2015 NFL Draft: Breaking Down the Possibilities for the No. 2 Overall Pick
The No. 2 overall pick appears to be the pivot point of the 2015 NFL draft. What the Tennessee Titans do with that selection could have a significant ripple effect on how the first round plays out.
While there have been rumors that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could draft Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, per Joe Bussell on Twitter, or even trade the No. 1 overall pick, per Bob Glauber of Newsday, it remains widely presumed that Tampa Bay will kick off the draft by selecting Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston.
On the other hand, there is no consensus on what the Titans will do with the No. 2 overall pick. While some believe the Titans will also upgrade at quarterback by drafting Mariota, others expect them to trade the pick. Perhaps Tennessee could select a top prospect who doesn’t play quarterback in the second slot.
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The rumor mill has been spinning fast, but it is still unlikely that the world will get a conclusive answer on what will happen with the No. 2 overall pick until shortly after 8 p.m. ET Thursday.
With that in mind, we take a look at all the realistic possibilities of what could happen at No. 2 and how each of those possibilities could shape the draft to follow.
Possibility No. 1: Titans Draft the Best Quarterback Available
Even if Tampa Bay goes off-script with the No. 1 overall pick, the Titans are guaranteed to have an opportunity to select one of the draft’s two top-tier quarterback prospects—Winston or Mariota—at No. 2.
The Titans have demonstrated interest in Winston and Mariota, having sent a contingent to each of their pro days and hosted each of them for predraft visits. Whether they are seriously contemplating drafting whichever quarterback is available, however, remains unknown.
Ultimately, the Titans’ decision might have less to do with their opinions of the prospects than their faith in their incumbent starter, 2014 sixth-round pick Zach Mettenberger.
Typically, a sixth-round pick with just six starts under his belt would not stop a team from drafting a top-notch quarterback prospect. Mettenberger, however, is not your typical sixth-round pick; according to David Climer of The Tennessean, the Titans view their big, strong-armed sophomore signal-caller “as a poor team’s Tom Brady.”
Passing up a quarterback to give the starting job to Mettenberger would be a risky move for general manager Ruston Webster and his fellow Titans decision-makers. If Mettenberger falters in 2015 and the quarterback Tennessee passes up goes on to have a great rookie year, Webster and his colleagues might lose their jobs.
That said, the Titans will only draft a quarterback at No. 2—likely Mariota—if they are confident that passer will be a significant upgrade over Mettenberger. And it’s possible Mariota might not be. While he is a much better athlete than Mettenberger and a more accurate passer at this point, Mettenberger has a stronger arm and more experience passing from the pocket.
For what it’s worth, the feeling among at least some personnel executives within the league is that the Titans plan to keep the pick and draft Mariota, according to Bleacher Report’s Mike Freeman.
“I spoke to five NFL personnel men about where they believed Mariota would go in the upcoming draft, and all believed he'd be picked by Tennessee,” Freeman wrote earlier this week. “Every one. No hesitation.”
NFL Media’s Albert Breer also believes the Titans could be eyeing a selection of Mariota:
Yahoo Sports’ Eric Edholm, however, is among those who think the Titans have other intentions:
Possibility No. 2: Titans Trade Down
Unless the Titans have decided to draft Mariota for themselves, the expectation is that they are looking to trade down, as at least a half-dozen teams below them are believed to have interest in the quarterback.
The Titans well could be in the midst of a bidding war between multiple teams interested in dealing up to draft Mariota. Should that be the case, the Titans must decide which trade package offers them the most value and whether that package is worth giving up their opportunity to select a top quarterback or one of the draft’s other premier talents.
Seemingly crazy trade rumors are always a part of the buildup to the draft, so it is tough to predict whether any of the potential deals being suggested—some of which include prominent veteran players in addition to draft picks—will come to fruition. Nonetheless, all of the following teams have been linked to the possibility of moving up for Mariota, and will have to decide whether acquiring the quarterback would be worth what it would cost.
At the No. 6 slot in the draft order, the Jets sit in an interesting position. Should the Titans pass on Mariota and no one trades up for him, the quarterback could fall to their selection. In all likelihood, though, the Jets will have to make a deal with Tennessee to land a much-needed quarterback upgrade.
