Heisman Handicapper: Ranking the Top 20 Candidates Post-Spring Games
We're only a few days removed from the Kentucky Derby, the most famous horse race in the world and one that has far more anticipation than you'd expect for something dubbed the "fastest two minutes in sports."
But that event has got nothing on the buildup that comes with the competition for college football's most prestigious award, the Heisman Trophy, a race that doesn't officially begin until September when the 2015 season starts but which has been unofficially underway since before last season ended.
Not long after Marcus Mariota claimed the 2014 Heisman, the discussion began over who would take this season's trophy. Early favorites and contenders were identified, then updated after bowl games and at various other times during the offseason.
Now that spring practice is over and there are no other relevant activities between now and the beginning of preseason camp, it's time for an in-depth look at who this year's top Heisman candidates are. We've ranked them in order of their odds to win, factoring in expected performance as well as historical trends related to Heisman winners and voting.
20. Brandon Doughty, QB, Western Kentucky
1 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 6'3", 216 lbs
2014 stats: 4,830 passing yards, 67.9% comp., 49 TD, 10 INT
How he can win
Anyone who has a chance at assaulting the national record books deserves consideration for the Heisman, though Brandon Doughty might have to obliterate single-season passing records in order to have a real chance.
Last year, Doughty threw for the 15th-most yards in FBS history, and his 49 touchdown passes were sixth-best ever. Western Kentucky didn't qualify for the Conference USA title game, but if the Hilltoppers can get a 14th game on the schedule this year (and Doughty avoids any poor-yardage outings, of which he had two last year) he has a good chance to top B.J. Symons' 5,833 yards or Colt Brennan's 58 touchdown passes.
What can get in the way
Chris Huston, who runs Heisman Pundit, came up with a list of the 10 "Heismandments" that best describe what it takes to have a chance to win the award. Doughty meets many of the criteria, but the one he has no control over is No. 3:
"The winner must produce good numbers in high-profile games on TV," Hutson wrote.
Most C-USA games end up on CBS Sports Network, if they're televised at all, and while Western Kentucky plays three power-conference teams (Vanderbilt, Indiana and LSU), none of those games are likely to get prime viewing slots.
Odds: 200-1
19. Adoree' Jackson, WR/CB/KR, USC
2 of 20
Year: Sophomore
Height, weight: 5'11", 185 lbs
2014 stats: 10 rec., 138 yards, 3 TD; 29.7 kickoff YPR, 2 TD; 49 tackles, 4 TFL, 1 forced fumble
How he can win
Ever since Charles Woodson won the Heisman in 1997, there's been an annual wonder of whether we'd ever see another winner whose primary position wasn't on offense. Adoree' Jackson might provide the best bet to turn the award on its head in a long time, especially if the talk that he'll be used a lot more as a wide receiver this season turns out to be true.
Jackson's primary position will likely remain cornerback, but USC has enough depth in the secondary to let him cut back on his defensive snaps in order to be more effective on offense. Add in his continued work as a kick returner, and he has all the makings of a multipurpose player who can make it impossible to stick to the status quo and just vote for the best quarterbacks and running backs.
What can get in the way
Jackson can't just be someone who plays on all three units for USC, he has to be their best player in at least two areas. Juju Smith is expected to be the Trojans' No. 1 receiver, while the arrival of top-flight cornerback prospect Iman Marshall could steal some of Jackson's defensive thunder.
Odds: 150-1
18. Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
3 of 20
Year: True freshman
Height, weight: 6'4", 205 lbs
2014 stats: None
How he can win
Josh Rosen was the top pro-style passing prospect in the 2014 recruiting class, an early enrollee who most likely will end up being UCLA's starter from the moment his college career begins. The Bruins are projected to be one of the better teams in the Pac-12 and could be in the playoff hunt, and they play in one of the biggest markets in the country.
If UCLA makes the College Football Playoff, it will be because of Rosen and not in spite of him, and that success will translate into what would be an unprecedented Heisman bid for a true freshman.
What can get in the way
There's a heavy emphasis on the word "true" when describing Rosen, since he would become the first true freshman to get serious Heisman consideration since running back Marshall Faulk finished ninth in 1991 for San Diego State.
Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston ended the freshman drought for winners, but they both had a redshirt year to get acclimated to college before getting thrown into the fire. Having a good year as a true freshman isn't unusual, but having it be to the level of vying for the Heisman is.
