Ranking the Oklahoma City Thunder's Biggest Needs in the 2015 NBA Draft
With the arrival of new head coach Billy Donovan, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s biggest offseason question has been answered. General manager Sam Presti and his staff can now focus on what they do best: the NBA draft.
The lone positive from the team’s disastrous 2014-15 season is that Presti will be working with a lottery pick—most probably the 14th pick in the draft (according to NBA.com, there’s only a 1.8 percent chance OKC moves into the top three). That’s a juicy spot for a talent evaluator like Presti, who will undoubtedly be trying to use the pick to fill the Thunder’s most glaring needs on the wing.
The Thunder only have the $3.3 million taxpayer mid-level exception to offer other teams' free agents (they can, however, exceed the cap to re-sign Enes Kanter and/or Kyle Singler). With the salary cap on the brink of a gargantuan leap, that kind of money is unlikely to bring in a significant piece that will drastically affect OKC’s championship odds next season.
With Kevin Durant entering free agency in the summer of 2016, the upcoming 2015-16 season is a major crossroads for the organization. The 14th pick in the draft is one of its only ways to bring in a cheap, young and talented player that fills OKC’s biggest needs and could play a role in a title run.
1. A Two-Way Shooting Guard
This is unquestionably the Thunder’s biggest need. If you combined the best traits of Andre Roberson, Anthony Morrow, Dion Waiters and Jeremy Lamb and put them into one player, OKC would be totally satisfied with the result.
Unfortunately, science has not come that far yet and the Thunder are left with four limited shooting guards. Each of them possess at least one glaring weakness—the kind of flaws that will be ruthlessly exploited by good coaches in the playoffs.
Presti shouldn’t compromise value and/or talent to fill a need, but he really has to take a 2-guard if the options are there. He’s unlikely to find a rookie that will immediately step in and become a two-way force, but the team desperately needs a shooting guard that doesn’t neuter its offense or defense whenever he’s on the court.
Potential Draft Targets
R.J. Hunter, Georgia State: Hunter ended his collegiate career with some heroics in the NCAA Tournament, but his final season at Georgia State hurt his draft stock. His shooting percentages dipped (39.5 FG%, 30.5 3P%), which is a big concern for a player whose primary asset is his shooting ability.
Chad Ford of ESPN isn’t too concerned with the drop-off, however, and he has the Thunder selecting Hunter in his Grade A mock draft:
"I'm a bigger fan of Hunter than most. I think he's an elite shooter (ignore his shooting this year; he took every shot with two defenders draped on him), has elite length for his position (he has a 6-foot-10 wingspan) and he has a crazy high basketball IQ. He has a lot of Klay Thompson in his game and a Klay Thompson-type player is exactly what the Thunder need.
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Hunter isn’t a lockdown defender, but his length makes him a pesky one with a knack for obstructing passing lanes and affecting jumpers. He’s also comfortable making plays off the dribble in addition to being a spot-up shooter. If OKC is confident in his shooting ability, Hunter is ready to play from Day 1.
Devin Booker, Kentucky: At this point, Booker is a one-trick pony. He’s one of the best pure shooters in the draft, but he doesn’t do much of anything else. Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman elaborated on his skill set in a recent draft big board:
"Devin Booker projects as your textbook shot-maker—a wing who can knock down jumpers and finish off the catch, but one who struggles to create his own offense.
Rarely did we see Booker score after putting the ball on the floor and separating. He's not someone you want to isolate one-on-one and ask to get your team a bucket. Booker is at his best spotting up off the ball and running off screens and shooting.
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Despite his somewhat limited game, two things make Booker an appealing target for the Thunder. Firstly, they don’t need their shooting guard to create his own shot. In fact, it would be better if their shooting was more of an off-ball, spot-up type. Secondly, the kid is only 18 years old!
Booker showed a high basketball IQ in his only season at Kentucky, as well as a willingness to defend, but it’s unclear whether he’ll contribute much during his rookie season in the NBA.
The Klay Thompson comparison works for Booker as well, but OKC may not be willing to wait for it to come to fruition.
2. Backup Small Forward to Spell Durant
If the aforementioned shooting guard options are on the board, it’s hard to envision Presti passing on them. He may opt to do so, however, if there is an elite small forward prospect still up for grabs.
For starters, the two targets mentioned below are capable of playing at shooting guard if necessary. Small forward is their best fit, but wings in the NBA are becoming fairly interchangeable so there’s no need to pigeonhole them like we used to.
Furthermore, the Thunder could really use a quality backup for Durant. His minutes will need to be monitored carefully next season to keep him healthy and fresh for the postseason. Additionally, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to draft a small forward (if he’s the best player available), not only as a bigger 2 for next season, but as insurance in case Durant leaves.