If the Jets want to move up, they are in a realistic position to do so. A trade with the Jets would presumably be desirable for the Titans, as they could stay in position to select one of the draft’s top six players while also likely netting one or two more significant picks from New York.
When the Washington Redskins traded with the St. Louis Rams up to No. 2 from No. 6 in 2012 to draft Robert Griffin III, Washington sent its second-round selection and two future first-round picks to St. Louis. Although a trade up for No. 2 in this year’s draft is not expected to be quite as expensive, the Titans can use that precedent as a template to command a high-return package.
The Jets might not be willing to pay that price.
"Two teams that want Mariota the most are the Titans and the Jets,” an anonymous personnel executive told Freeman. “But from everything I hear, the Jets aren't planning to move up."
Though the Bears are widely expected to stay put with the No. 7 overall pick and draft a wide receiver or defensive player, it’s not out of the question that they could trade up for Mariota.
According to another anonymous personnel executive quote obtained by Freeman, the Bears' "new coaching regime can't wait to get rid of Jay Cutler." Bleacher Report’s Jason Cole reported earlier this month that the idea of trading Cutler to Tennessee to move up for Mariota was "gaining more and more traction" within the organization.
Having a tradeable quarterback who could potentially be an upgrade for Tennessee, along with a top-10 pick, could make the Bears an enticing trade-down for the Titans if Chicago is willing to sweeten the pot a little more.
That said, the involvement of Cutler in a trade might not help the Bears’ chances.
Cutler played so poorly in 2014 that he got benched for Jimmy Clausen, and he is set to make $16.5 million in 2015. If the Titans believe Mettenberger is their long-term answer, trading for an overpaid and underperforming veteran quarterback would make little sense.
Bleacher Report's Dan Pompei is among those who do not expect the Titans to trade for the Bears’ oft-maligned signal-caller.
St. Louis Rams
Despite acquiring Nick Foles in a quarterback swap with the Philadelphia Eagles earlier this offseason, the Rams have been taking a close look at the draft’s top quarterback prospects. They have had private workouts with both Winston and Mariota, indicating that they have at least considered an effort to add one of them.
It makes sense for the Rams to continue to be in the quarterback market, as they have made no significant investment in Foles’ future. They received two picks from the Eagles higher than the one they gave up in the deal that also sent Sam Bradford to Philadelphia, and Foles is entering the final year of his rookie contract.
Having built a strong nucleus of young talent since the RG3 trade in 2012, the Rams could be better quarterback play away from a serious playoff push. Their roster is well-rounded enough that they could afford to give up a multi-pick package to move up to No. 2 from No. 10.
That said, the Rams have less enticing assets to offer the Titans than any of the other teams potentially in the market to trade up. With no appealing veteran players known to be on the trade block, the Rams would likely have to give up their first- and second-round picks this year, plus multiple future picks, to strike a deal for No. 2.
St. Louis should know as well as any team in the NFL that a trade like that usually works out in favor of the team that acquires the multitude of picks.
In possession of two first-round picks, Nos. 12 and 19 overall, the Browns might have the best ammunition of any team in the NFL to strike a deal for the No. 2 pick.
DraftInsider.net’s Tony Pauline suggested earlier this week that the Browns “are the front-runners and working hardest in the hopes of acquiring the quarterback.” He also wrote that according to a league source, “the Browns hold the most powerful position in the draft and the ability to dictate whether they or another team make the move for Mariota.”
Just last year, the Browns used a first-round pick to select Johnny Manziel. Nonetheless, they appear interested in adding another quarterback to the mix after Manziel proved unreliable in his rookie season. Whether the Browns are willing to pay the price needed to make a deal with the Titans, however, is uncertain.
According to Pauline, the Titans have asked the Browns for both of their first-round picks as well as their second-round pick (No. 43 overall), and Cleveland has declined that request. The Browns “may be willing to part with both first-round picks,” Pauline wrote, “but want to hold onto the second-round choice to draft a much-needed receiver.”
Unless the Browns change their mind on that, they would likely have to give up at least one early-round pick in a future draft to strike a deal with the Titans. For a team that has drafted two first-round quarterbacks in the past three years and still has a number of other needs to address, the cost to trade to No. 2 might prove to be too high.
In his aforementioned article on Mariota, Freeman wrote that the five personnel men he interviewed were “certain” the Browns will not trade up for the Oregon quarterback.