Odds: 120-1
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17. Devontae Booker, RB, Utah
4 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 5'11", 212 lbs
2014 stats: 1,512 rushing yards, 5.2 YPC, 10 TD; 42 rec., 311 yards, 2 TD
How he can win
No one outside of Utah had heard of Devontae Booker before last season, and a lot of people still don't know who he is after the junior college transfer finished second in the Pac-12 in rushing and spearheaded the Utes' best season since joining the Pac-12. Utah could be better this year, and assuming Booker is a key to that improvement, he'll warrant some Heisman consideration.
Utah's Heisman history is limited, but somewhat notable. In leading the Utes to a perfect record and the Fiesta Bowl in 2004, quarterback Alex Smith placed fourth in the voting.
What can get in the way
Booker will probably have to go for 2,000-plus yards to be a legitimate Heisman contender, and Utah can't just be better than in 2014—it has to be much better. Like, win the Pac-12 South and be in the running for the playoffs better.
The Utes had an inconsistent offense last year, and while their aggressive defensive philosophy remains, they will be without Nate Orchard, who had more than one-third of the team's FBS-leading 55 sacks and has moved on to the NFL. To expect a jump from nine wins to 11 or more might be too much to ask.
Odds: 100-1
16. Seth Russell, QB, Baylor
5 of 20
Year: Junior
Height, weight: 6'3", 220 lbs
2014 stats: 804 passing yards, 56.5% comp., 8 TD, 1 INT; 185 rushing yards, 3 TD
How he can win
Baylor's offense is built for success from the quarterback position, which is why there was no drop-off when Nick Florence succeeded Heisman winner Robert Griffin III. Bryce Petty then took it up another notch the past two years with Big 12 titles and major bowl appearances. What's to say Seth Russell can't do the same?
Russell won't have any shortage of weapons to work with, and after spending his time with the Bears to this point learning from Petty, he's ready to step in and put up his own big numbers. He got an early audition last September when he subbed for Petty and threw for 438 yards and five touchdowns.
Yes, it was against FCS Northwestern State, but it was darn good for a player's first career start.
What can get in the way
Russell hasn't won the starting job yet, though he appears to be the leader over freshman Jarrett Stidham heading into the fall. Stidham is a top-tier prospect, one of the best Baylor has ever recruited, and because of that Baylor coach Art Briles might want to get him significant playing time this season, which could reduce Russell's numbers.
There's also the stigma of being called a "system quarterback," which probably contributed to Petty finishing seventh and 10th, respectively, in the last two Heisman races.
Odds: 80-1
15. Scooby Wright III, LB, Arizona
6 of 20
Year: Junior
Height, weight: 6'1", 246 lbs
2014 stats: 163 tackles, 29 TFL, 14 sacks, 6 forced fumbles
How he can win
As the most decorated defensive player in the country last year, winning a trio of national awards (Bednarik, Lombardi and Nagurski) while ranking first in tackles, tackles for loss and forced fumbles, Scooby Wright III enters this season with plenty of name recognition after beginning 2014 as a relative unknown outside of the Pac-12.
Arizona won the Pac-12 South Division last year and will be among the favorites to do so again this year. If the Wildcats are able to improve significantly on their No. 105 national ranking in total defense, it will likely be Wright who gets much of that credit, which will translate into a serious push for the Heisman.
What can get in the way
Defensive players are at a distinct disadvantage when it comes to the Heisman, especially if they don't also play offense or return kicks or punts. To have a real shot, they must either be extremely dominant or have a compelling story—and preferably both.
Wright has the first part down, but on the narrative front his rise from being a two-star recruit with only one FBS offer isn't as heart-wrenching as something like the (ultimately fake) story of a dead girlfriend, which propelled Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o to a runner-up finish in 2012.
Odds: 75-1
14. James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh
7 of 20
Year: Junior
Height, weight: 6'2", 250 lbs
2014 stats: 1,765 rushing yards, 5.92 YPC, 26 TD
How he can win
James Conner set a school record for rushing yards in a season last year at Pittsburgh. Why is that worthy of making him a Heisman winner? The record was previously held by 1976 Heisman winner Tony Dorsett.
While he might not end up being as great a professional as Dorsett was, there's nothing to say Conner can't help break the Heisman quarterback stranglehold if he can put up even bigger numbers this year. New coach Pat Narduzzi has a defensive background, but he also knows how important a strong run game is and will likely turn to Conner quite often this season.