Potential Draft Targets
Mario Hezonja, Croatia: It’s always terrifying to think about taking a prospect like Hezonja because we haven’t seen enough of him. We haven’t had the chance to compare him to other draft prospects, and his playing time at Barcelona has been limited. Despite all of the uncertainty, Hezonja’s upside is tantalizing, according to Wasserman:
"He's lethal from behind the arc, where he's shooting 40.3 percent. And with world-class athleticism, 6'8" size, the ability to handle the ball and create, Hezonja projects as a mismatch for opposing 2-guards and wings.
There is some risk associated with Hezonja, given the limited game film he's provided us (and scouts) to break down. But if Hezonja pans out, the payoff should justify top-10 value.
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There are questions about his defensive effort and how he’ll adjust to life in the NBA, but Hezonja could play both the 2 and the 3 for the Thunder.
Kelly Oubre Jr., Kansas: Based on talent and upside, Oubre should definitely be under consideration if he’s still on the board. But there are questions about how quickly he can put all his gifts together, if he does so at all.
His shooting stroke was inconsistent, as was his effort and assertiveness. That’s not uncommon for freshmen trying to find their place at a storied program like Kansas, but it is a concern for NBA front offices deciding whether or not he’s their man.
ESPN’s Fran Fraschilla is optimistic about Oubre’s long-term potential:
"I saw major improvement in his effort and with the increased opportunities to play, Oubre displayed a good feel for the game, excellent defensive instincts and a shooting stroke that can become a major weapon for him in time… Oubre Jr., who will turn 20 in December, is a long way from being a finished NBA product but he is also a long way from where he was to start his freshman season. Eventually, his defense and his shooting can become staples in his game and if he exhibits a more consistent level of intensity, he'll evolve from a "work in progress" into a bona fide player in the future.
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Even with that glowing review, however, comes the question of timing. With Durant’s departure looming, drafting a “work in progress” isn’t the best option for OKC.
3. Center In Case Enes Kanter Leaves
Backup point guard is another potential need, but since D.J. Augustin is a decent backup PG on a cheap contract ($3 million) for next season, center is more glaring if the Thunder are concerned Kanter will leave town
Both Kanter and Presti have said all the right things about negotiating a long-term deal, but the OKC depth chart gets very thin at C if Kanter leaves. Steven Adams is a starting-caliber center, but then the only other passable option is moving Serge Ibaka to the 5 since both Nick Collison and Mitch McGary are 4s.
Of course, the draft comes before free agency, so OKC won’t definitively know how the Kanter situation will play out. If they’re concerned about his defensive flaws or the salary he’ll command, Presti could turn to the prospects discussed below.
Potential Draft Target
Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky: Given Serge Ibaka’s migration to the three-point line, Cauley-Stein is an amazing fit on this Thunder team. His skill set greatly overlaps with that of Steven Adams, but the draft prospect is a better athlete and defender already.
Cauley-Stein’s offensive skill set is extremely limited, and it probably won’t improve over his NBA career. But we’ve seen high-efficiency big men thrive as lob-finishers and roll men in the pick-and-roll (like Tyson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan). Those players are excellent comparisons for the type of player Cauley-Stein can become if he fully grasps the intricacies of the professional game.
If you’re drafting this Kentucky big man, it’s not for his offense. Cauley-Stein was an absolute monster for the Wildcats defense last season. Not only was he a dominant rim-protector, but he had the foot speed and agility to shut down perimeter players on switches.
How on earth are opposing offenses going to score against a Thunder frontcourt of Ibaka and Cauley-Stein? Both erase shots at the rim, but they will also have no trouble defending the pick-and-roll. Not to mention that both will outrun the majority of NBA big men in transition when the Thunder get the ball back.
Presti will probably lean toward one of the aforementioned wing players with the 14th pick, but Cauley-Stein definitely deserves consideration if he's still available. That's a big if, however, since Cauley-Stein is expected to be a top-10 pick.
Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin: Cauley-Stein is an unlikely option, but Frank Kaminsky could very well still be on the board when the Thunder make their pick. If Presti wants to draft a center instead of re-signing Kanter, Kaminsky and Myles Turner (Texas) are possibilities. Turner has more upside, but Kaminsky makes more sense for a team looking to win now.
Kaminsky comes with flaws on the defensive end, but OKC could use Adams and Ibaka to cover for him (much like they'd have to do with Kanter). On the offensive end, Kaminsky is a skilled customer that can create matchup problems for most opposing big men. He'd also give the Thunder more shooting from an unconventional position, something they need if they want to keep playing Waiters or Roberson at the 2.
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