2015 NFL Paper Trail Mock Draft V3.0

How badly do franchises want to win? It’s a question that’s not as easily answered as it used to be.

Franchises are willing to do almost anything to win, but with the numerous arrests of pro players over the past year, teams will be extra cautious about gambling on prospects with character concerns.

They may even be completely risk-averse and remove such players from their boards altogether.

What we will also see is different standards for different players. Because, like always, the more talented the player, the more forgiving franchises are.

Take Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston. Even with several off-field infractions, he’s still likely to be selected first overall.

Nebraska linebacker/defensive end Randy Gregory tested positive for marijuana at the NFL combine. A probable top-10 pick, Gregory might slide a little, maybe out of the top 10. Or a team could look the other way and select him regardless of the test result.

Meanwhile Florida State cornerback P.J. Williams was arrested on a DUI charge. A possible second-round pick, he could fall to the third day because of his most recent incident or not get drafted at all.

Some teams will likely have already removed Williams and Gregory from their draft boards completely. Other teams will reduce risk by selecting troubled players late in the draft, knowing a team can cut that player at any time with minimal loss. A handful of teams won’t alter a player’s grade despite the transgressions.

Nothing confirms that point better than the Dallas Cowboys signing free-agent defensive end Greg Hardy, even after the details of his domestic violence case went public. Dallas signed Hardy to a contract that protected the franchise if Hardy ran afoul of the law again or if the NFL suspended him.

On Wednesday the NFL did suspend Hardy for 10 games. Dallas’ pre-emptive strike worked. Even though it won’t have Hardy for almost two-thirds of the season, Dallas won’t cut him for the suspension.

After all, the Cowboys want to win championships. And like all teams, Dallas is willing to do almost anything to win. The question is, how far will these franchises go.

This is the third edition of my mock draft. To observe the evolution of my mock drafts, check out v1.0.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – QB Jameis Winston, Florida State

Winston told Michigan coaches Jim Harbaugh and Jedd Fisch on ESPN Draft Academy he didn’t steal crab legs from a Florida Publix; a Publix employee hooked him up (h/t NFL.com). Whether teams believe Winston is another story. Seems like the Buccaneers are buying what Winston said as they select him first overall.

2. Tennessee Titans – QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon

When a franchise says it has a poor man’s version of Great Player X, then it doesn’t have a great player. It sounds like the Titans are pumping up QB Zach Mettenberger to draw trade interest. But if Tennessee holds on to the second pick overall, it’ll take Mariota.

John Raoux/Associated Press

3. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Dante Fowler Jr., Florida

With the top two defenders still available, the Jaguars can’t lose. Jacksonville opts for Fowler because free-agent signee DT Jared Odrick is incoming.

4. Oakland Raiders – DT Leonard Williams, USC

As the old saying goes, offense wins games, defense wins championships. A terrible overall defense gets some much-needed help; passing on a receiver now hopefully pushes a good one down to Oakland’s second round selection (35th overall).

5. Washington Redskins – DE/OLB Shane Ray, Missouri

Bookends come in pairs. Washington had a good set with OLBs Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo. But with Orakpo off to Tennessee, the Redskins select Ray as a replacement.

6. New York Jets – DE/OLB Vic Beasley, Clemson

With a “catch the New England Patriots” approach to the offseason, the Jets nab Beasley to go Tom Brady-hunting.

7. Chicago Bears – DE/OLB Randy Gregory, Nebraska

Can DE Jared Allen adjust to playing outside linebacker in a 3-4? Chicago signed OLB Sam Acho, and DE Willie Young has the right build to play upright (6’4”, 251 lbs). Chicago invests in a backup plan and maybe sets the stage to trade Allen.

8. Atlanta Falcons – WR Amari Cooper, Alabama

No matter how hard I tried, I couldn’t convince myself the Falcons would draft a defender. General manager Thomas Dimitroff isn’t afraid to make a bold move, and if Cooper is still on the board, Dimitroff surprises again.

9. New York Giants – DT Danny Shelton, Washington

This selection remains the same as v1.0:

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Running backs ran through the Giants’ defense as if they had an EZ Pass under their shoulder pads. Shelton should get a badge to go with his jersey and hat as he will be New York’s first line of defense to stop ball carriers.

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10. St. Louis Rams – WR Kevin White, West Virginia

If the Rams are unable to trade up to draft Mariota, they stay put and enhance the receiving corps. Whether it’s QB Nick Foles as the triggerman or the Rams eventually select a passer, he will need a quality outside target to help create space for the tight ends.

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

11. Minnesota Vikings – OT/OG Brandon Scherff, Iowa

Injuries contributed to the Vikings allowing 51 sacks last season. Sherff, a tackle in college that some project to guard in the NFL, would be a welcome addition to the offensive line, especially if he can maintain his versatility at the next level.

12. Cleveland Browns – WR DeVante Parker, Louisville

Signing WRs Brian Hartline and Dwayne Bowe helps a bad receiving corps, but neither is a game changer. With WR Josh Gordon’s future with Cleveland in doubt, the Browns make a move to replace him.

13. New Orleans Saints – CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State

In today’s NFL, having two starting-caliber corners isn’t enough. Signing CB Brandon Browner to play opposite Keenan Lewis helps significantly. But the Saints still need someone to man the slot.

