Early Projections for New England Patriots' Final 53-Man Roster
Though secondary free agency will add some depth and under-the-radar additions, the majority of the NFL's roster-building phase is over. The New England Patriots are already at the 90-man offseason roster limit, and though they can certainly shuffle the bottom to add a veteran such as Dan Connolly, the core of the 2015 Patriots is in place.
We went through a complete roster breakdown last week, placing a particular emphasis on rookies and the roles they might play. Let's change things up this week and give our first official 53-man roster projection in the pre-workout phase of the offseason. Obviously training camp and preseason will change this picture, but on a roster as deep as New England's, it's hard to imagine significant changes taking place.
Here's a look at what I expect the Patriots roster to look like in Week 1, starting with a position suddenly thrown into tremendous turmoil.
Quarterback
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On Roster (2): Jimmy Garoppolo, Garrett Gilbert
Suspended: Tom Brady
By the time you read this, there's a decent chance the NFL will have handed down a suspension to Tom Brady for Deflategate. Even if Brady gets his punishment reduced upon appeal, it seems highly unlikely the league will let him totally off the hook, given the time and resources it has already poured into unearthing evidence against the Patriots.
Regardless of what you think of the whole episode, the reality is that New England will likely start the season with second-year quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo as its starter. Garoppolo has earned positive reviews thus far in his career, though his only extended action last season came in a frenzied 10-of-17, 90-yard passing performance against the Buffalo Bills in Week 17.
But it's hard to take anything away from that, especially given how many players the Pats rested in that glorified exhibition. Garoppolo does get a bit of a scheduling break; of New England's first four opponents, three of them finished in the league's bottom half against the pass, based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.
The Pats place a premium on quarterbacks they've developed, so it's highly unlikely they'll turn away from Garoppolo, at least to start the season. Gilbert is the other quarterback currently on the roster, though ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss speculated that a free agent like Matt Flynn could end up serving as Garoppolo's backup in the event of a Brady suspension.
Running Back
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On Roster (5): Jonas Gray, Brandon Bolden, Travaris Cadet, James White, Tyler Gaffney
Suspended: LeGarrette Blount
Unlike Brady, we know for sure that Blount will miss the first game of the season. It shouldn't be assumed that Blount will make the final roster, by the way. The 29-year-old has no guaranteed money on his contract, meaning the Pats wouldn't have any dead cap money for cutting him, as Spotrac outlines.
Though he has been a good program fit the past two years, it's not hard to envision him off the roster if a younger alternative such as Gaffney impresses in the offseason.
Elsewhere, the most intriguing battle will be between White and Cadet for the passing back role that has been so integral to New England's offense over the years. Cadet was promising in snagging 38 catches last year for New Orleans, but neither has any extended track record. If neither separates himself, Cadet's Bayou teammate Pierre Thomas is an available alternative who could probably hold down the spot for 2015.
Bolden also figures to make the roster due to his role as a core special teamer, while Gray could be the Week 1 starter if he beats out Gaffney. Although this is a decidedly unsexy group, the Pats have made due without a star running back since Corey Dillon's retirement, often banking on their offensive line to make the biggest impact in the ground game.
Wide Receiver
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On Roster (4): Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola, Brandon Gibson
With their emphasis on tight ends, the Pats can afford to carry fewer wide receivers than other teams. None of their depth options are really ace special teamers (excluding Matthew Slater, who I'm not counting as a receiver in these projections), so it doesn't make much sense to keep a fifth receiver who won't play a meaningful game-day role.
The top three are locked in, so the battle could be between free-agent signee Gibson and 2013 draft picks Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce. Dobson and Boyce combined for four games and three catches last season, so the honeymoon period is clearly over. If neither exhibits demonstrable progress this offseason, it will be time for the Pats to cut ties and accept the sunk cost of the second- and fourth-rounder they spent on them.
Gibson actually looms as the most intriguing option of the roster bubble trio. He emerged as the Dolphins' most reliable receiver over the first half of the 2013 campaign, accruing 30 catches and three scores over seven games, before a debilitating torn patellar tendon (ironically suffered against the Pats).
Gibson was a shell of himself last year and fell down Miami's depth chart, but another year removed from the injury, perhaps he recaptures his 2013 form and becomes a viable target.