What can get in the way
Conner isn't the only offensive star on the Panthers, as junior wide receiver Tyler Boyd is a potential first-round pick and figures to be a top contender for the Biletnikoff Award, given to the country's top wideout.
They won't be in direct competition with each other for touches, but Conner is at risk of missing out on chances to get carries in key situations if throwing to Boyd proves to be a better option.
Odds: 65-1
13. Jeremy Johnson, QB, Auburn
8 of 20
Year: Junior
Height, weight: 6'5", 240 lbs
2014 stats: 436 passing yards, 75.7% comp., 3 TD
How he can win
Auburn's best teams this decade have been led by dynamic quarterbacks. First was Cam Newton en route to the 2010 title, and then the Tigers had Nick Marshall the past two years, which included a national championship appearance after the 2013 season. Jeremy Johnson has been compared to both—he's somewhat of a hybrid of the two—and if he's also able to match their success, he'll be in the Heisman race.
Marshall was great the past two years, but he wasn't much of a passer. Johnson is known more for his arm than his legs, but he does seem capable of being able to ground out key yards when needed and will benefit from an Auburn offense that head coach Gus Malzahn has turned into a juggernaut but which can be even better with a better air element.
"Johnson allows Malzahn to replicate the same type of offensive scheme that won Newton the Heisman Trophy and Auburn the national title in 2010 more so than any other quarterback Malzahn has had since then," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote.
What can get in the way
At this point, though, much of this is just speculation because Johnson's experience is limited. He made a spot start for an injured Marshall in 2013 and started the first half of Auburn's 2014 opener when Marshall was suspended, and while those performances were great, they aren't indicative of Johnson's potential to be the guy.
Odds: 50-1
12. Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
9 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 6'4", 220 lbs
2014 stats: 3,214 passing yards, 58.1% comp., 24 TD, 8 INT
How he can win
Michigan State won't be the favorite to even win its own division, as the Spartans have the misfortune of being on the same side of the Big Ten as defending national champion Ohio State and its nearly intact lineup from last season. But if MSU were to upset the Buckeyes, win the conference and make the playoffs, and Connor Cook were to play like he did the past two years, he'll be able to ride that momentum up the Heisman charts.
Cook is entering his third year as a starter, much like Marcus Mariota last year and and Robert Griffin III in 2011. Both of those winners made a huge leap in performance that final season—not to mention led their teams to unprecedented heights—and a similar path is what Cook would need to follow.
What can get in the way
Without a reliable running back like Jeremy Langford to hand off to or an experienced receiver like Tony Lippett to throw to, Cook will be asked to do a lot more on his own in 2015. He's been a good quarterback the past two years and is among the top quarterback prospects for the 2016 draft, but does that mean he can take the next step and become the top player in the country, let alone the best college passer?
Odds: 40-1
11. Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma
10 of 20
Year: Sophomore
Height, weight: 5'11", 237 lbs
2014 stats: 1,713 rushing yards, 6.51 YPC, 21 TD; 15 rec., 108 yards
How he can win
Samaje Perine was just one of a group of running backs expected to contribute for Oklahoma last season—the first time since 2011 the Sooners weren't going to have a featured back. But Perine blew away the field with some early standout performances, then blew away the FBS single-game rushing record with 427 yards against Kansas.
Perine had 925 yards and 10 touchdowns in Oklahoma's final four games, but two of those were losses that put a sour end to a disappointing 8-5 season. As great as Perine looked, it wasn't as big a story as how poorly the Sooners played.
Hopes are again high in Norman, but for once that optimism is centered more around a running back than a quarterback. That hasn't happened since Adrian Peterson finished second in Heisman voting in 2004, before Oklahoma transitioned to a quarterback-led program.
What can get in the way
Among the many changes Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops made in reaction to last year's struggles was the hiring of a new offensive coordinator, Lincoln Riley, who is instituting an Air Raid passing attack. Though Stoops and Riley claim this change will actually help Perine's production, that remains to be seen.
Most Air Raid teams don't tend to have a running back of Perine's ilk to hand off to, and while Riley had 1,000-yard rushers in two of the previous three years at East Carolina, it might be hard for Perine to remain a legitimate Heisman contender if he's being outshone by his own teammates because of the passing game.