14. Miami Dolphins – CB Jalen Collins, LSU

Free-agent signee CB Brice McCain is a solid addition as a slot corner, but he can’t compete against larger outside receivers. Add Collins to play opposite CB Brent Grimes, and the Dolphins are building a very good secondary.

15. San Francisco 49ers – DE/DT Arik Armstead, Oregon

This selection remains the same as v1.0:

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Retirements and free agency have been brutal by the Bay. But before giving up and just playing nickel all season long, the 49ers try to save their crumbling defensive front seven.

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Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

16. Houston Texans – WR Breshad Perriman, UCF

Is Perriman for real? It's hard to believe the hype when a player’s stock soars due to workouts. But the Texans have the luxury to find out after adding two receivers in free agency. In the long run, wide receivers Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington aren’t good enough to replace Andre Johnson.

17. San Diego Chargers – RB Todd Gurley, Georgia

If lightning doesn’t strike twice, then Gurley won’t have an injury-plagued career like RB Ryan Mathews did with the Chargers.

18. Kansas City Chiefs – DT Malcom Brown, Texas

Though the offensive line allowed 49 sacks last year, it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs selecting a right tackle here with the run defense a significant problem.

19. Cleveland Browns – RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin

Bravo to the new Browns uniforms! The dullest look in the league needed snazzier unis. But if Parker and Gordon are as good as advertised, they would have made even the old duds look good.

20. Philadelphia Eagles – S Landon Collins, Alabama

This selection remains the same as v1.0:

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The secondary makeover (free agent CBs Walter Thurmond and Byron Maxwell signed) is completed by adding the top safety in the draft.

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21. Cincinnati Bengals – DE Alvin "Bud" Dupree, Kentucky

This selection remains the same as v1.0:

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After DT Domata Peko’s three sacks, no one had more than 1.5 sacks. The Bengals finished 2014 with a league-low 20 sacks. The ball-hawking secondary (20 interceptions) carried the defense. The pass rush has to carry their weight next year.

"

22. Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Marcus Peters, Washington

Pittsburgh wants a pass-rusher badly, but losing two defensive backs, including safety Troy Polamalu to retirement, makes the secondary a more pressing need at the moment.

23. Detroit Lions – OT Andrus Peat, Stanford

The O-line’s contribution to the third-ranked passing offense in 2013 was allowing just 23 sacks. The sacks rose to 45 in 2014, slowing the passing game down to 13th. Detroit will go as far as QB Matthew Stafford will lead it, but he has to remain standing.

24. Arizona Cardinals – LB Eli Harold, Virginia

It’s worth a shot to see if OLB LaMarr Woodley has anything left in the tank, but he’s not a long-term solution. Woodley could, however, be a mentor as Harold learns the ropes from the veteran.

25. Carolina Panthers – OT D.J. Humphries, Florida

While OT Michael Oher will man the right side and OT Jonathan Martin provides depth, the Panthers still need an anchor for the blind side. Despite Humphries’ injury history, his talent is impossible to ignore.

26. Baltimore Ravens – WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona State

With WRs Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones both headed to the West Coast, the Ravens need an heir to WR Steve Smith. Smith still defies his biological clock (35 years old), but how much longer can he continue to do so?

ELI LUCERO/Associated Press

27. Dallas Cowboys – CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest

On average Dallas allowed 304 yards passing in two playoff games. It got pass rush help in free agency by signing DE Greg Hardy. But when the pass rush can’t affect the quarterback, the Cowboys need guys who can cover.

28. Denver Broncos – OT T.J. Clemmings, Pittsburgh

This selection remains the same as v1.0:

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It was very apparent by the end of the season that QB Peyton Manning can’t carry the Broncos offense all the time. Clemmings is a natural fit at right tackle and could start immediately.

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29. Indianapolis Colts – DT Eddie Goldman, Florida State

This selection remains the same as v1.0:

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If championships really are built in the offseason, then the Colts could be favorites to reach Super Bowl 50. A great free-agent haul gets complemented by Goldman; Indianapolis won’t make it to San Francisco in February if they can’t stop the run in the playoffs.

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30. Green Bay Packers – CB Byron Jones, Connecticut

CB Tramon Williams led the Packers in passes defended and tied for the team lead in interceptions. It’s not going to be easy for Green Bay to replace him, but it’ll give Jones a shot to do so.

31. New Orleans Saints –WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma

The Saints traded both leading receivers from last year (TE Jimmy Graham and WR Kenny Stills) and are in need of receiver help. New Orleans will take its chances with Green-Beckham because it doesn’t know how much WR Marques Colston has left.

32. New England Patriots – OT/OG La’el Collins, LSU

It feels like the chances are greater that the Patriots will trade this pick than use it. Though New England’s priorities are cornerback and defensive tackle, left tackle Nate Solder’s uneven play and expiring contract have the Patriots preparing in case Solder won’t be on the team in 2016.

Out of the First Round

Buffalo Bills: With a top-five defense of no concern, Buffalo made upgrading the offense a priority. Even after adding a receiver, running back and tight end, Buffalo still has room to improve the offensive line as OG Richie Incognito is a question mark after a year out of the league.

Seattle Seahawks: They spent the 31st overall selection on acquiring the best tight end in the NFC, Jimmy Graham. That won't make up for having an average, at best, receiving corps. Receiver is a deep position this year, and Seattle should come away from this draft with one selected early.

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