NBA Playoffs 2015: Top Storylines Heading into Round 2

Round 2 of the 2015 NBA Playoffs tips off Sunday with the Washington Wizards at the Atlanta Hawks followed by the Memphis Grizzlies at the Golden State Warriors.

Though this is the round when the true title contenders will separate themselves from the pretenders, some major storylines hanging over from Round 1 may actually determine the final eight teams’ Finals dreams. 

Whether it’s Kevin Love’s injury putting extra weight on LeBron James’ shoulders, Mike Conley’s broken face potentially ending Memphis’ hopes, or the Hawks’ fatigue catching up to them against Washington, the key to success across the board will be adaptability.

Any team with championship aspirations knew coming into the playoffs that it would have to adapt at some point, but few would have expected they’d need to fundamentally alter their game plans as early as Round 2.

On the eve of the conference semifinals, let’s take a look at the biggest storylines impacting games from Sunday and beyond.

Kevin Love is Gone, But the Cavs Will Go On

Cleveland Cavaliers power forward Kevin Love will be out for four to six months after the Boston Celtics’ Kelly Olynyk dislocated Love's shoulder (illustrated below) in Game 4 of the series on Sunday, per ESPN.

That’s old news. What it means for Monday’s matchup with the Chicago Bulls, however, is still up for debate. Josh Planos of The Washington Post argued Cleveland’s Love loss could spell doom for the Cavs, as he points out with these stats: 

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The Cavaliers had a net rating of plus-6.6 with Love on the court; without him, it plummeted to minus-1.5, and the team had a lower assist percentage, rebound percentage, effective field goal percentage, offensive rating and assist-to-turnover ratio, plus a higher (worse) defensive rating.

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If we look back at the Bulls and Cavs regular-season meetings, as CBS Sports’ James Herbert did, we see Love-less Cleveland losing 113-98 in Chicago. If we look closer, we see the home team trumped LeBron and Co. on the back of stellar performances from Derrick Rose (30 points) and Tony Snell (22 points).

The playoffs, though, are a different story. Chicago struggled more than most would have expected against the less sizable Milwaukee Bucks, letting them back in for Games 4 and 5. Meanwhile, the Cavs comfortably put away the Celtics in four.

Cleveland may be without Love and (for two games) J.R. Smith, but the Cavs can overcome the inconsistent Bulls if they fire on all their remaining cylinders (LeBron, Kyrie Irving, Iman Shumpert, Timofey Mozgov/ Tristan Thompson and Matthew Dellavedova specifically).

The Bulls will have a size advantage, but as Grantland’s Zach Lowe argues, it may not be decisive when Cleveland’s versatility is taken into account: “The Mozgov-Thompson combo could slaughter the [Nikola] Mirotic-[Pau] Gasol all-offense unit on the glass, compensating for whatever offensive firepower that group brings for Chicago. And Thompson has the wheels to chase Mirotic around the perimeter on defense.”

Prediction: LeBron will rise, Irving will play Robin to his Batman, J.R. Smith will redeem himself and Cleveland will win in seven.

Memphis’ Glimmer of Hope is Extinguished with Conley Injury (No Matter What Grizzlies Believe)

Mike Conley was a big factor for the Memphis Grizzlies’ already slim hopes against the juggernaut Golden State Warriors, but his status for the series is uncertain.

After taking a C.J. McCollum elbow to the face in Game 3 against the Portland Trail Blazers, the point guard left the court and hasn’t returned since (pictured in the tweet below): 

According to ESPN’s Marc Stein, however, there’s belief he could return at some point against the Warriors. According to Stein’s sources, the Grizzlies “won't completely rule Conley out of Game 1 until a pregame check before Sunday's 3:30 p.m. ET tipoff, but coach Dave Joerger announced Saturday after the team’s arrival in Oakland that Conley was ‘doubtful’ for the opener.”

Sources also informed Stein that Memphis has a facemask prepared in the event the player is cleared.

Zach Lowe raised the question of whether “having a broken face, and the knowledge that one’s face can be broken, might cast a pall of caution over Conley’s jitterbug style,” suggesting the return of their 16-points-per-game star might not be a return to normal.

Considering Stephen Curry et al.’s emphatic sweep of the New Orleans Pelicans in Round 1, it would be difficult to see the Grizzlies having a fighting chance—with or without Conley. That’s not so much a knock against Memphis as it is a vote of supreme confidence in a team with the ability to make plays like this, from the official Golden State Twitter: 

The question here is: Do the Grizzlies try to prolong the series by playing less-than-full-strength Conley at some point, or do they accept the inevitable and let their point guard recover for next season?

Prediction: Memphis will fail to adjust without Conley early on and will resort to playing him in Game 3 or 4. Golden State, though, will sweep the series regardless.

Atlanta vs. Washington: Sweat Over Swagger?

The Hawks may be the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, but a six-game series against the Brooklyn Nets (38-44 in the regular season) has skeptics questioning Atlanta’s credentials.

The Washington Wizards, on the other hand, ousted their opponents in just four games and (as SportsCenter noted) made franchise history while doing it:

Now that these two teams are meeting in Round 2, the question is simple: Does the advantage go to the team with more competitive reps in Round 1, or the one riding a wave of franchise-history momentum? Is it better to advance with sweat or swagger?

Atlanta made it through the regular season without any superstars on its roster, so it’s not like a worrying disappearance of a LeBron or Steph Curry in the first round caused their wobble against the Nets.

The closest the Hawks came to that scenario was the poor marksmanship of Kyle Korver in the early games. However, the shooting guard recovered his touch in Game 6 and went 12-of-20, suggesting he should be back to his near-50 percent shooting from the regular season.

Meanwhile, Washington’s star John Wall seems more than happy to keep riding the enthusiasm train as he has from Game 1 (evidenced by his official Twitter below):

You could say Atlanta’s true quality over the course of the regular season should not be overshadowed by its two-game slide against Brooklyn. But, like Wall above, you could also say records go out the window at tournament time, when momentum is king.

In short, Washington adjusted to the playoffs quickly, while Atlanta still seems to be working out a few kinks.

Prediction: The Wizards’ swagger will roll over the Hawks in six.

Recent History Says Clippers vs. Rockets Will Go to the Wire 

The Houston Rockets concluded their series against the Dallas Mavericks in five games then proceeded to take most of the week off, only returning to training on Friday. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Clippers spent the week going toe-to-toe with the San Antonio Spurs in the most intense matchup of Round 1.

Chris Paul rose to the occasion and dropped the final dagger (highlighted below) late Saturday night to seal his team’s advancement from a spectacular seven-game series. If the Rockets-Clippers matchup is anything like L.A.’s last series—and it very well could be—then we’ll be in for something truly special.

This season, Houston averaged 97.5 points on 39.1 percent shooting and 27.6 percent three-point shooting against the Clippers, per Jonathan Feigan of the Houston Chronicle. The Rockets’ M.V.P. candidate James Harden, specifically, struggled against the team from L.A., hitting only 35.8 percent from the field and 24 percent from downtown. 

Additionally, with Pat Beverley out, Feigan suggests Paul “would seem to be the sort of point guard the Rockets would want to avoid.” Unfortunately for Houston, the Clippers’ man of the moment just put up a team-best 27 points against the Spurs. 

However, all is certainly not lost for the Rockets. Houston actually won its last two regular-season games against the Clippers once it shifted Trevor Ariza on Paul and Harden to Matt Barnes. Add that tactical adjustment to a comfortably acclimating five-game playoff victory in the first round, and the Rockets’ Round 2 bout starts to look about even.

Prediction: It’s a close one to call, but Houston will edge the Clippers in seven.