Oregon Vs. Boise State: Onto the Turf of Smurf, Into the Mouth of Hell!

The moment we’ve all been waiting for is almost here. In less than a week ,college football season finally begins. For Oregon fans, it begins with a hell of a bang.

New head coach Chip Kelly will take the burden of high expectations and the fewest returning starters in the Pac-10 conference with him when the Ducks play at Boise State in prime time on Thursday night.

Oregon is still smarting from the embarrassment of losing to the Broncos at Autzen last year. What was widely considered a late, helmet to helmet hit knocked out quarterback Jeremiah Masoli early in the game and made the Ducks’ offense one dimensional.

Smelling blood, Boise State loaded the box and used their terrific defensive speed to contain any attempts to run outside. With Chris Harper nursing an injured shoulder, the Ducks' offense went nowhere fast.

After three quarters of total domination, the Broncos went into prevent mode. The substitution of Darron Thomas lit a fire in the Oregon passing game, and Boise State’s lead dwindled. But the Broncos held on for a historic win for the so called “mid-major” program.

Nobody can deny that Boise State is a program worthy of respect. But that doesn’t take away the sting Duck fans feel of losing to a non automatic qualifying conference team at home. Some have said that the Broncos won because of a dirty hit on Oregon’s quarterback.

There is no denying Masoli’s injury had a big effect, but make no mistake, the Broncos simply out-played the Ducks in every facet of the game for three quarters. When the decision was finally made to burn Thomas’ redshirt in the desperate hope of a comeback, it was already too late to salvage the game for the Ducks.

Masoli is healthy now, and he matured a lot last season. As long as his new receiver corps doesn’t underperform, Oregon should be able to force Boise State to respect their passing game. If that happens, the Ducks will be able to move the ball.

Whether they will be able to move it enough will depend on the rebuilt offensive line. Many of the new starters have significant game experience, but there is only one returning starter, and several players have been shuffled to new positions.

If the intense environment and quick Broncos defenders get to this unit and disrupt their cohesion, the result will be broken plays. In a game featuring two such dynamic offenses, Oregon can’t afford that.

As painful as it was for a hardcore Ducks fan like myself to witness it, Boise State’s offensive execution last year at Autzen was nothing short of phenomenal. The Broncos' coaches identified mismatches they could exploit, and then used max protect packages to neutralize Oregon’s potent pass rush.

Though the Broncos never got the ground game going, play action burned the Ducks time and again as Kellen Moore found his running backs and tight ends repeatedly for big plays.

Boise State also used motion and creative packages to good effect. After a fumble recovery in the third quarter led to a Jeremiah Johnson touchdown, the Ducks seemed to finally have a pulse. On the ensuing Boise State drive, a wide receiver was sent in motion and ended up in single coverage against middle linebacker Casey Mathews. The result was a Broncos touchdown.

On a critical 4th-and-1 in the second half, Moore pretended to fumble the ball as he dropped back. The Ducks' defense bit, and Moore found his tight end open for the conversion.

If the Ducks want payback for last year’s loss, Nick Allioti’s defense cannot make these mistakes again. The rebuilt defensive line and talented linebackers must find a way to shut down Boise State on the ground without being overly reliant on support from the secondary. Otherwise, play action will be the Ducks’ kryptonite once again.

Against a high powered, creative offense like the Broncos’, it is imperative that Oregon limit big plays. The “trick” plays Boise State runs not only get lots of yards but turn the momentum decidedly in their favor when they work. In an extremely hostile environment, the Ducks cannot let the Broncos have this working to their advantage.

Special teams had a big impact in last year’s game. Both teams missed field goals, and Boise State stopped a two point conversion attempt by Oregon. Morgan Flint does not have Matt Evenson’s range, but is more consistent with his accuracy.

The Ducks have a highly regarded freshman in Rob Beard (who will probably handle kickoff duties) to turn to if they have to attempt a long field goal. With dangerous return men on both sides, I’d call the special teams evenly matched.

Boise State’s biggest advantage is that this game is opening week on the blue turf. Oregon’s lineup has undergone significant shakeups from last season. With a new head coach and plenty of new starters in the lineup, it is natural for there to be questions of confidence in the back of the Ducks’ minds. They must remember the humiliation of last year’s game and play with emotion to cover these doubts and not let them affect their play on the field.

For the Broncos, this is the biggest game of the season. They get a well regarded Pac-10 opponent at home on national TV. If they are going to bust the BCS, they have to win, plain and simple. This is an opportunity for Boise State to solidify itself as a football program worthy of the respect given to automatic qualifying conference members. The players, and the fans, will be fired up.

The Ducks have what it takes to avenge last year’s loss and end the Broncos 'run to greatness before it gets started. But to do so, they must win the turnover battle and play with the same intensity that Boise State will bring to their home field.

To quote LaGarrette Blount when questioned about this game in Sport’s Illustrated’s College Football Preview issue:

“We owe that team a whuppin.’”

If the whole Oregon Ducks team plays like they owe the Broncos a whuppin, they can deliver it.

PREDICTION: Oregon Ducks 38, Boise State Broncos 35