2009 Bowl Matchups and Projections: Can Anyone Stop The Florida Gators?

After previewing a 2009 week in college football each day for the last 15 days, we present final standings and bowl results. We did our best to slot teams based on their final regular season expected records and standings. With 68 teams not making a bowl and so many bowl ties to conferences like the SEC and ACC, we broadened bowl eligibility to include any team that finished .500 or above in expected or absolute record.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others. Since the favored team does not win every game, the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters, expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview bowl season. Please note the final season standings below. The ranking next to each team is its pre-season Power Ranking. Check back here tomorrow and throughout the season for our updated power rankings and actual weekly predictions.

BCS Championship Game: #1 Florida 31 vs. #2 Texas 28
Florida proved its dominance by blowing out its competition all year long, but ultimately gets a big test from #2 Texas in the BCS National Championship. Despite allowing 21 more points than their regular season average, the Gators' defense, primarily its secondary of Joe Haden, Janoris Jenkings, Ahmad Black and Major Wright, provides the difference in this game. Look for a late Florida interception of Colt McCoy to seal a close game. The scary thing for the rest of the country is that Florida's defense, which may be one of the best in the history of the game, only has two seniors. After returning all 11 starters from 2008, the Gators could conceivably return nine 2009 starters for 2010. Even if they lose a couple juniors to the draft, this team should again find itself atop our pre-season rankings next season as well. Florida wins 57.3% of the time and by an average score of 31-28. Bowl results are below. Interestingly, there are three teams favored in all of their games through the bowls: Florida, USC and TCU. If the winner of the Oklahoma/Texas game slips up in the regular season, USC would be next in line to face Florida. The Gators would be 62% favorites against USC in a game that has an average score of 33 - 25.

2009 Bowl Results

Poinsettia Bowl
#39 Nevada 35 - #69 Colorado State 21 (Nevada wins 85%)

New Orleans Bowl
#44 East Carolina 23 - #59 Arkansas State 13 (ECU wins 66%)

Papajohns.com Bowl
#31 Rutgers 23 - #54 Vanderbilt 10 (Rutgers wins 75%)

New Mexico Bowl
#24 BYU 33 - #66 Fresno State 14 (BYU wins 87%)

Las Vegas Bowl
#19 TCU 21 - #33 Oregon State 17 (TCU wins 60%)

Hawaii Bowl
#46 Tulsa 28 - #58 Louisiana Tech 24 (Tulsa wins 63%)

Motor City Bowl
#56 Western Michigan 20 - #64 Northwestern 17 (Western Michigan wins 53%)

Holiday Bowl
#22 Oregon 31 - #25 Kansas 27 (Oregon wins 55%)

Texas Bowl
#53 Navy 27 - #83 Middle Tennessee State 10 (Navy wins 82%)

Champs Sports Bowl
#18 Florida State 26 - #17 Illinois 24 (Florida State wins 51%)

Emerald Bowl
#50 Stanford 24 - #52 Maryland 23 (Stanford wins 51%)

Meineke Car Care Bowl
#40 Pitt 20 - #51 NC State 17 (Pitt wins 64%)

Liberty Bowl
#21 Houston 42 - #82 Ball State 17 (Houston wins 91%)

Alamo Bowl
#32 Nebraska 28 - #42 Wisconsin 27 (Nebraska wins 51%)

Independence Bowl
#28 Texas Tech 31 - #60 Arizona State 17 (Texas Tech wins 80%)

Armed Forces Bowl
#43 Air Force 35 - #70 UTEP 21 (Air Force wins 79%)

Sun Bowl
#35 Arizona 20 - #38 South Florida 21 (Arizona wins 51%)

Humanitarian Bowl
#20 Utah 24 - #23 Boise State 21 (Utah wins 52%)

Music City Bowl
#34 Tennessee 17 - #30 Clemson 13 (Tennessee wins 53%)

Chick-fil-a Bowl
#14 Georgia Tech 31 - #49 Arkansas 14 (Georgia Tech wins 84%)

Insight Bowl
#27 Baylor 21 - #45 Michigan State 19 (Baylor wins 53%)

