Why the Chargers Should Make a Non-Mariota Trade in 2015 NFL Draft

After doing a little extra due diligence on Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, the San Diego Chargers now appear content to hold on to Philip Rivers even if he isn’t ready to commit to the team beyond next season, according to Peter King of the MMQB. That means the Chargers have the No. 17 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft and need to maximize its impact to convince Rivers to stick around.

The big problem with picking at No. 17 is that all the first-round grades could be off the board—especially those that may also fill a position of need. The Seattle Seahawks traded away the 31st overall pick for tight end Jimmy Graham in part because they only had 16 players with first-round grades, per King.

The situation makes the Chargers prime candidates to trade up or down a few picks. Moving up to nab a top-graded player ensures the Chargers get a player worthy to be called a first-round pick. Moving back ensures that the Chargers get value for a pick when just one player can’t adequately provide enough of a return.

Moving Up

The Chargers may feel like there are only two or three offensive linemen worthy of first-round picks. Stanford’s Andrus Peat, LSU’s La’el Collins and Iowa’s Brandon Scherff come to mind. Oregon’s Jake Fisher and Florida’s D.J. Humphries could also be candidates.

It’s not a particularly strong draft for offensive linemen, so the Charges could be looking to take advantage of their draft position to add a top talent. If the Chargers don’t go after a top offensive lineman early in the draft, they likely won’t be getting a player capable of starting right away.

If the Chargers decide to go after a top pass-rusher, trading up for a falling talent also makes a lot of sense. In no particular order, Vic Beasley, Dante Fowler Jr. and Alvin "Bud" Dupree are the top three edge players who should come off the board early in the first round.

If, for some reason, one of the top edge players were to fall within a few picks of the Chargers, a trade up could help make-up for letting Dwight Freeney walk in free agency and for the retirement of Jarret Johnson.

If Shane Ray and Randy Gregory do end up sliding into the second round, it will only increase the value of the top three pass-rushers. Ray was "cited for possession of marijuana" on Monday, per Brandon Kiley of KTGR of Columbia, Missouri. If the Chargers were to get into striking distance for a player that they didn’t expect to be able to draft, they have to consider such a move.

One scenario where a trade up could be necessary is if they want to land one of the two top running backs. Once Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon come off the board, there is going to be pressure to move up to get the other one.

"

Whoa. Polian just said Melvin Gordon's burst reminds him a little of LT. That is a bold statement but from that guy I'd believe it.

— Derek Togerson (@DerekNBCSD) April 27, 2015"

The top half of the first round seems early for running backs, but on the other side of that is that Gurley and Gordon should make an immediate impact. A running back would also be something the Chargers could use to convince Rivers they are his best option long term.

Moving Down

If all the first-round grades on the Chargers’ draft board are gone when they get on the clock, then trading down is the way to go. Especially since the Chargers are at a point in the draft that some teams drafting behind them could be looking to move up for that last player with a first-round grade on their boards.

The Chargers currently have only six selections in the draft—tied for the least in the league. Moving down allows general manager Tom Telesco another shot or two at drafting players who could make an impact in 2015. Since there is a huge swathe of players with second-round grades, the Chargers could potentially land those extra picks without sacrificing much in the way of value.

There’s also the added benefit of lowering expectations for the player they do end up drafting. Taking a player at No. 17 that has a second-round grade isn’t preferred in terms of helping manage expectations.

If they don’t trade down, the Chargers would be in the situation where a player they don’t believe is a first-round talent has to fulfill lofty first-round expectations. That’s hard for a team to manage when it comes to fans and media.

The New England Patriots have been trading down for years when it becomes clear players with first-round grades won’t be available to them. The Patriots routinely drop out of the first round entirely, but the Chargers don’t have to make a move that drastic to see the reward.

Of the two moves he can make, Telesco may be more willing to move down a few spots than up a few spots for the simple reason that he only has six picks. The offensive linemen and the pass-rushers after the top tier are off the board are also a bit deeper, so he doesn’t have to target a specific player but rather a range of players.

Staying put is always an option, but the Chargers sit at a key spot in the draft for moving up and down the board. Given their need to help Rivers, moving up makes more sense. Given their lack of picks and the depth of the draft in the middle rounds, moving down makes more sense. Telesco is in the rare position where he can consider both depending on the situation.