Odds: 35-1
10. Cody Kessler, QB, USC
11 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 6'1", 215 lbs
2014 stats: 3,826 passing yards, 69.7% comp., 39 TD, 5 INT
How he can win
Since the Heisman Trophy began its quarterback run—that position has been the winner in 14 of the past 15 years—a USC quarterback has been in contention for the award about one-third of the time. That includes 2002 winner Carson Palmer and 2004 winner Matt Leinart, while Matt Barkley took sixth in 2011.
Cody Kessler hasn't been as well regarded as his predecessors, but after two very strong seasons and an upcoming senior campaign where he'll be at the helm of a potent offense, that could change.
Kessler's yardage last season was 116 short of Palmer's school-record tally when he won in 2002, and his 39 touchdowns tied Barkley's mark from 2011 (and were only three short of what Marcus Mariota threw for in winning last season's Heisman). If he can surpass both of those figures and USC stays in the playoff hunt, another USC quarterback will get invited to New York.
What can get in the way
Despite being projected by many as the Pac-12's best bet to make the playoffs, USC has to show it can make the most of its talent and consistently win. This year's team figures to be as good as the 2014 version, and that one lost four games.
Robert Griffin's 2011 Baylor team lost five games, but that's the exception to the rule that nearly every Heisman winner comes from one of the top (i.e. as close to unbeaten as possible) teams in the country.
Odds: 30-1
9. J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State
12 of 20
Year: Sophomore
Height, weight: 6'2", 225 lbs
2014 stats: 2,834 passing yards, 64.6% comp., 34 TD, 10 INT; 938 rushing yards, 11 TD
How he can win
J.T. Barrett struggled early in his first season and missed the fourth quarter of Ohio State's regular-season finale and the Big Ten championship game because of a broken ankle. Despite those negatives, Barrett still finished fifth in the Heisman race thanks to his school-record totals for total offense and passing touchdowns.
Imagine how Barrett would have fared if he'd had a full season of strong performances and no injuries? That's what would be in the cards this year if he emerges from the Buckeyes' quarterback competition to win back the job he was handed before training camp ended last August.
The quarterback of the defending national champion is almost guaranteed to be a Heisman contender, unless he's a first-time starter, a game manager or his team wins in spite of his play.
What can get in the way
Before even discussing the decent chance that he won't even start this season, Barrett also has to deal with trying to return his pre-injury performance level. Even the most successful surgeries don't guarantee a person's body will be able to operate as well as it did pre-injury.
Odds: 25-1
8. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
13 of 20
Year: Sophomore
Height, weight: 6'2", 205 lbs
2014 stats: 1,466 passing yards, 67.9% comp., 14 TD, 2 INT; 200 rushing yards, 5 TD
How he can win
The best quarterback in Clemson history, Tajh Boyd, was key in the school landing Deshaun Watson. Boyd couldn't crack the top 10 in Heisman voting despite leading the Tigers to their best three-year run in school history, and now that Watson has kept the streak going, he could end up reaching heights Boyd never could.
When Watson was healthy last season, Clemson's offense was infinitely better. Nearly everyone from that group is back this year, and assuming he can stay on the field, Watson should be able to put up some monster numbers to make the Tigers a legitimate contender to win the ACC, and maybe more.
What can get in the way
It all depends on whether Watson can avoid further injury. He missed time on three separate occasions as a freshman, first because of a broken hand and then due to two knee issues. The last, a torn ACL, required surgery in December and has kept him out of action since.
Watson's recovery has gone well, and he should be at full strength when preseason camp begins, but that's not an assurance he won't get hurt again. And if he adjusts his style of play to minimize risk of injury, that could translate into less production and a smaller chance for Heisman consideration.
Odds: 20-1
7. Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
14 of 20
Year: Sophomore
Height, weight: 6'1", 230 lbs
2014 stats: 1,034 rushing yards, 5.53 YPC, 10 TD; 7 rec., 127 yards
How he can win
Leonard Fournette expected to be a Heisman contender last year as a true freshman, and he even tried to get the ball rolling on that campaign with an ill-timed pose following his first career touchdown run. He ended up having an exceptional year, especially down the stretch, but not one worthy of national awards.
Yet now there are no more limitations related to experience or maturity, and Fournette figures to be right in the mix in 2015, especially as long as LSU remains uncertain about its quarterback play.
"I'm not really focusing on that right now," Fournette told Ross Dellenger of The Advocate when asked about the Heisman. "Focusing on getting better with the team, winning a championship."
