Pittsburgh Steelers: Realistic 2015 Projections for Every Major Stat Category
Long known for a statistically dominant defense, the Pittsburgh Steelers have taken on a new philosophy in recent years. Rather than continue to focus efforts on constructing the defense, general manager Kevin Colbert has assembled one of the top offenses in the league.
With the bulk of free agency over and the draft complete, the Steelers appear poised to continue their dominant ways on offense under offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Keith Butler will hope to steer a turnaround for the defense.
As both coordinators implement their schemes for the 2015 season, we will take an early look at how the Steelers will perform in the major stat categories this upcoming season.
Passing Offense
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The 2014 season was one for the record books for Pittsburgh’s offense. Behind Ben Roethlisberger, the offense set team records in five different categories: points scored (436), total yards (6,577), first downs (379) and 100-yard receiving games for an individual receiver (12).
The passing game was the catalyst as Roethlisberger tied for the NFL lead with 4,952 passing yards while finishing in the top 10 in completion percentage, touchdowns and passer rating. His year was highlighted by a record-breaking 522 yards and six touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts.
With the entire offense intact for the 2015, the offense has the opportunity to become even more prolific.
Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller, with their 278 receptions, 3,131 yards and 19 touchdowns, should combine to produce similar numbers again this season. Combine this with a more experienced Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant as well as rookie playmaker Sammie Coates, and Roethlisberger may have a hard time keeping everyone happy.
Expect Pittsburgh’s offense to lean on the passing attack while Bell serves his suspension to start the season. As a result, the passing numbers will increase from the 2014 numbers.
Though this was unthinkable as early as just a few seasons ago, Roethlisberger and the Steelers will lead the entire NFL in passing yards and finish in the top five in touchdowns.
Projection: 5,040 passing yards, 36 touchdowns
Rushing Offense
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Le’Veon Bell transformed himself prior to the start of training camp last year, and it paid off as he developed into one of the top running backs in the entire league.
A combination of power, speed and agility made Bell a dangerous threat as a runner and receiver. He led the AFC with 1,361 rushing yards and set numerous team records, including total yards from scrimmage (2,215) as well as receptions (83) and receiving yards (854) by a running back.
Although Bell dominated the touches, he wasn’t the only running option for the Steelers. Their other backs combined for 391 yards. Those numbers will increase this season as veteran DeAngelo Williams will step in as the starter for the first three games this season as Bell serves his suspension.
The ground attack should also get a boost from Year 2 of the Mike Munchak offensive line. His coaching helped elevate a stagnate running game to one that finished No. 16 in the league with 109.5 yards per game.
Given the fact that the Steelers will be without their lead back to start the year and that they added Sammie Coates and Jesse James to help the passing game, the running game will take a slight hit next year but will still manage to finish in the top half of the league.
Projection: 1,696 yards, 13 touchdowns
Scoring Offense
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In 2012, the Steelers wanted a change on offense, so they hired Todd Haley as their offensive coordinator. The result was the No. 22 scoring offense in the league—their worst ranking since they finished 28th in 1998.
The process has been slow, but after three years, the Steelers are poised to join the elite in offensive production. Their 27.3 points per game finished seventh in the league last season while scoring at least 27 points in nine of their 16 regular-season games.
In a three-week stretch to end October and begin November, the Steelers scored an average of 41.3 points per game—including 51 against the Colts—and showed what they were capable of when everything is clicking on offense.
Given their weakness on defense—allowing over 23 points per game over the past two seasons—the offense will once again have to carry the load. That should result in one of the top scoring offenses in the NFL. When it comes to talent, Tomlin thinks his team could be at the top of the league, per Joe Starkey of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:
"My expectation is they're capable of being the very best because we've got the goods,” Tomlin said. “We've got guys that are capable. We've got guys that know what they're doing. We've got guys that played together for an extended period of time now. So that's a reasonable expectation."
A challenging road schedule, which features multiple games on the West Coast, as well as consistency issues on offense will prevent the Steelers from leading the league in scoring, but they will finish the year in the top five.
Projection: 29.1 points per game
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Passing Defense
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Pittsburgh’s defensive backfield will undergo a transformation from last year. Longtime veterans—and all-time team greats—Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor are gone. Expected to take their place are Cortez Allen—or a rookie—and Shamarko Thomas.
Losing the veteran leadership will be tough to replace, but as far as talent goes, it was time for both players to retire. Besides, could the pass defense get much worse without them?
The Steelers finished 27th in the league with 253.1 yards per game allowed through the air. A lack of a pass rush and consistency from their defensive backs were the main problem. It also left them susceptible to the big play.
A new approach with Keith Butler means that Pittsburgh’s defense will enter 2015 with a relatively unknown scheme. Although he learned under LeBeau, Butler will surely implement his own philosophy and call the game differently.
