Lessons Learned from the Memphis Grizzlies' 1st-Round Series with the Blazers
Through the Memphis Grizzlies' 3-1 first-round series edge against the Portland Trail Blazers, a clearer picture of the Grizzlies' postseason outlook may be gleaned.
The Grizzlies allowed the Blazers to linger in the series, as Portland took Game 4 at home 99-92 on Monday. That was due in part to Memphis' first-half bumbling and a premature removal of all starters by Grizzlies head coach Dave Joerger in a 10-point game with eight minutes left that allowed the Blazers to seize momentum.
The short-run lineup of Jon Leuer, Jeff Green, Beno Udrih, Kosta Koufos and Vince Carter revealed, among other things, that Green might not be able to carry such a thin-shooting bench lineup.
Jeff Green can't be a hero
The Grizzlies had managed to shield the offense from damage done by Green's erratic offense for much of the first three games.
Then, as he found chances left by Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, who declined to shoot much in the first half of Game 4, Green registered just seven points on 3-of-10 shooting while mostly hoisting wild shots.
The only time he connected in the second half was on a 27-footer that could only have been conceived in the moment.
The 28-year-old made one of four long two-pointers, which he seemed to take by reflex rather than the flow of the offense.
With the aforementioned fourth-quarter lineup, Green missed three shots in two minutes, two of which were within six feet.
No one would keep Green from his ill-fated attempts. Carter had dipped into his deferential regular-season form. Koufos and Leuer aren't volunteering as playoff shooters.
The Commercial Appeal's Chris Herrington was quick to point out how Green, who has posted nine points per game on 27.9 percent shooting in the series, hasn't helped the Grizzlies against the Blazers:
Joerger tried to push off a question about Green's shot selection, as The Commercial Appeal's Michael Cohen tweeted:
Green heats up an offense, but his inconsistency can sink it just as quickly. He hit below 40 percent in 18 of 45 games for Memphis in the regular season, and the Grizzlies lost 10 of those contests.
Previously, Green has plugged holes for playoff teams. He led the Boston Celtics with 20.3 points per game in their 2013 first-round loss to the New York Knicks. In the 2011 postseason, he deposited 11.8 per game for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
But his career 37.8 percent field-goal mark in the playoffs is unhealthy for a player whom the Grizzlies need to lead the bench effort.
Steering shots away from him won't work, since the Grizzlies will play plenty of lineups with Green that are light on shooters. The point guards can at least direct him toward shots operating within the offense.
Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph have barely arrived
The central part of Memphis' playoff attack isn't as threatening as it should be thus far.
Gasol and Randolph aren't hitting shots or making a defensive impact consistently.
Gasol is leading the team with 19 points per game, but he has made only 37.5 percent from the field. In Games 2 and 4, he needed time to turn on his motor and burn Meyers Leonard with his inside finishing ability.
His defense wasn't as effective in Games 3 or 4, as Portland moved quickly. He missed some defensive rotations due to the pace.
Randolph is posting 13.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game while making 34.3 percent of his shots from the field.
He's not hesitating to take the best shots, as seen by his 20 field-goal attempts in Game 4.
Portland discovered in that game it could take away Randolph's defensive presence by elevating the pace and focusing on perimeter shots. He wasn't able to throw his weight around as much with fewer back-to-the-basket situations.
Their problems could signal that they're struggling to play at a higher tempo that doesn't suit their playoff preference. Through their playoff success, including the first two games of this series, the pair has thrived on slower action and pounding the ball inside against opponents.
The Grizzlies are concerned about Gasol and Randolph's struggles. At halftime of Game 4, assistant coach Elston Turner expressed the need for their production, as Fox Sports South's Rob Fischer tweeted:
"Half- assistant coach Elston Turner told me "our stars have to produce" and pointed out ZBo's 2 points at the half and Gasol's 1 rebound
— Rob Fischer (@thefishnation) April 28, 2015"
Randolph responded with 10 second-half points, but it wasn't enough.
When the Grizzlies can get three-point opportunities—as in Game 2 and the first half of Game 4—they can survive the doldrums of their big men. But for a team that was next-to-last in three-point attempts and averaged 12 per game through four games against the Blazers, it isn't a reliable replacement.
The backup point guards' relatively low ceiling
Mike Conley's latest in a string of injuries could deal the team a serious blow. He underwent facial surgery after suffering a fracture from an elbow to the eye from C.J. McCollum during Game 3 on Saturday.
According to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports, Conley could return if the Grizzlies advance to face the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference semifinals. However, his timetable for recovery hasn't been set.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are at a loss in using two backup point guards—Udrih and Nick Calathes—to replace Conley's contributions, which aren't merely measured in numbers.
One of those is how Conley artfully manages the flow of the offense, as SB Nation's Mike Prada discussed. Flow is important for keeping shooters like Green in check.
This is clear in the lack of coordination on offense and defensive lapses.
CBSSports.com's Zach Harper noted how easily Damian Lillard attacked in his 32-point Game 4 performance with Conley out:
"When Beno Udrih came into the game, the Grizzlies just gave up too much on both ends and his scoring wasn't enough to overcome it. You miss so much of Conley's presence on Lillard. Conley is so good at getting through screens in pick-and-rolls that it greatly affects how comfortable Lillard can be navigating those screens with the ball.
"
Udrih, who's often a step behind defensively, can't match Conley's contribution on that end.
The Slovenian has provided scoring support, averaging 14.3 points per game in the series, but he doesn't ensure offensive balance like Conley does.
Calathes managed 12 points in Game 4 while draining four of his five three-point attempts. However, he missed all five shots inside the arc. The second-year player lacks Conley's quickness to create openings in the Grizzlies' compressed offense.
Unlike Udrih, Calathes can help on defense. He had three steals in Game 4 and 2.7 per 36 minutes in the regular season. Still, Calathes told The Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery he felt he could have defended Lillard better.
Conclusion
Even without Conley and efficient shooting from Randolph and Gasol, the Grizzlies came close to sweeping the Blazers. Hence, completing the series in five games isn't out of the question.
The bigger picture is about whether they can survive with a member of their core missing a significant amount of time. The Golden State Warriors, who had the top-rated defense in the regular season and held the New Orleans Pelicans to 100.8 points per 100 possessions in a first-round sweep, will force Udrih into uncomfortable positions and diminish his rhythm.
Statistics are current through April 27 games. Unless otherwise noted, advanced metrics come from Basketball-Reference.com.
Tom Firme is a Memphis Grizzlies Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @TFirme.
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