Brian Tyms is the other contender for the fourth receiver spot, as he held down the spot last year while Dobson and Boyce floundered. The latter two are on the verge of adding two more chapters to Bill Belichick's surprisingly lengthy catalog of wide receiver draft busts, and Gibson's signing should put Dobson and Boyce firmly on the hot seat this offseason.
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Tight End
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On Roster (4): Rob Gronkowski, Scott Chandler, Tim Wright, A.J. Derby
Gronk and Chandler aren't exactly contrasting stylistically, as both are in-line "Y" tight end types, but they should help turn the Pats back to a more "12" personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB) type of offense.
Belichick always seemed to prefer the play-calling versatility that grouping provided, and though the Patriots have moved away from two-tight end sets the last two seasons out of necessity, they now have the guns to turn back if they choose.
Wright is probably the No. 3 tight end, though he also offers the most unique skill set as a 6'4" target who typically splits away from the core of the formation. After arriving in Foxborough on Aug. 26 as part of the Logan Mankins trade, Wright started his inaugural Pats season behind the eight ball.
With a full offseason to actually learn the system rather than just package-specific plays, perhaps the physically intriguing Wright surpasses Chandler to pair with Gronk.
For now, I'll also put Derby ahead of Michael Hoomanawanui, who has been on the roster the past three seasons. The sixth-round rookie is incredibly raw, having played the position for just one year at Arkansas, but much like Hoomanawanui, he possesses the versatility to line up in the backfield as an H-back or on the line.
Given Derby's superior physical tool kit and cheaper salary, he might hold the upper hand if he shows a foundation to build upon.
Offensive Line
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On Roster (9): Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Tre' Jackson, Ryan Wendell, Bryan Stork, Marcus Cannon, Cameron Fleming, Shaq Mason, Dan Connolly
Nine players is one more than the Patriots usually keep around, but given the depth issues they faced at offensive line last season, it's not unreasonable to think they might err cautiously to start the 2015 season. Moreover, with the fourth-round rookie Mason more of a developmental player, the Pats could still justify some of their depth linemen.
The one name that stands out here is Connolly, who I'm projecting the Patriots to re-sign. Some might write off Connolly's return after the Pats took Jackson and Mason on Day 3 of the draft, but it's always precarious relying on a rookie to start immediately. Jackson has a very real chance to start next to Florida State teammate Bryan Stork, but he'll first need to shed weight and prove that his knee concerns were overstated.
Otherwise, most of this unit is fairly locked in. The Pats have an important decision to make in regard to extending Solder, whose contract expires after this season, but the fifth-year tackle will continue to protect the blind side. Cannon and Fleming have shown promising flashes throughout their careers, giving the Patriots enviable tackle depth.
Defensive Line
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On Roster (9): Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Malcom Brown, Dominique Easley, Jabaal Sheard, Sealver Siliga, Alan Branch, Zach Moore, Trey Flowers
Despite this position being the deepest spot on New England's roster, the Pats actually don't have many difficult decisions to make. The one player I mulled keeping around was Chris Jones, but given that Chandler Jones has the ability to rush from inside techniques, there's not much need to keep someone around to back up Dominique Easley's sub-package role.
This unit also boasts the best complementary range of skill sets. New England can still play jumbo 5-2 fronts featuring Siliga and Branch as two-gappers, while offseason additions Sheard and Brown have the versatility to play from numerous alignments. Belichick enjoyed the luxury of getting creative with the secondary last season, and he'll have that same privilege in the trenches this year.
Most importantly, New England should be able to employ an earnest rotation for the first time in years. Belichick has run his workhorses into the ground in recent seasons, with Jones, Ninkovich and the departed Vince Wilfork playing an unsustainable number of snaps. That should change this season, potentially maximizing individual production.
Linebacker
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On Roster (6): Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower, Jerod Mayo, Geneo Grissom, Matthew Wells, Dane Fletcher
I'm projecting another free-agent signing here in the form of old friend Dane Fletcher. The 28-year-old doesn't appear likely to re-sign with Tampa Bay after completing his one-year contract in 2014, and Reiss reported that he had visited Foxborough after the draft.
Sheard and the third-round rookie Grissom are both natural ends who have the ability to play linebacker if needed, but Fletcher has already proven himself a valuable reserve linebacker capable of also contributing heavily on special teams.
