Realistic Draft Trade Possibilities for the New England Patriots

Whenever the time comes to reminisce on the legacy of the Bill Belichick-era New England Patriots, draft-day trades will be an important chapter in the story. 

Not every transaction has been a winner, of course (looking at you, Chad Jackson), but given that the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins were all selected with picks acquired through trades, it's blatantly obvious how important draft-day trades have been to sustaining this window of championship contention.

With nine picks in the 2015 draft, including five between Rounds 2 and 4, the Patriots don't necessarily need to move around.  But this year's class is deeper than it is top-heavy, and considering the numerous needs on New England's roster after a bevy of free-agent defections, one would expect the Patriots to move around, particularly on Day 2 and early Day 3.

I've already highlighted some potential trade partners and outlined transactions that might make sense, but let's step back and take a look at some more general possibilities and positions New England might target.  As I did in the previous piece, I'll be using Chase Stuart's Draft Pick Value Calculator to measure the Approximate Value (AV) a team might be expected to receive on average over the next five seasons.

Trade Pick 32 for Multiple Day 2 Picks

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This is the likeliest trade scenario of all for the Patriots, especially given Nick Caserio's recent comments about the relative uniformity in prospect quality between picks 25 and 40.  New England won't move down simply for the sake of it, but given their prime position as the final pick of Day 1, the Pats figure to receive plenty of bidders seeking to make a big move before the rest of the league regroups before Day 2.

By my count, the Patriots have traded down from their first-round position four times during the Belichick era.  Two of those moves were for later first-round picks (Jerod Mayo in 2008 and Vince Wilfork in 2004), while the other two (2009 and 2013) allowed the Patriots to acquire a bevy of picks between Rounds 2 and 4.

Because New England already has nine selections, the ideal strategy might be to pawn off the 32nd pick for a second-rounder this year and a future first-rounder in the 2016 draft.  Those moves are typically massively profitable, and Belichick has often used these types of transactions to restock his roster with blue-chip talents like Mayo, Wilfork, Devin McCourty and Nate Solder.

Of course, so long as the Patriots remain in championship-or-bust mode, fans will care most about what kind of contributors New England can swipe with its mid-round treasure trove.  Surveying the early-second-round landscape, one team stands out in particular as a juicy potential trade partner.

Trade Down to Falcons' No. 42 Pick for a Guard

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Thomas Dimitroff was in the Patriots organization as the director of college scouting before becoming the Atlanta Falcons' general manager in 2008, and though the two sides haven't done much business since then, the seeds are there for a transaction.  Dimitroff has a reputation as an aggressive personnel manager, primarily stemming from his massive move up the 2011 draft for Julio Jones.

The Jones move looks like a mistake in hindsight given how Atlanta's top-heavy roster has collapsed the past two seasons, but Dimitroff has not backed down from his philosophy.  The Falcons have eight picks in the draft, but only one in each of the first six rounds.  Having just recently crawled out from massive debt in draft capital, it's unclear if Atlanta would want to reallocate more resources toward another move up. 

Still, the Falcons are in desperate need of premier talent, so if a Marcus Peters, Melvin Gordon or even Randy Gregory type were to slip all the way to 32, Atlanta would be a prime landing spot. 

The 41st pick, meanwhile, would offer a more palatable landing spot for the Patriots to select a guard like Laken Tomlinson or A.J. Cann.  NFL Draft Scout currently does not have a single first-round grade on a guard, so while the Pats should have their pick of the litter at No. 32, it might make more sense to acquire more capital while ending up with the same player. 

The Pats might also be able to exploit the league's tendency to overvalue first-round picks.  Stuart's trade calculator suggests that even Atlanta's fifth-round pick would be too much additional compensation for a move down to 41, but the old Jimmy Johnson chart that most teams still use would demand at least the Falcons' fourth-round pick (107), possibly even their third-rounder (73).

Fans might scream out for a cornerback or offensive skill-position difference-maker, but in reality, guard is the one spot where the Patriots cannot currently field a realistic starter.  Fixing the problem while adding more picks to address the other roster depth issues would be a best-of-both-worlds scenario.