Perhaps the most oft-discussed trade rumor leading up to this year’s draft has been the suggestion that the Chargers could trade Philip Rivers, their five-time Pro Bowl quarterback, to Tennessee to acquire the No. 2 pick and draft Rivers’ replacement.
Not expected to sign an extension with the team this offseason, Rivers is set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2016. It has been suggested by numerous sources, including Rivers’ former teammate and current NFL Media analyst LaDainian Tomlinson, that Rivers could be prepared to move on from the Chargers.
Adding fuel to the fire that the two parties could be ready to part ways, the Chargers have had private workouts with four quarterback prospects—including Mariota—leading up to this year’s draft, according to U-T San Diego’s Michael Gehlken.
Publicly, the Chargers have strongly denied the possibility of trading Rivers. General manager Tom Telesco said earlier this week that "Philip's our quarterback, and the plan is he'll be here for a long, long, long time," according to Gehlken.
That public declaration in itself means little, as the Chargers have no incentive to espouse any doubt in Rivers’ future with the team. That said, Gehlken also reported that the Chargers had “not discussed a Rivers trade at all with Tennessee” as of Thursday, citing a team source.
While it's possible a deal between San Diego and the Titans could come together, it’s probably a long shot. Beyond the question of whether the Chargers have real interest in making a Rivers-for-Mariota deal, it’s questionable whether such a deal would even be the ideal move for the Titans.
One would think Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt would be interested in Rivers. He previously worked with Rivers as San Diego’s offensive coordinator in 2013, and Rivers remains one of the pre-eminent passers in the sport. Yet if the Titans believe enough in Mettenberger to not draft Mariota, they might be more interested in acquiring a multitude of picks than a veteran quarterback.
The Titans would probably not get that multitude of picks from the Chargers in addition to Rivers, and it’s possible they would actually have to send more than the No. 2 pick to San Diego. While Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller and many others believe the Titans would demand more than just Rivers for the No. 2 pick, NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport has reported that the Chargers would want “multiple first-round picks” in return for Rivers.
Philadelphia Eagles
The theory that just won’t die—perhaps only because some NFL writers and Eagles fans won’t let it—is that Philadelphia, whose first offseason with Chip Kelly as personnel director has been full of twists and turns, will ultimately come away from the 2015 draft with Mariota.
As the Eagles have acquired or re-signed three quarterbacks this offseason—Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow—it would appear they are not targeting a quarterback selection in this year’s draft. If we should have learned one thing from this offseason, however, it’s to expect the unexpected with Kelly, who formerly coached Mariota at Oregon, calling the shots in the City of Brotherly Love.
The theory is supported by the belief that Bradford, who has just one year remaining on his contract, could be used as a trade chip. Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio added fuel to that fire this week when he reported “no meaningful talks have occurred” between Bradford and the Eagles on a potential contract extension.
But it's a stretch to suggest that a lack of extension talks means the Eagles are looking to trade Bradford. As Jason Cole noted this week, Bradford wants to play out the 2015 season in an effort to rebuild his value—after missing all of last season with a torn ACL—rather than sign an extension now.
Even if the Eagles do want to trade Bradford for Mariota, that might not be a realistic option. Moving up to No. 2 would take more than the No. 20 overall pick and Bradford, who might not be of interest to the Titans anyway, given his injury history and his 2015 price tag of $12.985 million.
If Kelly is going to make a reunion with Mariota happen, it’s going to take something radical, like the trade rumor brought to light by Mark Eckel of NJ.com on Thursday. According to Eckel, a rumor “making its rounds in NFL personnel meetings” is that the Eagles could trade Bradford to the Browns for the 19th pick and then trade the Nos. 19 and 20 overall picks to the Titans, along with defensive lineman Fletcher Cox and linebacker Mychal Kendricks, for the No. 2 pick.
Don’t hold your breath waiting for that deal to happen. Three-team trades are a rare species in the NFL, and trading Cox—one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL—would be a questionable move for the Eagles in and of itself. Yet the fact that a rumor like that not only exists but has grabbed hold among media outlets is a reflection of the unconventionality and fearlessness Kelly has shown so far in his brief but eventful tenure in Philadelphia.
Possibility No. 3: Titans Draft the Best Non-Quarterback Available
While the Titans are doing everything they can to ensure all attempts to trade up for a quarterback go through them, they could keep the pick and draft someone else.
