How Much Hope Should Houston Rockets Fans Have Following Game 5 vs. Clippers?
The Houston Rockets' 124-103 Game 5 win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday was a 48-minute performance born out of desperation and salvation. But commendable as it was on all fronts, it likely just delayed the inevitable.
For one night, all the stars aligned. Facing a 3-1 series deficit, Houston gashed the Clippers, 64-46, in the paint, outscored the opposition by 14 in transition and built a 58-39 advantage on the glass.
According to ESPN Stats & Info, Houston's scoring total in the lane was impressive even by its high standards:
James Harden paced the Rockets by recording his first career playoff triple-double, which consisted of 26 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. A 20-point, 15-rebound showing from Dwight Howard, coupled with Trevor Ariza's series-high 22 points, was the icing on the cake.
After two lousy efforts in Hollywood by Houston, it was back to the basics in more comfortable surroundings.
Head coach Kevin McHale told TNT's Tracy Wolfson between the third and fourth quarters that his team was "trying to play like how we normally play."
And in that regard, the Rockets succeeded.
Houston's near-picture-perfect effort also came on a night when absolutely nothing went right for the Clippers beyond double-doubles from Blake Griffin (30 points, 16 rebounds) and Chris Paul (22 points and 10 assists).
The Clippers—which entered Tuesday night shooting a Western Conference-best 38.8 percent from three—made good on 25.7 percent of their 35 three-point attempts. J.J. Redick was in an uncharacteristic funk, as were Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford.
Redick finished with nine points on 3-of-12 shooting (1-of-8 from three), while Rivers and Crawford managed eight and five points, respectively. Matt Barnes decided to join the ineptitude party with a 1-of-8 showing as well.
As Bleacher Report's Michael Pina explained, the team's on/off splits were nightmarish:
"I didn't like our offense at all, honestly," head coach Doc Rivers told reporters after the loss, according to CBS Sports NBA. "I know that's not the team that I've gotten accustomed to watching play."
To pile on, DeAndre Jordan (13 points, 11 rebounds) picked up his third foul with nine minutes and 14 seconds remaining in the second quarter and sat for the remainder of the first half. Factoring in garbage time, the Clippers center played just 24 minutes.
The Rockets should be commended for winning with their backs against the wall. That's how teams are supposed to respond when faced with elimination.
And yet it's probably not going to matter.
According to WhoWins.com, teams that go up 3-1 have emerged with a series victory 96.4 percent of the time. In second-round tilts, that percentage increases fractionally to 96.7 percent.
A nuanced view provided by ESPN's Ben Alamar gives the Rockets a slightly better chance at mounting a comeback, but the primary point remains unchanged:
That's pretty unimpeachable evidence.
Of course, there are exceptions to every rule, and the Rockets are hoping to represent one of those few historic outliers.
It's just hard to imagine all the pieces falling perfectly into place for three games in a row.
ESPN.com's Arash Markazi even noted that the Clippers' Game 5 performance wasn't congruous with how the team has played over the past couple of weeks:
Paul also continued to pick and choose his spots with ease, per Synergy Sports Tech:
Tuesday night, five of Paul's seven misses came from three, and he still shot 44.4 percent from beyond the arc. In selective fashion, Paul kept his offensive portfolio diversified, draining four triples and two mid-range jumpers from the right elbow while sprinkling in three finishes around the rim for good measure.
Harden proclaimed that the Rockets "found our swagger" in Game 5, according to CBS Sports NBA, but truthfully, the Clippers have never had a problem finding theirs.
The supporting cast may have fallen flat Tuesday evening, but if Games 3 and 4 were any indication, their bouncing back at Staples Center is more likely than not.
With six home games under their belt during the postseason, the Clippers rank No. 1 among all playoff teams in scoring margin under familiar roofs. While posting a 4-2 record in home games, the Clippers have outscored opponents by 11.2 points a night, shot 49.4 percent from the field and converted 40.5 percent of their threes.
On the road, the Rockets haven't been so fortunate. In four such appearances, opponents have outscored Houston by an average of 17 points per game and posted a record of 3-1.
If the Rockets can somehow survive Game 6 on Thursday and swing the series back to Toyota Center for a decisive Game 7, then the odds will start to shift in their favor. Houston ranks third in home scoring this postseason, and as Tuesday night proved, the Rockets can represent an unstoppable force when they harness an aggressive mindset from opening tip to final buzzer.
But with the ball quite literally back in the Clippers' court, Houston's rekindled offensive flame might not be enough to thwart mounting evidence that suggests its late push will ultimately be futile.
At this point, it may just be too little, too late.
All statistics are current as of May 13 and courtesy of NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
Alec Nathan covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @AlecBNathan.
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