Bundesliga: The Fight for Survival

The Bundesliga has found itself as a source of criticism and derision over the last few years, with some claiming that it simply isn’t competitive enough. Those wanting evidence for that argument would only need to highlight the ease with which Bayern Munich have secured recent titles.

Those merely looking at the top of the table, though, are missing out. For elsewhere in the Bundesliga, there is plenty of excitement. With both the battle for the Europa League spots and survival looking likely to go down to the final games, there are very few teams who have nothing left to play for.

Indeed it could be argued that the Bundesliga is the most competitive league in Europe right now.

The aforementioned battle for survival still looks likely to have many twists and turns before the season reaches its climax. With four games of the regular season to go, many of which see sides at the bottom taking on each other, there is still much excitement to be had.

But in four games' time, we will finally know which two teams will be automatically relegated and which will have the tense and anxious play-off affair to decide their destiny. In what order will the bottom five finish?

Here we look to predict the final standings for the 2014-2015 Bundesliga campaign.

14. Hamburger SV: 36 Points

Martin Meissner/Associated Press

Current Position

16th—28 Points

Remaining Fixtures

1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)—Draw

SC Freiburg (H)—Win

VfB Stuttgart (A)—Draw

FC Schalke 04 (H)—Win

Form

Hamburger SV were the only side in the bottom five to secure a victory last weekend, with their thrilling 3-2 victory over Augsburg pushing them up the table to 16th, leaving safety in sight for the first time in months.

Up until that point the team had been in woeful form. Poor managerial changes and a disinterested looking squad meant that Hamburg preserving their Bundesliga status seemed improbable.

But this has changed in recent weeks, with the appointment of Bruno Labbadia arguably the first positive alteration of personnel the club have made all season.

While HSV were narrowly defeated in Labbadia’s first game in charge against Werder Bremen, there were recognisable differences in his side to the one we had seen for months before. This was continued into last weekend’s victory where the team showed more fight and passion than they had all season, securing a winner despite seeing their two-goal lead slip.

Such determination will now be required until the very last minutes of the campaign.

Key Player—Pierre-Michel Lasogga

On paper HSV arguably have the best squad out of the bottom five, but as has been clear from their performances this season, the best squad on paper does not always translate on to the pitch.

One of those to disappoint has been Pierre-Michel Lasogga. However, there were indications in the win over Augsburg that the 23-year-old is coming into form at just the right time.

Scoring twice in the 3-2 victory (including one thunderbolt), Lasogga’s display demonstrated what he can do when he is on form. In the space of 75 minutes, he doubled his tally for the season, and his side’s survival bid will be greatly assisted if he can maintain such form.

Verdict

Up until last weekend, goals had been a real problem for the team. Indeed they had failed to score in their six previous games, something that looked destined to end their hopes of survival.

But Labbadia has got the wheels turning again for the club. His managerial capabilities, together with an encouraging-looking fixture list, should be enough to secure Hamburg’s survival in the Bundesliga. Keeping the team up would be a magnificent achievement given how dead such dreams appeared to be a couple of weeks ago.

15. SC Freiburg: 34 Points

Frank Augstein/Associated Press

Current Position

14th—30 Points

Remaining Fixtures

SC Paderborn 07 (H)—Win

Hamburger SV (A)—Lose

Bayern Munich (H)—Lose

Hannover 96 (A)—Draw

Form

As far as form at the bottom of the Bundesliga goes, SC Freiburg are the side currently boasting the best record.

In their last five games, they have secured two wins and two draws, with just one solitary defeat pulling them slightly further ahead of the chasing pack. However, the fact that those two victories came at the beginning of the sequence may be of slight concern.

Much of their recent success has been to do with the fact that, unlike many of the other struggling sides at the bottom, Christian Streich’s team have a decent defensive record.

Up until the last two fixtures, in which they have conceded five times, Freiburg’s defence had not been breached in the three games beforehand. A stable back line is going to be imperative if they are to continue to pull away from their fellow battlers.

Key Player—Nils Petersen

As with Lasogga at Hamburg, Nils Petersen’s form will have a large say in how easy Christian Streich’s men find it to secure safety.

An in-form striker is something all sides fighting for their lives require, and when he has been fit, Petersen has been exactly what Freiburg have needed. With six goals in his last eight games, the 26-year-old has put in the sort of performances which suggest he belongs at a higher level than a relegation battle.

However, he has a major problem in staying fit. Since joining the club in the winter break, Petersen has missed five of a possible 13 games through injury. Who knows—had he not missed those games, Freiburg may well have already secured their safety for another year.

Verdict

Despite Freiburg being one of the in-form sides at the bottom of the Bundesliga, they are not yet safe from the fear of relegation. This is largely because of the fixtures that remain for them. A game against Bayern Munich is likely to have already been written off by Streich when evaluating which games his side will secure points in.

They also face a rejuvenated Hamburg, as well as fellow strugglers Paderborn and Hannover 96. While they will expect to pick up all three points at home to the former this weekend, a game on the final day of the season against Hannover may prove a slightly tougher ask.

That being said, if they can pick up a handful of points from the three games against those sides competing with them for survival, they should be a fixture in the next Bundesliga campaign

16. VfB Stuttgart: 34 Points

Frank Augstein/Associated Press

Current Position

18th—27 Points

Remaining Fixtures

FC Schalke 04 (A)—Lose

1. FSV Mainz 05 (H)—Win

Hamburger SV (H)—Draw

SC Paderborn 07 (A)—Win

Form

VfB Stuttgart’s place at the bottom of the league does not quite tell the whole story. While they are the side with the most to do, the Swabians are already on some run of form, meaning their task is not as arduous as it may have once appeared to be.

