Kentucky Derby Picks 2015: Predictions for Projected Lineup at Churchill Downs

The post-position draw has yet to take place, but that won't stop some very early speculation regarding the 2015 Kentucky Derby. After all, we don't need gate numbers to know which horses are favored, which may be sneaky sleepers and which to avoid completely.

Vegas oddsmakers have already released the lines for each contender in this year's field, via Odds Shark, and while they see American Pharoah as the odds-on favorite, many horse racing enthusiasts are partial to the powerful Dortmund. Although, those aren't the only two contenders capable of donning the coveted garland of roses upon the race's conclusion.

A strong case can be made for the Todd Pletcher-trained Carpe Diem, and notable sleepers such as Firing Line, International Star and Materiality can't be discounted. So, as we await the post positions to be revealed, let's make some early superfecta projections.

Superfecta Prediction and Analysis

Finish	Horse	Trainer	Jockey
Win	American Pharoah	Bob Baffert	Victor Espinoza
Place	Dortmund	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia
Show	Firing Line	Simon Callaghan	Gary Stevens
Fourth	Carpe Diem	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez

There we have it. It's rather difficult to pick against American Pharoah due to his recent sparkling performances in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, winning them by six-and-one-quarter and eight lengths, respectively, against Kentucky Derby contenders.

This three-year-old colt has a silky-smooth glide to his gallop and appears capable of sustaining a quick pace without overexerting himself. This allows him to salvage stamina for his late-race push that continues to propel him well beyond the front of the pack.

Here's a perfect example of his racing style in the Arkansas Derby:

That blazing pace throughout the final stretch will be the reason Pharoah outlasts Dortmund at Churchill Downs.

Dortmund is an exceptional horse, possessing long legs and a powerful gallop. He's been extremely impressive throughout his young career, remaining unbeaten through six races and recently winning the Santa Anita Derby by four-and-one-quarter lengths over Kentucky Derby contenders Far Right and Mr. Z.

While the colt ran a brilliant race, he appeared to slow up a bit down the final stretch, and that may be a cause for concern considering the additional length he must run in the Kentucky Derby. Take a look at his performance at Santa Anita:

Firing Line is the surprise here. Many bettors are sleeping on this horse due to his recent track record, earning two first-place finishes and two runner-up finishes over his last four showings. However, he was phenomenal in his Sunland Derby victory, winning by 14-and-one-quarter lengths, while both of his runner-up finishes were to Dortmund.

In fact, he was able to keep up with Dortmund nicely in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes back in February, as Firing Line fell by a mere head. Take a glance at the race in its entirety:

Rounding out the top four is Carpe Diem. He's been fantastic during his two three-year-old races, winning the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes. His performance at Keeneland was solid, as he took a three-length victory over Kentucky Derby contenders Danzig Moon and Ocho Ocho Ocho.

The one knock against Carpe Diem is his second-place finish to Texas Red in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile back in November of 2014. While Carpe Diem made a nice run down the race's final few furlongs, he couldn't come close to keeping up with the closing speed of Texas Red, losing by six-and-one-half lengths. That race showed Carpe Diem's closing ability is just good enough to earn him a top-four finish.