Trade Up to Cowboys' No. 27 Pick for Byron Jones

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The Pats have only traded up in the first round twice under Belichick, both times in 2012 to select Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower.  Jones and Hightower have justified that risk by becoming foundational front-seven pieces, and given the state of New England's dilapidated cornerback corps, Belichick could make a similar jump this year if he falls for a particular prospect.

While guard may be the team's biggest need, New England could probably get away with waiting until pick 64 to address the need if it sees a higher-upside corner in the first round.  Of the prospects who could realistically be available, UConn's Byron Jones looks like the best fit because of his versatility, high football IQ and status as a team captain.  

Jones may have worked his way onto the first-round radar because of his combine performance, but it's heinously unfair to label him a workout wonder without real football skills. 

The 6'1", 199-pound Jones possesses the size to play press and the route-recognition awareness to play zone, which will likely be critical as the Pats try to determine what kind of scheme they want to run in 2015.  He's a converted safety who missed time with a shoulder injury in 2014, but everything about Jones projects well to New England's system.

Stuart's calculator suggests the Pats would only need to give up a late-rounder, while Johnson's chart pinpoints New England's fourth-rounder as a more realistic chip. 

The Patriots do have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' second pick of the fourth round due to the Logan Mankins trade, so if the Dallas Cowboys were willing to take the lower selection, it might be worth it for New England to jump other corner-needy teams like the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts for Jones.

Trade Pick No. 96 for Multiple Day 3 Picks

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The Pats will have back-to-back picks at the end of the third round (Nos. 96 and 97), the latter of which is a compensatory pick that cannot be moved.  Depending on how the first two rounds unfold, New England might want to move pick 96 to replenish its Day 3 cargo, especially if it burns a late-round pick in another deal.

New England does have five picks in the final four rounds, including two fourth-rounders and two seventh-rounders, but is missing its fifth-round pick due to the midseason Jonathan Casillas trade with the Buccaneers.  The 101st overall pick, the second selection of Day 3, also looms as a prime trade chip for a move up, down or for a veteran player.

One team to watch as a potential trade partner?  The Baltimore Ravens, who have three compensatory picks on Day 3, two of which are in the fifth round.  Baltimore has a third fifth-rounder (158) from the Haloti Ngata trade with the Detroit Lions; overall, the Ravens are scheduled to pick six times in a 55-pick stretch between 122 and 176.  Thus, the Lions' fifth-rounder looks like a surplus pick that could be available.

As two of the AFC's premier franchises the past half-decade, New England and Baltimore haven't done much recent business.  But Belichick and Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome have plenty of history, which is why I highlighted the Ravens as a team with whom with Pats might do draft-day business.  With Baltimore's significant free-agent defections this spring, expect Newsome to be especially busy on draft day.

Trade Fourth-Rounder for Veteran Front-Seven Help

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Remember how I said that the 101st overall pick could be a prime trade chip?  The Patriots don't necessarily need to turn that into more draft picks, as New England has had a successful track record swapping picks for buy-low veterans like Randy Moss, Wes Welker and LeGarrette Blount.

No one should realistically expect a Moss- or Welker-like impact, but even a niche contributor like Blount would be rather valuable at a thin position.  Jonathan Casillas and Akeem Ayers weren't the catalysts for the Patriots' Super Bowl run, but they added important above-average depth the team could rely upon for a thin front seven.

Casillas and Ayers both subsequently cashed in during free agency, though, so the Pats will need to find new versions for 2015.  Players like Alex Carrington, Karl Klug, Ashlee Palmer, D.J. Williams and Jo-Lonn Dunbar aren't flashy names, but all are capable front-seven veterans who come on inexpensive contracts and could provide important depth as a fourth linebacker or defensive tackle.

That sounds trivial until in-season injuries create an untenable weakness for opposing teams to exploit mercilessly. 

Recall that defensive tackle depth was an issue two years ago, one that became the team's greatest Achilles' heel when Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly both went down to season-ending injuries.  Fans won't care about who's competing with the likes of Chris Jones and Joe Vellano until they're forced into the lineup due to a dearth of other options.

The draft is ultimately about replenishing future pipelines, and the Pats are in a good position to control the board, particularly in the middle rounds.  But given the depth issues at various spots on New England's roster, it might be wise to buy some more immediate insurance.