The Six 2015 NBA Free Agents with the Most on the Line in the Playoffs Right Now
There's no stage like the NBA playoffs, and that goes doubly for those looking to audition in advance of their free agency this summer.
The playoffs may be all about team success. They're also, however, a prime opportunity for individual players. Regular-season numbers are all well and good, but success at the postseason level indicates a different kind of pedigree. Some players are looking to cement their statuses and the contractual figures implied thereby. Others are just trying to prove they're still relevant.
We're taking a closer look at six free agents who have something extra at stake in these playoffs. They're ranked according to who has the most on the line. Who stands to gain or lose the most depending on how the remainder of the postseason goes?
Note that this list only includes players still in the playoffs as of May 1.
Honorable Mentions
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Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Kawhi Leonard doesn't have much more to prove, which is a good thing because he may have only one more game in which to prove it.
Leonard's San Antonio Spurs visit the Los Angeles Clippers for what promises to be an epic Game 7 on Saturday. The 23-year-old may have to play exceptionally for San Antonio to win, but he won't be playing for a maximum contract this summer.
According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, that's already in the bag.
In April, he wrote, "Leonard wants to be a Spur, and the Spurs are expected to come calling on July 1 with the max offer that they resisted delivering Leonard in the preseason, a move born out of preserving cap space to bring on a star free agent this summer."
And after a season in which Leonard won Defensive Player of the Year Honors while expanding his offensive game (and leading the Spurs in scoring), the Spurs' max offer would be hardly surprising. They need a franchise cornerstone for the post-Tim Duncan era, and Leonard appears to be the perfect fit.
So yes, technically Leonard will be playing for a max deal in Game 7, but he's probably had it locked up for some time—certainly after that 32-point Game 3 statement against the Clippers.
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
Like Leonard, Jimmy Butler's max deal is all but official. He made extra sure of that during the first round with averages of 24.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.5 steals per contest against the Milwaukee Bucks.
These playoffs are the culmination of a season-long effort for Butler. His offense has blossomed. His defense has remained exceptional. And his abilities to lead and take over a game are coming into their own. The Bulls would be crazy to offer Butler anything less than maximum money, especially with a less restrictive salary cap on the horizon.
Butler may well be the league's best shooting guard this side of James Harden and Klay Thompson. He's been a source of stability for a team that's again endured its share of injuries, and he's done so at age 25.
The best is likely yet to come for the fourth-year pro. And Chicago knows it.
Back in January, the Chicago Tribune's David Haugh reported that the organization was prepared to open up the checkbook in a big way.
"[The Bulls] fully expect to sign Butler to a max deal next July before another team even gets involved to tempt him with an offer sheet, which the CBA says they can after the moratorium ends. They accept that the size of Butler's contract will put the Bulls in position to pay the luxury tax, something Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf says he will do for a championship contender his team is.
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No surprise there.
While there's much on the line for Butler contractually, there's plenty at stake in terms of actual basketball. His Bulls are attempting to establish themselves as perennial contenders, and they'll have to get through LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers first.
With Butler in top form, the Bulls have a chance to do just that.
6. Draymond Green—Restricted, Golden State Warriors
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By now, Draymond Green's worth really isn't in doubt. The runner-up for this season's Defensive Player of the Year award is as versatile as they come, a two-way wrecking ball with playmaking ability and a better-than-average outside touch.
With as much as the Golden State Warriors will spend on their roster next season, it's hard to imagine them letting Green get away.
"I've talked to some people in the Golden State Warriors organization. They said they're going to match whatever... Doesn't matter," Mychal Thompson said in March, via Bay Area News Group's Diamond Leung.
That could well mean matching—or outright offering—maximum money. Given Green's rare skill set, that's a pretty likely scenario.
More than for any dollar amount, Green is just playing to prove he's still a special player at the postseason level. So far, he's done so admirably.
The 25-year-old upped his averages across the board in the opening round, posting 15.8 points, 12.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 2.5 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. If that max money wasn't secured already, it is now.
5. Paul Millsap—Unrestricted, Atlanta Hawks
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Paul Millsap may not stray far from the Atlanta Hawks, but the real question is whether there will be a raise involved.
"We want to keep him," head coach Mike Budenholzer said back in October. "He is someone who is really important to us. He fits us very well. We've communicated that with him on a regular basis."
So we know where the Hawks stand. But Millsap hasn't been especially vocal about his intentions.
"It's always in the back of your head but at the end of the day you have to go out there and play basketball regardless of your situation," Millsap said before the season. "I have to focus on this year, one game at a time. Don't look too far ahead. Stay in the present."
That philosophy seems to have paid off. Millsap had another All-Star campaign and helped Atlanta secure the Eastern Conference's best record. One might imagine that means an increase over the $9.5 million he made this season.
On the other hand, part of Millsap's charm is his affordability. He may have to have a particularly strong showing (amid a particularly deep playoff run) to change that.