The pass rush has been nearly invisible over the past several seasons, and it will enter the year with no proven edge defenders capable of starting 16 games. Can Arthur Moats surprise us? Yes. Could Jarvis Jones or Bud Dupree break through? Sure, but you cannot count on them—yet.
That leaves the pass defense up to the secondary, which will break in at least one new starter in Thomas and try to return Allen to the starting lineup. In addition to these two, the rookie duo of Senquez Golson and Doran Grant may also find itself playing key roles on passing downs.
It is possible that the defense continues to regress, but a more aggressive approach and youthful energy will help this unit improve. But it has a long way to go before it reaches the levels of years past.
Projection: 238.1 yards per game
Rushing Defense
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When the Steelers had a dominant defense, it was because of what they did in the trenches. With Casey Hampton, Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel, the defensive front helped control the line of scrimmage and dominate against the run.
In 2010, the rush defense was absurdly good, allowing only 62.8 yards per game. Last year, the defense allowed 100.3 yards per game, a respectable total that ranked sixth in the NFL but one that doesn’t tell the whole story.
The opposition had few issues running against Pittsburgh’s defense. Looking back at 2010, opponents averaged only 3.0 yards per carry and had one rush of 20 yards or more. By comparison, they ran for a healthy 4.4 yards per carry and 11 rushes of 20 yards or more last year.
Youth and inexperience will tempt opponents to test the Steelers secondary, which should let the run defense off the hook again this year. However, when teams try to run the ball, the front seven must do a better job controlling the line of scrimmage.
Pittsburgh’s defense is predicated on pressuring the quarterback and preventing the big play, but this is all set up by stopping the ground game to make teams one-dimensional.
Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt provide a strong duo at the ends, while a healthy Steve McLendon and massive Daniel McCullers (6'7", 352 lbs) should make for a formidable defensive line. Improved play from Jarvis Jones and Ryan Shazier will only help the cause and help the run defense improve in 2015.
Projection: 92.5 yards per game
Passing Defense
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As the greats have left Pittsburgh, the defense has not only lost its bark, but also its bite.
The inability to stop the run and the lack of a pass rush have made the defense pedestrian at best. The lack of sacks has had an obvious impact, but the lack of turnovers is a major concern. It is possible that these numbers get worse before they get better.
The Steelers lost Jason Worilds—their 2014 leader in sacks—to retirement, and James Harrison—arguably their best outside linebacker—is now 37 years old. They have four first-round selections ready to play the position, but only Lawrence Timmons is a proven commodity.
For the Steelers to improve on their 2014 33 sacks, they must rely on a creative scheme from Butler as well as breakout performances from Jones, Shazier and Tuitt. Even if all of this happens, the team may only experience a moderate gain in sacks.
A greater amount of pressure generated from this young group of defenders will help create turnovers, but so will technique. They must become opportunistic and try to force fumbles. They also need to play the ball better while in the air.
The latter was a focus in the draft as the Steelers selected three defensive backs, two of which put up incredible numbers in college. Golson set a team record with 10 interceptions, and Gerod Holliman tied an FBS record with 14 interceptions.
All three will compete for a role, but expect no more than one of these players to play significant snaps with the defense. That will leave veterans such as Mike Mitchell and William Gay—who had three interception returns for a touchdown last year—to pick up the slack.
Until this defense proves itself, it will be hard to expect big numbers, but the potential is there for a slight improvement.
Projections: 35 sacks, 12 interceptions, 11 fumble recoveries
Scoring Defense
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Since 2004, the Steelers finished as the top scoring defense four times and have finished in the top five a total of six times. In fact, they had not finished outside of the top 10 since 1999—that was until the past two seasons.
After finishing 14th last year, the Steelers fell to 18th in the league in 2014 with 23.0 points allowed per game. A new defensive coordinator and an injection of youth could mean that they fall further this year, or a fresh set of ideas and personnel could have a reverse effect.
A more aggressive approach would put more pressure on opposing offenses, but it would also leave the Steelers more susceptible to the big play. However, with all of the speed and potential that they have on defense, it is only a matter of time before improvement is shown on the field.
Pittsburgh allowed 23 points or more in nine regular-season games last season but showed improvement down the stretch. After a 35-32 loss to the New Orleans Saints, the defense clamped down and allowed 17.5 points per game.
However, the Steelers will face the toughest schedule in the league, with 11 games against teams that had winning records in 2014. They also have to stop a number of talented quarterbacks, such as Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Joe Flacco and maybe Tom Brady.
The combination of an inexperienced defense under new leadership and a challenging schedule will mean growing pains for the defense. Early-season struggles will mean the Steelers will start slow out of the gate, but they will improve as the season progresses.
Despite potential improvements, this defense is still at least a year away, and the offense will once against have to carry the team to the playoffs.
Projection: 22.8 points allowed per game
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all stats are courtesy of ESPN.com, and roster information is courtesy of Steelers.com.
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