In their last five games, Stuttgart have picked up seven points, in the form of impressive victories over Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen, and a draw with Freiburg.

The latter, though, will definitely be seen as two points dropped, rather than one point gained, with Huub Stevens’ side throwing away a two-goal lead last weekend. The fact that they would be 16th if they had held on indicates just how tight matters are at the bottom.

Nevertheless, having appeared to be doomed a month or so ago, Stuttgart players and supporters would certainly take the position that they are currently in.

Key Players—Martin Harnick and Daniel Ginczek

Such has been the excellence of Martin Harnick and Daniel Ginczek in the last month or so that it is very difficult to separate them and pick one over the other. A large chunk of Stuttgart’s improvement has been a result of Harnick and Ginczek getting into the goalscoring mood.

With seven goals this season, Harnick is the bottom-placed outfit’s top scorer, and in recent weeks, his impact has been of great importance, with the Austrian scoring twice and assisting another two in his last four appearances.

It would be difficult to argue with the assumption that, injuries aside, Ginczek would be the top scorer. The 24-year-old has been frustrated for almost the entire campaign by one injury or another but since returning to fitness has netted six times in eight games, including four in his last three.

Verdict

The battle for the play-off spot could end up being the tightest of them all, especially if the predictions above for both Stuttgart and Freiburg are close to the mark. Indeed, it is possible that goal difference may end up deciding which team survives and which has to go through the angst of another fixture.

While they will be doing all they can to ensure their own safety, Stuttgart will be hoping to see Freiburg concede many goals in their game against Bayern Munich.

Stevens will be looking to pick up as close to maximum points as possible in the final three games in an attempt to secure what seemed the most unlikely of survival stories a matter of weeks ago.

17. Hannover 96: 31 Points

Frank Augstein/Associated Press

Current Position

15th—29 Points

Remaining Fixtures

VfL Wolfsburg (A)—Lose

SV Werder Bremen (H)—Draw

FC Augsburg (A)—Lose

SC Freiburg (H)—Draw

Form

Without doubt the worst team in the Bundesliga at this current moment. Hannover have been in free fall ever since the winter break. Based on results in the first half of the campaign, Die Roten would be in eighth place, but without a win since December, they are currently enduring rotten form.

In their last six games alone, they have been beaten four times, while replacing Tayfun Korkut with Michael Frontzeck has hardly inspired great hope among fans of the side. Something needs to drastically change for this Hannover outfit or they could very well be heading out of the top flight.

Key Player—Lars Stindl

Whether Frontzeck can keep Hannover in the Bundesliga will depend on the form of two players. With eight goals to his name, Joselu will be the man expected to provide the firepower, while there will be every faith in Lars Stindl behind him to contribute with goals and assists.

Stindl’s future in the Bundesliga is already secure, having signed for Borussia Monchengladbach, but he will be desperate to keep Hannover in the league before he departs. When Stindl ticks, by and large so too do Hannover. So often the man to bail them out when they have been poor, Stindl will be the player who leads the charge for Hannover.

Verdict

Based on current form, there seems little hope that Hannover can beat the rest to claim their place in the Bundesliga. To say they have been awful in the second half of the current campaign would arguably be kind. Nothing has gone right for the club, and on the whole, they only have themselves to blame.

While the goals of Joselu and Stindl will be key, they will also be looking to their defence to remain as tight and stubborn a unit as possible, something which thus far sees them with the second best goal difference at the bottom.

However, when viewing their remaining fixtures, it makes for painful viewing. If Hannover are to stay up, not only will they need to secure points against fellow strugglers Freiburg, but they will also need to taste success against at least one of Wolfsburg, Werder Bremen or Augsburg.

Failure to do so and Hannover will be left ruing perhaps the worst second half to a Bundesliga season ever.

18. SC Paderborn 07: 30 Points

Frank Augstein/Associated Press

Current Position

17th—28 Points

Remaining Fixtures

SC Freiburg (A)—Lose

VfL Wolfsburg (H)—Draw

FC Schalke 04 (A)—Draw

VfB Stuttgart (H)—Lose

Form

Not the free fall experienced by Hannover but not the encouraging results of Freiburg, it has been an indifferent time for Paderborn, who have turned in the sort of performances you might associate with a team fighting for their life.

If there is to be one generalisation, it is that, like Hannover, Paderborn have really experienced a season of two halves. Heading into the winter break, the Bundesliga debutants were sitting happily in mid-table.

Since then, though, it has all gone a little bit wrong for Andre Breitenreiter and his men. Such form has seen them plummet towards the league’s basement battle, though they will have been buoyed by recent success against Augsburg.

Nevertheless, it has very much been a case of one step forward, two steps back, something that will have felt particularly resonant last weekend when, having led Werder Bremen 2-0, they conspired to concede twice, dropping a couple of points in the process.

Key Player—Elias Kachunga

As has already been stated, if you are struggling, having the services of an in-form forward is vital. At this point in the season, goals are worth so much more. They can be the difference between top-flight football and playing in the second tier. With that in mind, Paderborn will be desperate for Elias Kachunga to rediscover some sort of form.

After three goals in his first four games, finding the net has become increasingly harder for the attacker. He, like the team as a whole, has massively struggled since the turn of the year, scoring just once in 2015. Now would be a better time than ever to find the touch he possessed when things were rosy in the Paderborn garden.

Verdict

A difficult set of remaining games, coupled with possessing both the worst defence and second worst attack make celebrations in four games time seem very unlikely. There is a feeling that throwing away a two-goal lead last weekend was symbolic of Paderborn throwing away their Bundesliga status.

After what seemed like such a promising start to life in the top flight, it has all gone downhill, with two victories in 2015 just not good enough. An immediate return to the second tier of German football seems a sad, if likely outcome.