4. Marc Gasol—Unrestricted, Memphis Grizzlies
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It's not about earning money at this point for Marc Gasol. There's nothing left from him to prove on the brink of free agency.
If anything, this is about what the Memphis Grizzlies can prove to him—namely that they're a franchise that can legitimately contend. The organization already has one advantage in the center's sweepstakes: It can pay him more than other suitors.
In March, Sheridan Hoops' Chris Sheridan shared this insight:
"He probably isn't going anywhere, either. And a little birdie who knows of what he speaks tells me Gasol has already ruled out playing for the New York Knicks. It's nothing personal with Phil Jackson or that consummate New Yorker, Jim Dolan (gag). It's a matter of money. He can get a five-year deal to stay in Memphis, where he attended high school. After taxes, that will be worth more than twice what he would get from New York.
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One can only speculate that another premature postseason exit might change that thinking. Even if Gasol has indeed ruled out the Knicks, other clubs will almost certainly come calling. He commented extensively on Memphis' appeal and his thinking process later in March to the New York Post's Fred Kerber:
"I don't know what factors will play into my decision, but the factors that are there today, you can't change the past. You can’t change where I've been for the majority of my life as an adult.
I came to Memphis when I was 16. My family's been tied to the franchise since the franchise has been in Memphis. You can't change that. I don't know what the future holds, but I know what the past and the present is. I think that's pretty clear, and we'll see how it goes going forward. We'll see what factors go into my decision. I haven't put them down or written them down or even thought about them, because I think there's no time. Like I said, it's just not a process you can go through in the season.
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So while Memphis almost certainly has the edge in keeping Gasol, he at least has something to think about. All the more so if the Grizzlies struggle mightily against Golden State in the conference semifinals.
3. DeAndre Jordan—Unrestricted, Los Angeles Clippers
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The Los Angeles Clippers will likely offer DeAndre Jordan whatever he wants. The real question is whether he can increase the size of his market.
To that end, ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon offered an interesting nugget recently, writing, "Another potential prize summer target for the Mavs: Clippers center DeAndre Jordan, who multiple sources say has made it clear through back channels that he will be extremely interested in coming to Dallas. "
Presumably, a team like Dallas would also be pretty interested in Jordan. The Mavericks may be less interested in his price tag, though, particularly with a glaring need at the point guard spot in light of Rajon Rondo's departure.
There's also a chance shooting guard Monta Ellis could opt out of his contract's final year. Though that wouldn't guarantee a departure from Dallas, it could certainly come to that—thereby adding another high-priority item to the organization's to-do list.
Jordan would be a great addition for the club, but at what cost? Other potential suitors—e.g. the New York Knicks or Los Angeles Lakers—may be wondering the same. It's not so much a question of whether Jordan is worth the money in a vacuum. He's a league-leading rebounder with a dominant above-the-rim game.
The question is whether teams will be willing to spend that money. Jordan has so far averaged 13.5 points and 13.2 rebounds against San Antonio, and he'll have at least one more game to demonstrate his exceptional double-double prowess.
2. Tristan Thompson—Restricted, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Tristan Thompson's days as a reserve may finally be coming to an end.
The Cleveland Cavaliers power forward will have ample opportunity to prove he deserves a promotion during the remainder of these playoffs. He'll see a spike in minutes while Kevin Love recovers from shoulder surgery, and that spike could well showcase a set of skills many haven't seen in action.
We know Thompson can rebound—particularly on the offensive end—but he also has a quietly solid post and mid-range game that could win him a starting job on a team in need of frontcourt help. A pricey enough offer could make Cleveland think twice about matching, potentially translating into the 24-year-old's departure from the franchise that drafted him in 2011.
Such a change of scenery might not be a bad thing.
Thompson averaged 8.5 points and 8.0 rebounds in just 26.8 minutes per game this season. With increased playing time and more touches, there's really no telling where those numbers could fall. Per 36 minutes, he averaged 11.4 points and 10.8 rebounds, so that may give us some indication.
The next couple of weeks are big for Thompson. If he raises his game in Love's absence, his free-agent stock could climb markedly.
1. Josh Smith—Unrestricted, Houston Rockets
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It probably wouldn't be an overstatement to say Josh Smith is playing for a meaningful future in this league. After he had a dismal two-plus-year stint with the Detroit Pistons, the Houston Rockets took Smith on as added depth behind then-injured Terrence Jones.
So far, Smith has earned his minutes and become a halfway-consistent contributor off the bench. The 29-year-old averaged 12 points and six rebounds per game in 55 appearances with the Rockets this season, and he shot the ball far more efficiently than he had in Detroit.
That should make him a free-agent target for someone, perhaps the Rockets themselves. And while Smith will be compensated handsomely on account of his previously bought-out deal with the Pistons, now's also the time for him to add some value to his next contract.
In short, this is an audition of sorts for Smith—a chance to prove he can contribute to a winning team and play within himself rather than jacking up long two-pointers at every opportunity.
A little smart play could go a long way for Smith. He's in fine position to establish himself as more than another reclamation project.