Elsewhere, I'd expect rookie Matthew Wells to emerge from the hodgepodge of depth players, given his freakish testing numbers. Wells is someone who should profile as an ace special teams contributor, which could displace Chris White and provide him more immediate value than someone like James Morris or Darius Fleming.
This position's outlook could further change if the Pats follow through and sign Brandon Spikes, who surprisingly took a visit as well, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. But Spikes seems more redundant than Fletcher, given that Hightower has adapted nicely as the team's primary run-stuffer from the second level. Coupled with his bitter divorce from the team last year, Spikes just feels like a much unlikelier fit.
Cornerback
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On Roster (5): Bradley Fletcher, Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, Kyle Arrington, Darryl Roberts
It's anyone's guess as to how this position actually shakes out, and it wouldn't be surprising if multiple names here failed to make the final roster. Despite his disastrous 2014 campaign, Fletcher has the longest track record of above-average play on the roster, so he could turn into a nice buy-low signing if he plays closer to his St. Louis rather than Philadelphia form.
Butler and Ryan are the most promising possibilities to become long-term answers at the position, but they also embody the quandary the Patriots face next season. The two are entirely different players, with Butler's physical press-coverage tendencies contrasting with Ryan's fluidity and instincts in off coverage. It's helpful to play hybrid coverages, but it does no good to fill a roster with corners who have little overlap in skill set.
There's a golden opportunity for an off-the-radar player such as Dax Swanson or Chimdi Chekwa to emerge and earn playing time, though I've got seventh-rounder Darryl Roberts as the position's early sleeper. Truthfully, though, it's hard to say anything definitive about New England's corner position until we actually have a practice and preseason sample to evaluate.
Safety
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On Roster (5): Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Nate Ebner, Jordan Richards, Duron Harmon
Given the dearth of talent at cornerback, it wouldn't be surprising to see Belichick get more creative with his safety usage next season. I'd expect more three-safety "Big Nickel" looks, especially if the Stanford rookie Richards sheds his overdrafted label and doesn't prove overwhelmed as a box safety.
McCourty is obviously locked in as one starter, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Harmon overtake Chung as the second safety, especially if the Pats play more two-high coverages next year. Harmon often played the deep centerfield role when McCourty dropped down to cover a tight end or in certain dime packages.
The Pats figure to play less single-high safety given their lack of press corners, and Harmon makes more sense for the types of coverage concepts the Pats might play.
I chose to keep Ebner on the roster over Tavon Wilson, figuring that one will make the final cut. Both are core special teamers, but Pro Football Focus graded Ebner as the better player in the third phase, while also crediting him with six tackles to Wilson's four.
Moreover, because Wilson was a second-round pick, while Ebner was a sixth-rounder, the former's cap hit is more than twice as large, according to Spotrac. If it's close, those economics could push the decision in Ebner's favor.
Special Teams
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On Roster (4): Stephen Gostkowski (K), Ryan Allen (P), Joe Cardona (LS), Matthew Slater (ST)
I've moved Slater here instead of keeping him at wide receiver, but the overall tally shouldn't be a surprise. The only question is whether the Patriots or the Navy will have Cardona's services. It's unclear if the fifth-round pick will receive an exemption to delay his military requirement, but given that the Pats released Tyler Ott, the only other long snapper on their roster, perhaps Belichick feels optimistically about that possibility.
There could also be an extension for Gostkowski, as his $4.59 million cap hit is the 10th-highest on the team in 2015, per Spotrac. It's poor value to have the 30-year-old play under the franchise tag, but given his efficacy on both field goals and kickoffs, it would be surprising if the Pats did not sign him to a long-term extension.
Overall, this is a rock-solid unit without any major deficiencies. The Patriots finished as the fifth-best special teams unit in the league last year by DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and one would expect them to finish in that same elite range again in 2015.
Final Tally
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| Position Unit | # of Players |
| Quarterback | 2 |
| Running Back | 5 |
| Wide Receiver | 4 |
| Tight End | 4 |
| Offensive Line | 9 |
| Total Offense | 24 |
| Defensive Line | 9 |
| Linebacker | 6 |
| Cornerback | 5 |
| Safety | 5 |
| Total Defense | 25 |
| Special Teams | 4 |
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