
Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Each Detroit Lions Rookie
What do you want to be when you grow up?
The Detroit Lions rookies might not be faced with such an open-ended question, nor will their lives or careers be completely defined by 2015. However, each of them certainly covets a high mark in their first year.
That's what we'll be focused on here for all seven draft picks and two undrafted free agents. Unfortunately, we can't just let a good thing ride without bringing up the scenario that is keeping these young men up at night.
For the sake of entertainment (and to keep the jinxing gods at bay), you won't find any talk of injuries in the following slides. That's obviously the worst-case scenario for every player involved.
But you will discover some interesting (and I think creative) stories that should keep you entertained. For a few minutes anyway.
UDFA RB Zach Zenner
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Best Case
The easy answer would be for the former South Dakota State Jackrabbit to post his fourth straight 2,000-yard season, but even he might concede that outcome is far-fetched. So let's first stick with him making the roster over George Winn.
Inevitably, at least one of the running backs will get nicked up, forcing Zenner to take the field. For his sake, let's make it Week 6 against the Chicago Bears. Chicago's defense will undoubtedly be better because it's impossible for it to take a step back, but there should be enough room for Zenner to be entrusted with running out the clock. A 10-carry, 53-yard day would be a nice introduction to the league.
He'll then finish the season as the fourth back with an argument for more responsibility next year after racking up 180 rushing yards and becoming a core special teamer.
Worst Case
It's the easy answer, but it certainly isn't far-fetched. Zenner isn't a lock to make this team. If he develops ball-security issues in the preseason or isn't able to find a role on special teams, he won't be able to overtake Winn and will be looking for work by the end of August.
UDFA S Isaiah Johnson
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Best Case
Isaiah Johnson didn't mince words when explaining why he chose the Lions over four other teams:
"UDFA safety Isaiah Johnson chose Detroit Lions because of James Ihedigbo contract dispute http://t.co/qrLYJCQBmT
— Detroit Lions News (@LionsMLive) May 11, 2015"
While it's hard to see James Ihedigbo anywhere else but Detroit next season, the door is at least slightly cracked for the possibility. Johnson could then use his master's-level intellect to quickly absorb Detroit's defense and start throwing around his weight near the line of scrimmage.
His only competition for the spot then would be Isa Abdul-Quddus (a more natural free safety) and Don Carey. With those two in his sights, he could at least get on the field Week 1 on early downs considering his superior tackling ability.
Worst Case
Much like Zach Zenner, it's not impossible to see Johnson suffering the usual fate for undrafted free agents. It's unlikely after the $12,000 signing bonus, but if he fails to bring down professional ball-carriers, his value will certainly be in question for a team that relies heavily on its secondary against the run.
7th-Round OT Corey Robinson
3 of 9Best Case
Corey Robinson proves his potential in the preseason by dominating second- and third-team defensive ends and outside linebackers. He won't be in the running for a starting gig, no matter how wide open the coaches say the right-side competition is, but proves too valuable to kick down to the practice squad.
That leaves him on the 53-man roster to learn behind relative veterans LaAdrian Waddle and Cornelius Lucas while the Lions send former tight end Michael Williams through waivers. Robinson then learns to properly get wide in pass protection in practice, performs admirably in mop-up duty and sets himself up to compete for the job in 2016.
Worst Case
During Detroit's Week 3 matchup with the Denver Broncos, Waddle and Lucas go down, leaving the coaching staff no choice but to turn the right-tackle responsibility over to Robinson. Lined up across from him? Linebacker Von Miller.
The Bronco proceeds to give Robinson a baptism by fire. The former All-Pro is able to evade Robinson's expansive reach and use quickness to cross over the occasionally lumbering 6'7" tackle, shattering his confidence. The next year brings another young tackle to Detroit's stable, who is full of youthful enthusiasm and optimism, leaving Robinson to fall further into his career-shattering spiral.
6th-Round CB Quandre Diggs
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Best Case
Quandre Diggs was built to be a slot cornerback in the NFL. Instead of people focusing on his 5'9" height, they'll emphasize that his compact size is perfect for jamming smaller slot receivers and mirroring them when they get off the line.
Once he overtakes veterans Bill Bentley and Josh Wilson in the preseason, he'll battle it out with Nevin Lawson, who is still recovering from a nasty dislocated foot, for the nickelback starting duties. A solid tackling effort against C.J. Anderson and a bait-and-pick of Peyton Manning in Week 3 should be enough to finish the transition from undervalued college player to bona fide starting nickelback.
"Quandre Diggs. Texas Longhorn to a Detroit Lion. @qdiggs6 pic.twitter.com/Cp9Txus6CU
— Detroit Lions Fans (@DetLionBlood) May 13, 2015"
Worst Case
The injuries to Lawson and Bentley don't give Diggs the extra reps he was hoping for. Instead, he looks lost dealing with defensive coordinator Teryl Austin's calls and can't figure out how to fight with NFL receivers without drawing a flag.
