Ranking the 49ers' 5 Best Draft Picks of 2015
The most talented player the San Francisco 49ers drafted this year probably was former Oregon defensive end Arik Armstead.
But he wasn’t their best draft pick.
He actually might have been one of their worst. The Niners took Armstead with the 17th pick in Round 1—one spot ahead of an extremely talented cornerback, Marcus Peters from Washington. The Kansas City Chiefs took Peters with the 18th pick. He has a great chance to become a shutdown cornerback.
Armstead might develop into a dominant run defender. Will he ever become an effective pass-rusher? Will he have a better career than Peters? If the answer to both questions is “no,” Armstead won’t live up to his draft slot. He will be known as a reach.
Compared to Armstead, the following players offer more value relative to where the 49ers picked them. These are the 49ers’ five best draft picks of 2015.
5. Jaquiski Tartt, Safety, Round 2
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In Round 2, the 49ers got one of the most athletic safeties in the draft—Jaquiski Tartt.
Tartt played at Samford, a small school, so you might not have heard of him before the Niners picked him. But he’s a fantastic athlete. Compare him to safety Deone Bucannon, the Arizona Cardinals’ first-round pick in 2014:
Tartt: 6’1”, 221 pounds, 4.47-second 40-yard dash, 4.29-second short shuttle, 7.03-second three-cone drill, 33-inch vertical jump and 123-inch broad jump.
Bucannon: 6’1”, 211 pounds, 4.49-second 40-yard dash, 4.26-second short shuttle, 6.96-second three-cone drill, 36 ½-inch vertical jump and 125-inch broad jump.
Tartt might be even more athletic than Bucannon.
But the Niners didn’t need another safety. They drafted one in the first round last year—Jimmie Ward. And both of Niners' starting safeties—Eric Reid and Antoine Bethea—are under contract through 2016.
Tartt was a luxury pick. To get him, the Niners passed on better prospects at positions of need, such as cornerback Ronald Darby and tight end Maxx Williams.
4. Eli Harold, Outside Linebacker, Round 3
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Eli Harold is an explosive athlete and a decent pass-rusher. He’s small—“only” 6'3", 247 pounds. The 49ers’ outside linebackers tend to weigh between 260 and 270 pounds.
If Harold gets bigger, he has the potential to develop into an effective strong-side outside linebacker for the 49ers—the position Ahmad Brooks played the past four seasons.
But the Niners already have Brooks’ long-term replacement—last year’s fifth-round pick, Aaron Lynch. He is only 22, and he is one of the best young pass-rushers in the NFL. Harold cannot compete with Lynch at this time.
Lynch recorded six sacks in just 524 snaps last season, per Pro Football Focus. Next season he deserves to play twice as much.
The Niners' other outside linebacker is Aldon Smith. He will be a free agent in 2016. If the 49ers re-sign him, he and Lynch will be the starters for the next few years, and Harold hardly will contribute to the defense. He mostly will play special teams. He will be another luxury pick.
Instead of taking Harold, the Niners could have drafted cornerback Alex Carter or wide receiver Sammie Coates—young, talented players at positions of need.
3. Blake Bell, Tight End, Round 4
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Blake Bell has things in common with Seattle Seahawks tight end Jimmy Graham.
Both played tight end for just one season in college, and Bell caught 16 passes. Graham caught 17.
Both were 23 years old when they got drafted.
And both are agile. Bell ran a 6.85-second three-cone drill, and Graham ran a 6.90, per NFL Draft Scout.
Is Bell the next Graham?
We should know fairly soon. Graham seemed like a long-term project when he came into the league. But his first season he started five games, and his second season he caught 99 passes. He pretty much was ready to go.
If Bell has a similar career trajectory, obviously he will be the 49ers’ best pick from this draft.
But if he flops, remember the 49ers drafted him one spot ahead of inside linebacker Ramik Wilson, the SEC’s leading tackler in 2013. The Niners desperately need an inside linebacker, and they didn’t draft any. Wilson would have contributed right away.
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2. DeAndre Smelter, Wide Receiver, Round 4
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The past four seasons, the 49ers had one of the worst wide receivers coaches in the NFL—John Morton. He never developed a young receiver.
Now the Niners have a new wide receivers coach—Adam Henry. And he is one of the best when it comes to molding raw talent at wide receiver. At LSU, he developed Odell Beckham Jr., the Offensive Rookie of the Year last season.
Now Henry has a new project—DeAndre Smelter from Georgia Tech.
Smelter was the most talented wide receiver available when the Niners drafted him toward the end of Round 4. He’s very big (6’2”, 226 lbs), and he’s explosive (18.9 yards per catch in college).
But he played football only for two years at Georgia Tech. His first two years he played baseball. He still needs to learn the craft of playing receiver.
On top of that, he tore his ACL in December. So he likely won’t contribute much his rookie season.
And that’s OK. The Niners have Anquan Boldin for one more season. They need Smelter to contribute in 2016 if Boldin retires or signs with another team. Henry should be able to bring Smelter up to speed by then.
The Georgia Tech product landed in the perfect spot.
1. Mike Davis, Running Back, Round 4
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Mike Davis is the only player the 49ers picked who fills an immediate need.
The 49ers want a committee of running backs to replace Frank Gore. Before the draft, only one back in the committee weighed more than 205 pounds, and that was Carlos Hyde.
The Niners didn’t have a three-down running back who could keep Hyde fresh for the fourth quarter. Now they do.
Mike Davis was one of the few three-down backs in this year’s draft, and the 49ers got him in Round 4.
He just turned 22 in February. When he was 20, he averaged 5.9 yards per carry in the SEC—a tremendous accomplishment. When he was 21, his production declined as he played through injuries and conditioning issues. He averaged only 4.9 yards per carry.
Now he seems healthy and in shape again. He ran a 4.52-second 40-yard dash at his pro day—he couldn't run that fast if he wasn't in shape.
Hyde and Davis will make a solid tandem.
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