vs. Golden State's Backcourt
This is not a cop out.
There is going to be a truckload of cross-matching over the course of this series, starting with Game 1. The Rockets don't have the freedom to tailor their defensive assignments by position, a tactical conundrum compounded by the Warriors' intermittent use of zero-in, five-out lineups that feature Green at center.
Prigioni and Harden will each need to pitch in against Curry and Thompson. And, as previously touched upon, Brewer will invariably soak up a lot of Terry's minutes. But the tone for Houston's perimeter defense will be set by Ariza.
Opponents are shooting at an above-average clip from downtown when being defended by him, and he's not wholly accustomed to defending players who are prominently used as both on- and off-ball scorers. Ariza is not your first choice to stick on any point guard either—especially one as crafty as Curry.
Yet when the alternative has the Rockets relying a mixture of Harden, Terry, Prigioni and Brewer, they have no choice.
In the two games Memphis stole from Golden State, Thompson and Curry combined to shoot a lackluster 29-of-68 from the field. The quickest way to obstructing the Warriors' offense is by containing them. And to do that, the Rockets will need Ariza to shimmy between defensive assignments immediately and constantly.
Prediction
Are we really in any position to doubt the Warriors at all, let alone at Oracle Arena, where they've lost just three times all season?
Nope.
Seven-game sets take a lot out of their participants. We saw the Clippers peter out against the Rockets, bogged down by both a lack of depth and their seven-contest affair with the San Antonio Spurs. The Rockets may be deeper, but they're bound to be physically and emotionally exhausted following their improbable second-round rally.
There's also the matter of Golden State being the better team by far, according to ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton:
Even if Game 1 doesn't act as a harbinger for the rest of this series, the Warriors enter in a comfortable spot. They're at home, well-rested and, as their second-round romp proved, built to win against any type of team, even if Curry and Thompson aren't bombing atomically.
Game 1, much like this series in general, is the Warriors' to win.
Prediction: Warriors defeat Rockets 106-97.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com, unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