When Diggs does see the field, he starts to play tentatively because his confidence is shot due to the never-ending avalanche of flags. He stays glued to the bench, only seeing time in blowouts.
5th-Round FB Michael Burton
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Best Case
This one is well within reach. Michael Burton will start the season as the team's top (only) fullback on the roster, putting the current competition to bed with ease. He'll create the creases necessary for Joique Bell and Ameer Abdullah to rush for 2,000 yards combined while giving Matthew Stafford time to find his targets.
Oh, and he'll prove his worth in the passing game. Since defenses will be locked in on Detroit's burgeoning receiving talent, Burton will notch 15 receptions that go for eight first downs and four touchdowns.
Worst Case
There's a middle ground, which is where Burton will probably land, but the worst case doesn't include him on September's roster. In this scenario, he fails to move NFL linebackers out of holes and gets trucked too often in pass protection during the preseason. Emil Igwenagu wins the job by default. Everybody suffers.
4th-Round DT Gabe Wright
6 of 9Best Case
The Lions get an incredible return on their 2016 third-rounder when Gabe Wright proves he just needed better talent around him in college. And everything the beat writers are seeing in minicamp continues to be the case come the regular season:
"Among the things that stood out in 20 mins of individual drills: DT Gabe Wright is quick off the ball and has good movement skills.
— Josh Katzenstein (@jkatzenstein) May 9, 2015"
Wright has more natural talent than Caraun Reid. He'll get a chance to prove it behind Tyrunn Walker. As defenses wear down from the starters, he comes in and racks up 5.5 sacks, providing the interior pass-rushing presence Detroit needs to be successful.
Worst Case
Well, he's certainly going to make the roster barring an off-the-field mistake of epic proportions. However, Wright's worst case won't set him up for a guaranteed 2016 spot.
His explosive first step leads to a crazy number of costly offsides calls. Instead of recalibrating his jumps, he gets sheepish and fails to take advantage of his best natural gift, giving the Lions little to no production.
3rd-Round CB Alex Carter
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Best Case
There isn't a scenario that doesn't involve injuries that would put Alex Carter in the starting lineup for Week 1. But there could be a scenario where he proves too capable to keep off the field by Week 3.
In it, he takes to a defense that emphasizes his size and press-man ability. After Demaryius Thomas abuses old man Rashean Mathis, Carter gets a chance to match up with the physical wide receiver and battles him to a draw. Carter never looks back.
Worst Case
The refrain for his 2016 offseason will be "Maybe he can play safety?"
Carter never looks comfortable trying to stay with his assignments. He ends up looking over to the sideline for reassurance before every snap because he's not sure he's lined up properly and consistently opens up his hips early because professional receivers are too fast for him.
The seasons ends with him comparing safeties' salaries against how much cornerbacks earn.
2nd-Round RB Ameer Abdullah
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Best Case
Every Nebraska fan who visits the comments sections of the Detroit Lions articles is proven 100 percent correct here. In fact, the entire state takes to Honolulu Blue to balance out the red that carpets the region.
Ameer Abdullah is everything that so many pundits have said he is. He is the perfect complement to Joique Bell, garners around half of the carries and knocks on the door of 1,000 yards. Then he takes to the air as his play-action value increases, catching 33 receptions for another 550 yards. His season ends with an Offensive Rookie of the Year nod.
Worst Case
The fumbling issue rears its ugly head with Jim Schwartz-like intensity. NFL hits combined with an emphasis on ripping and punching the ball leads to one fumble a game for the first seven weeks.
When the Lions take off for London, Abdullah becomes so concerned with ball security that he fails to find the holes Michael Burton and the revamped offensive line create. He ends the game without a fumble but a 2.4-yard rushing average. Mikel Leshoure looks good by comparison.
1st-Round OG Laken Tomlinson
9 of 9Best Case
Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi listens to his offensive line coach, who recently told Kyle Meinke of MLive.com that his guys were going to "com[e] off the ball" this year. And Laken Tomlinson matches that enthusiasm with the type of tenacity only his brother guard would understand.
Tomlinson and Larry Warford then go on to form the premier guard combo in the league, paving the way for inside-zone runs that set Ameer Abdullah and Joique Bell up for success snap after snap. As the running game becomes overwhelming for opposing defenses, Tomlinson is able to keep Matthew Stafford clean while he picks apart overmatched secondaries with play-action passes.
Worst Case
Lombardi, after achieving little success running against San Diego's solid linebackers in Week 1, scraps the power game and reinstates the stretch play. Tomlinson's lack of lateral athletic ability leaves his running backs open to devastating hits that give Abdullah fumble-itis.
The Lions, meanwhile, are left trying to figure out if they have two right guards, or if Manny Ramirez can really be counted on to hold down the left side.
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