Fournette could see a lot of work this season. The more he runs, and does so effectively, the better chance he'll have of being the Tigers' first Heisman winner.
What can get in the way
That same quarterback issue could hurt Fournette as much as help him, as opponents might be inclined to stack the box knowing that the passing game won't be much to worry about. If he sees his production impacted in this way, he'll struggle to stay in the Heisman race.
The same goes for if he wears down due to overuse. Fournette was also handling kickoff returns late last year, bringing one back for a touchdown in the Music City Bowl. Despite being a physical freak, he could tire out like a normal human.
Odds: 18-1
6. Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama
15 of 20
Year: Junior
Height, weight: 6'3", 242 lbs
2014 stats: 990 rushing yards, 5.76 YPC, 11 TD; 5 rec., 133 yards, 2 TD
How he can win
Alabama was probably the most storied program in the country not to have a Heisman winner until Mark Ingram took home the trophy in 2009. That was the last running back to win the award, and since then the closest a rusher has come to winning was Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon last year when he was runner-up (but had less than half the votes of Marcus Mariota).
The Crimson Tide's best player tends to always be in the Heisman conversation, however, as receiver Amari Cooper finished third last year, quarterback A.J. McCarron was second in 2013 and running back Trent Richardson took third in 2011. Henry figures to be that guy this fall, as Alabama is breaking in a new quarterback and the receiving corps is looking to be a committee instead of a one-man show like with Cooper.
Henry also figures to have a good chance to be an every-down back, unlike last year when he split carries with T.J. Yeldon, which is also how it was for the Tide backfield in 2012 and 2013.
What can get in the way
Alabama's running back depth used to be considered a source of great strength, but injuries, suspensions, dismissals and transfers have thinned the herd significantly. While this could help Henry in that he might not have to share carries, it could also mean he might get exposed as someone who cannot handle a full load.
If Henry were to show any wear early in the season, thus prompting offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin to work more ball-carriers into the rotation, Henry will drop out of the Heisman race. The last time a running back won the Heisman and ran for fewer than 1,500 yards was 1975, when Archie Griffin won his second straight award with 1,357 yards in 11 games.
Odds: 15-1
5. Cardale Jones, QB, Ohio State
16 of 20
Year: Junior
Height, weight: 6'5", 250 lbs
2014 stats: 860 passing yards, 60.9% comp., 7 TD, 2 INT; 296 rushing yards, 1 TD
How he can win
Cardale Jones' three-game stint as Ohio State's quarterback/savior last winter propelled his team to the national championship, and the former third-stringer nearly parlayed that small stretch into a jump to the pros. He thought better of that move, hoping to continue to develop in college for at least another year, and he will be doing so under the added scrutiny of being a Heisman candidate.
Jones' play last year was completely unexpected, but because of how he fared, his expectations will be much higher. This seems unfair, but it's the way sports operate.
If Jones ends up being the winner of the Buckeyes' three-man battle for the starting quarterback job, his bulldozer style of running and rocket-launcher arm will make for a player so unique it just screams Heisman.
What can get in the way
The last paragraph above says it all with the first word: if. Jones might be the favorite to win the starting job right now, thanks to both J.T. Barrett and Braxton Miller still rehabbing significant injuries, but that's no guarantee he'll come out on top.
Non-starters and platooning players don't win Heismans.
Odds: 10-1
4. Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia
17 of 20
Year: Sophomore
Height, weight: 5'10", 220 lbs
2014 stats: 1,547 rushing yards, 7.06 YPG, 14 TD; 18 rec., 213 yards, 2 TD
How he can win
Nick Chubb began last season as the future of Georgia football, a promising freshman who would eventually carry the torch Todd Gurley was carrying toward a potential Heisman win. Then Gurley was suspended and eventually lost for the season due to injury. The future became "now" for Chubb.
Eight starts later, and Chubb had performed so well you can almost hear Bulldogs fans say "Gurley who?"
Chubb has run for at least 113 yards in every start, topping out at a school bowl-record 266 yards last December. He ended the year tied for the fourth-most yards in school history, with only Herschel Walker (Georgia's last Heisman winner, in 1982) gaining more in a season.
Georgia will have an inexperienced quarterback this season, and Chubb has already shown he can be a workhorse, having run at least 25 times in four games. If the Bulldogs lean on him this season, his 2015 numbers will make last year's output look paltry.
