Did Cardale Jones Make a Mistake Not Entering the 2015 NFL Draft?

COLUMBUS, Ohio — For what it's worth, Cardale Jones insists that his decision to return to Ohio State for the 2015 season was all about education.

And the Buckeyes quarterback certainly doesn't care what I think.

But nevertheless, it was difficult to watch the first round of the NFL draft on Thursday without wondering whether or not Jones made a mistake by not entering this year's selection show. Only two quarterbacks were taken in the draft's first 32 picks—The Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected Jameis Winston first overall before Marcus Mariota was drafted second by the Tennessee Titans—and another signal-caller may not be taken off the board until Friday night's third round.

Jones likely would have changed that, although where he would have fit into this year's draft would have been complicated. The 6'5", 250-pounder only has three starts to his credit in his college career but in that time showed enough talent to potentially be taken with a first-round pick.

“As an athlete, it’s all there. He’s huge. His arm is amazing. It would be the best arm in this year’s draft. He grades great throwing it to every level of the field. Really good anticipation too," Bleacher Report Lead Draft Analyst Matt Miller said following Ohio State's win over Oregon in the national title game on Jan. 12. "I could see someone falling in love with him and going crazy."

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With so little game film on Jones to study, a lot of his hypothetical draft stock would have depended on how he fared at the NFL Scouting Combine, the Buckeyes' pro day and individual workouts with teams. With his size, arm strength and upside, though, it's hard to imagine the Cleveland native would have lasted past Friday night's second round.

Especially when you take into account the sizable gap between the two quarterbacks selected in the first round on Thursday and the next ones who are expected to be taken in this year's draft. In Miller's final seven-round mock draft, he projected Baylor's Bryce Petty to be the only quarterback picked in the second round, before Oregon State's Sean Mannion is selected in the third.

But rather than take advantage of a seemingly weak quarterback class, Jones will return to Ohio State, where he could face stiffer competition than he would have found in the draft. Despite leading the Buckeyes to three consecutive postseason wins, there's no guarantee he'll reclaim his spot in OSU's starting lineup with J.T. Barrett and Braxton Miller each returning from the injuries that opened the door for Jones to start in the first place.

"I don’t know," Jones answered when asked how he expects the Buckeyes' unprecedented quarterback competition to play out. "That’s up to the coaches. I’m just going through the spring trying to get better on a couple of personal things I want to improve on. But I’m pretty sure our coaches will figure something out."

From the outside looking in, Jones appears to be the favorite to start in Ohio State's opener in September, as he has both health and momentum on his side at the moment. Early 2016 mock drafts seem to agree, with WalterFootball.com projecting him to be taken third overall and the first quarterback selected a year from now.

And while a storybook season could very well place Jones on that trajectory, all indications from the Buckeyes' spring practice session were that the race between Jones and Barrett is already closer than expected. In fact, Meyer's plan to rely on statistical data over a "gut feeling" seems to favor Barrett, who is already ahead of schedule in his recovery from a fractured ankle.

If Barrett does wind up reclaiming his starting job, it will be interesting to see how it affects the draft stock of Jones, who has already revealed that it's his intent to enter the 2016 draft. With the Buckeyes likely to play in several blowouts as they defend their national title, there could be enough time for Jones to still showcase the skills that would have made him such an intriguing prospect in this year's draft.

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Or Jones could start and come back to earth, revealing deficiencies that weren't previously put on display during his starts against Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon. There are simply a lot of directions that Jones could take in the next 12 months, with no guarantee that his stock will ever be as high as it is right now.

"It's kind of cool to be sitting here using the word 'NFL' next to Cardale's name," Urban Meyer said the morning after OSU's national title win. "I will tell you this: He could play in the NFL."

And make no mistake: Jones believes that, too. So much so that he was willing to put his dream off for a year, betting on himself that he wouldn't just retain but also improve his standing with NFL teams.

"Football has always been a stepping stone for my education," Jones said in January. "I thought it all through. The chances (of being a first-round draft pick in 2015) are slim."

And at the time, maybe they were. But after watching how it shook out after just one round, it sure seems like Jones' future would already be a lot more certain had he opted to enter the draft.

Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten Lead Writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.