Though the lack of superstar talent could increasingly compel the Titans to trade the pick for multiple assets, they could have a variety of intriguing non-quarterback options at the top of the draft.
At least five other players could be legitimate options for Tennessee at No. 2 overall.
Leonard Williams
The vast majority of mock drafts that don’t have the Titans selecting Mariota have them taking Williams instead.
Widely considered to be the best overall player in the entire draft, the USC defensive lineman is a perfect fit to play opposite fellow Trojans product Jurrell Casey at defensive end in Tennessee’s 3-4 front.
At 6’5” and 302 pounds with great length and athleticism for his size, Williams is a quick and powerful interior lineman who has the potential to wreak havoc as both an interior pass-rusher and a run defender.
Edge Pass-Rusher (Dante Fowler Jr., Vic Beasley)
If the Titans subscribe to the belief that a pass-rushing outside linebacker is more impactful than a defensive end in a 3-4 defense, they might be more inclined to select one of the draft’s top edge defenders rather than Williams here.
If Titans go this route, the most likely selection would be Florida’s Dante Fowler Jr. A 6’3”, 261-pound edge defender with terrific athleticism and the versatility to play all over a defensive front seven, Fowler could add a potential game-changer to a rotation that also includes Derrick Morgan and offseason addition Brian Orakpo.
Another possible No. 2 pick for the Titans is Clemson’s Vic Beasley. While he is smaller than Fowler at 6’3”, 246 pounds, Beasley is an exceptional athlete who had great production at Clemson and could make an immediate impact rushing the passer from outside.
Three additional edge players in the mix to be early first-round picks are Kentucky’s Alvin “Bud” Dupree, Missouri’s Shane Ray and Nebraska’s Randy Gregory. It would be a huge surprise at this point, however, if the Titans selected any of those players with the second pick.
Wide Receiver (Amari Cooper, Kevin White)
Even with the additions of Harry Douglas earlier this offseason and Hakeem Nicks on Friday, the Titans should still be in the market for another wide receiver
In Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Douglas and Nicks, the Titans have a solid quartet of receiving options, but no one in that group can be considered a true No. 1 receiver. If the Titans plan to put their chips on Mettenberger emerging as a franchise quarterback in 2015, they would be smart to add a premier receiver to that group.
That’s why Alabama’s Amari Cooper and West Virginia’s Kevin White could each draw consideration to be the second overall pick.
Cooper, college football’s Biletnikoff Award winner this past season, combines above-average size (6'1", 211 lbs) and speed with exceptional route-running ability and open-field quickness. White, coming off a breakout senior season, is a big, fast outside receiving weapon who excels at making plays on the ball, even when covered.
The Titans have hosted seven wide receivers—including Cooper, White and Louisville’s DeVante Parker, another potential top-10 pick—for predraft visits, according to SB Nation’s draft visit tracker. That makes it clear the Titans are looking to add another weapon at the position. It’s probably much more likely that the Titans would draft a wideout in a trade-down scenario than at No. 2, but it’s possible nonetheless.
Prediction: Which Possibility Is Most Likely to Happen?
Because Mettenberger gives the Titans a reason not to draft Mariota, and there is no true standout prospect among the non-quarterbacks in the class, trading down does appear to be the most attractive option for Tennessee. If the Titans can work out a deal that nets them several early-round draft picks or other highly valued assets, they will probably do it.
Realistically, though, there is no clear-cut favorite to make a trade among the six teams who could be in play. While each of those teams has enough assets to potentially bring a deal together, there are also reasons to doubt each and every one of those teams actually pulling the trigger on a blockbuster barter.
If no trade materializes, the Titans would be hard-pressed to pass on Mariota. As promising as Mettenberger might be, he remains an unknown, and the Titans cannot bank on having the opportunity to draft a high-level quarterback prospect in 2016. Not drafting Mariota—or Winston, in the surprise instance Mariota goes No. 1—could prove to be a source of regret for the Titans for many years to come.
Even so, the possibility of the Titans using the second pick to draft another top prospect cannot—and should not—be ruled out. While Tennessee has to maximize the value of its pick, players like Williams, Cooper and Fowler all have the skill sets to contribute immediately for Tennessee, which has a need greater than perhaps any other team in the NFL to add impact players to its roster.
Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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