Outback Bowl
#16 Iowa 23 - #15 Georgia 20 (Iowa wins 51%)

Cotton Bowl
#6 Oklahoma State 42 - #8 Ole Miss 35 (Oklahoma State wins 58%)

Gator Bowl
#29 North Carolina 24 - #37 Missouri 20 (North Carolina wins 60%)

Capitol One Bowl
#7 LSU 26 - #13 Penn State 21 (LSU wins 65%)

International Bowl
#48 Cincinnati 30 - #80 Ohio 17 (Cincinnati wins 79%)

GMAC Bowl
#41 Miami (FL) 24 - #61 Central Michigan 10 (Miami wins 76%)

St. Petersburg Bowl
#62 Troy 21 - #77 Marshall 17 (Troy wins 65%)

Eagle Bank Bowl
#36 Southern Miss 40 - #87 Akron 14 (Southern Miss wins 75%)

Rose Bowl
#4 USC 35 - #9 Ohio State 10 (USC wins 93%)

Sugar Bowl
#5 Alabama 28 - #26 Notre Dame 7 (Alabama wins 92%)

Fiesta Bowl
#3 Oklahoma 34 - #10 Cal 17 (Oklahoma wins 91%)

Orange Bowl
#12 Virginia Tech 19 - #11 West Virginia 18 (Virginia Tech wins 51%)

BCS Championship
#1 Florida 31 - #2 Texas 28 (Florida wins 57%)