What can get in the way
Chubb is as much of a physical specimen as Gurley, if not more so, but could he be susceptible to the same injury issues that kept Gurley from meeting his full potential in college? The wear of too many carries could slow him down at some point, and if he were to miss any time, it would add to the disadvantage running backs have trying to win an award that's become a de facto quarterback trophy.
Add in the fact Georgia's new offensive coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer, has more of a reputation for quarterback play than running the ball, and Chubb could be a victim of his team's system.
Odds: 9-1
3. Trevone Boykin, QB, TCU
18 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 6'2", 205 lbs
2014 stats: 3,901 passing yards, 61.2% comp., 33 TD, 10; 707 rushing yards, 8 TD
How he can win
Trevone Boykin was the breakout star of 2014, going from a player who struggled to find a position he fit into the year before to being the biggest reason TCU was in the playoff hunt. The Horned Frogs enter this season as a playoff favorite, so rather than start off under the radar and in need of being discovered, Boykin already has built-in notoriety.
Boykin was a distant fourth in last year's Heisman balloting, unable to crack the top three even in Big 12 country. Assuming he can at least match his previous production, and TCU stays in the semifinal hunt, he'll see his name near the top of short lists all season long.
What can get in the way
The Big 12 got snubbed from the College Football Playoff last year, and despite two legitimate powers in Baylor and TCU, it is still at a disadvantage to other conferences because of the lack of a league title game. Heisman ballots are due right after when the other leagues play those championship games, while on that same Saturday TCU will have an open date.
Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston both locked up their Heismans with strong performances in conference finals, and without that added game to boost his resume, Boykin would have to hold a near-insurmountable lead in the race to prevent the off week from hurting him.
Odds: 7-1
2. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
19 of 20
Year: Junior
Height, weight: 6'0", 225 lbs
2014 stats: 1,878 rushing yards, 6.88 YPC, 18 TD; 28 rec., 220 yards
How he can win
Despite not even making the Big Ten's all-conference team, Ezekiel Elliott was the best player in the country by the end of last season. To confirm this, he outdueled all three 2014 Heisman finalists over the course of his final three games while leading Ohio State to the national title.
Elliott ran for 696 yards and eight touchdowns against Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon en route to the championship. And while Cardale Jones' fill-in job at quarterback got the most attention, there's no denying OSU wouldn't have won those last two games without Elliott.
"Now that Elliott has strung together three consecutive multi-touchdown games of 200-plus yards, there aren't many college football fans left who aren't aware of what appears to be Ohio State's next great running back," Bleacher Report's Ben Axelrod wrote.
If the Buckeyes are still in the running for a second title when the 2015 regular season ends, there's no reason not to think Elliott will be making a trip to New York City in mid-December.
What can get in the way
Elliott's biggest hurdle to the Heisman comes in the form of his teammates. Much like when actors from an ensemble comedy or drama often struggle to win Emmys because their great performances cancel each other out, Elliott will be sharing both the spotlight and the production with whoever ends up being Ohio State's quarterback.
The performance of J.T. Barrett, Cardale Jones or Braxton Miller (the first two of which are also strong Heisman contenders, as would Miller be if he were to win back his old job) could steal much of Elliott's thunder when it comes to gaining award momentum.
Odds: 6-1
1. Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State
20 of 20
Year: Senior
Height, weight: 6'2", 230 lbs
2014 stats: 3,449 passing yards, 61.6% comp., 27 TD, 11 INT; 986 rushing yards, 14 TD
How he can win
With numbers similar to 2014 winner Marcus Mariota, Dak Prescott should enter as the Heisman favorite based on how the award has gone the past few years. The last five winners have all been quarterbacks with dual-threat capabilities, and like those before him, Prescott figures to be the main offensive weapon for his team in 2015.
Prescott figures to see his rushing numbers spike this season without the presence of a dependable running back with whom to share carries. Last season, Josh Robinson ran for more than 1,200 yards, but he left early for the NFL and no returning Bulldog ran for more than 300 yards.
What can get in the way
Prescott was among the front-runners last season as well, but when Mississippi State started to lose, his chances went down the drain. His main competition will be from players on teams expected to contend for the playoffs, and the added attention that comes with that run enhances their resumes.
MSU brings back the fourth-fewest starters of any FBS team, per PhilSteele.com, and if that lack of experience translates into too many losses, it won't matter how good Prescott's numbers are.
Odds: 5-1
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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