Final BCS Standings

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	13 - 1	11 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Georgia Tech	11 - 2	10 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	12 - 2	10 - 4
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	10 - 3	9 - 4
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	8 - 5	8 - 5
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	7 - 6	8 - 5
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina State	7 - 6	6 - 7
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	6 - 7	6 - 7
Atlantic Coast	Wake Forest	3 - 9	5 - 7
Atlantic Coast	Duke	4 - 8	4 - 8
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	3 - 9	4 - 8
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	2 - 10	3 - 9
Big 12	Oklahoma	12 - 1	12 - 1
Big 12	Texas	13 - 1	12 - 2
Big 12	Oklahoma State	11 - 2	11 - 2
Big 12	Nebraska	7 - 6	9 - 4
Big 12	Baylor	10 - 3	8 - 5
Big 12	Texas Tech	8 - 5	8 - 5
Big 12	Kansas	9 - 5	8 - 6
Big 12	Missouri	6 - 7	7 - 6
Big 12	Colorado	5 - 7	4 - 8
Big 12	Kansas State	4 - 8	4 - 8
Big 12	Iowa State	2 - 10	3 - 9
Big 12	Texas A&M	1 - 11	3 - 9
Big East	West Virginia	12 - 1	11 - 2
Big East	Rutgers	12 - 1	10 - 3
Big East	Pittsburgh	10 - 3	9 - 4
Big East	South Florida	8 - 5	8 - 5
Big East	Cincinnati	7 - 6	8 - 5
Big East	Connecticut	4 - 8	5 - 7
Big East	Louisville	3 - 9	4 - 8
Big East	Syracuse	1 - 11	2 - 10
Big Ten	Iowa	11 - 2	11 - 2
Big Ten	Ohio State	11 - 2	10 - 3
Big Ten	Penn State	11 - 2	10 - 3
Big Ten	Illinois	10 - 3	10 - 3
Big Ten	Wisconsin	10 - 3	9 - 4
Big Ten	Michigan State	7 - 6	7 - 6
Big Ten	Northwestern	6 - 7	6 - 7
Big Ten	Michigan	4 - 8	5 - 7
Big Ten	Minnesota	4 - 8	5 - 7
Big Ten	Purdue	3 - 9	3 - 9
Big Ten	Indiana	1 - 11	3 - 9
Conference USA	Houston	13 - 1	11 - 3
Conference USA	Southern Miss	11 - 3	11 - 3
Conference USA	East Carolina	9 - 4	9 - 4
Conference USA	Tulsa	8 - 5	8 - 5
Conference USA	UTEP	7 - 6	6 - 7
Conference USA	Marshall	6 - 7	5 - 8
Conference USA	Rice	5 - 7	5 - 7
Conference USA	UAB	5 - 7	5 - 7
Conference USA	Memphis	2 - 10	4 - 8
Conference USA	Southern Methodist	3 - 9	3 - 9
Conference USA	Tulane	1 - 11	3 - 9
Conference USA	UCF	2 - 10	3 - 9
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	11 - 2	9 - 4
Independents (FBS)	Navy	10 - 4	9 - 5
Independents (FBS)	Army	4 - 8	4 - 8
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	0 - 12	1 - 11
Mid-American	Western Michigan	13 - 1	11 - 3
Mid-American	Central Michigan	9 - 4	8 - 5
Mid-American	Ball State	8 - 5	7 - 6
Mid-American	Ohio	9 - 5	7 - 7
Mid-American	Bowling Green	8 - 4	6 - 6
Mid-American	Akron	7 - 6	6 - 7
Mid-American	Kent State	5 - 7	6 - 6
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	5 - 7	6 - 6
Mid-American	Temple	4 - 8	6 - 6
Mid-American	Buffalo	5 - 7	5 - 7
Mid-American	Toledo	4 - 8	5 - 7
Mid-American	Eastern Michigan	0 - 12	2 - 10
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	0 - 12	1 - 11
Mountain West	TCU	13 - 0	11 - 2
Mountain West	Utah	10 - 3	11 - 2
Mountain West	Brigham Young	10 - 3	10 - 3
Mountain West	Air Force	10 - 3	9 - 4
Mountain West	Colorado State	6 - 7	6 - 7
Mountain West	UNLV	6 - 6	5 - 7
Mountain West	San Diego State	3 - 9	4 - 8
Mountain West	New Mexico	3 - 9	3 - 9
Mountain West	Wyoming	3 - 9	3 - 9
Pacific-10	USC	13 - 0	12 - 1
Pacific-10	California	11 - 2	10 - 3
Pacific-10	Oregon	11 - 2	9 - 4
Pacific-10	Oregon State	9 - 4	8 - 5
Pacific-10	Arizona	7 - 6	7 - 6
Pacific-10	Stanford	7 - 6	7 - 6
Pacific-10	Arizona State	5 - 8	6 - 7
Pacific-10	UCLA	4 - 8	4 - 8
Pacific-10	Washington	2 - 10	3 - 9
Pacific-10	Washington State	0 - 12	1 - 11
Southeastern	Florida	14 - 0	13 - 1
Southeastern	Alabama	13 - 1	12 - 2
Southeastern	Mississippi	11 - 2	10 - 3
Southeastern	LSU	10 - 3	10 - 3
Southeastern	Tennessee	9 - 4	9 - 4
Southeastern	Georgia	8 - 5	8 - 5
Southeastern	Arkansas	7 - 6	6 - 7
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	6 - 7	5 - 8
Southeastern	Kentucky	3 - 9	4 - 8
Southeastern	South Carolina	3 - 9	4 - 8
Southeastern	Auburn	3 - 9	3 - 9
Southeastern	Mississippi State	2 - 10	3 - 9
Sun Belt	Arkansas State	10 - 3	8 - 5
Sun Belt	Troy	10 - 3	9 - 4
Sun Belt	Middle Tennessee	8 - 6	7 - 7
Sun Belt	Florida International	7 - 5	6 - 6
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Lafayette	6 - 6	6 - 6
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	4 - 8	5 - 7
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Monroe	3 - 9	4 - 8
Sun Belt	North Texas	1 - 12	3 - 10
Western Athletic	Boise State	12 - 2	11 - 3
Western Athletic	Nevada	11 - 2	10 - 3
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	8 - 5	8 - 5
Western Athletic	Fresno State	6 - 7	6 - 7
Western Athletic	Utah State	6 - 6	5 - 7
Western Athletic	Hawaii	4 - 9	5 - 8
Western Athletic	San Jose State	4 - 8	4 - 8
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	2 - 11	4 - 9
Western Athletic	Idaho	0 - 12	1 - 11

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!