Arsenal Must Handle Expectation Against Better-Than-You-Think Aston Villa
You know the old saying "be careful what you wish for"? Well, it applies perfectly to Arsenal as the north London club prepares for a second-straight FA Cup final.
The Gunners secured their consecutive final berth after struggling to a 2-1 win over championship outfit Reading. More on that performance later.
Some Arsenal fans may have felt like they'd received a two-for-one when Aston Villa overcame Liverpool in the other semi-final. On the surface, it seems like the Gunners have avoided the tougher draw.
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This surface reading is understandable but very, very dangerous. It's understandable because Villa are currently 15th in the Premier League, a mere four points from safety. The Villains have also played a game more than the three teams directly below them competing to avoid the drop, per the league's official site.
There's also the small matter of Arsenal comfortably beating the Birmingham club twice this season. The Gunners won 3-0 away from home back in September before thrashing Villa 5-0 at the Emirates Stadium to begin February.
So there you go—easier said than done. Start clearing a space in the Arsenal trophy cabinet.
Except don't do that. Only do that if you're interested in angering, rather than just tempting, fate. Only do that if you're stupid enough to ignore two things: Arsenal's struggles to impress when they're expected to win and Villa's quality.
Examining the latter first, it's more accurate to say Villa's resurgent quality. Simply put, the Midlands club boasts a squad much more talented than the league position suggests. Much more.
The key to that squad actually playing to its ability is the fitness and form of two top-quality players. Bullish centre-forward Christian Benteke and centre-back Ron Vlaar are the biggest threats to the Gunners retaining the cup.
Villa are simply a different team altogether when both are available and at their best. It stands to reason considering Benteke has the strength, ability to dominate in the air, pace and assured finishing to walk into any top squad in Europe.
Similarly, Vlaar is a smart powerhouse at the back. He reads the game well, shifts his powerful frame quickly and is a precise tackler.
With a supreme talent at each end of the spine of their team, Villa are more than capable of beating any top side in the Premier League, including Arsenal.
Speaking of the spine, it's stronger still whenever Fabian Delph is at the heart of midfield. He was against Liverpool, where the 25-year-old bossed the Reds with direct, box-to-box runs and clever passing.
Of course, Liverpool didn't possess a ball-winner as tough and cagey as Francis Coquelin. Nor does the Anfield club's contingent of midfielders control possession as well as Santi Cazorla, Mesut Ozil and Aaron Ramsey.
But even with better balance and more skilled options, the Gunners will have to be at their best to keep Delph quiet on Cup final day.
The same theme recurs no matter what angle you study this match from. How about the angle that says Villa's ample pace from wide areas has given Arsenal fits in the past and is almost certain to do so again?
All three of Gabriel Agbonlahor, Andreas Weimann and Charles N'Zogbia have caused the Gunners problems. If Arsenal aren't alert and disciplined guarding against swift counter-attacks, they'll be picked apart on the break.
It would be a repeat of how Monaco left the Emirates Stadium with a 3-1 win in the UEFA Champions League last 16. That was another supposedly favourable draw for Arsenal, an opponent manager Arsene Wenger's team were widely expected to beat and beat well.
The problem is that's usually where trouble starts for Wenger's Gunners, particularly this vintage of Wenger's Gunners. It started that way against Reading, just as it did in last season's semi-final against another Championship side, Wigan Athletic.
On that day, Arsenal were taken to extra time and needed penalties to eventually settle things. It was extra time again when the Gunners met Reading, only this time Alexis Sanchez being the grateful recipient of a goalkeeping howler from Adam Federici removed the need to win from the spot.
Speaking on the BBC's Match of the Day coverage of the game, former Gunners striker Ian Wright bemoaned Arsenal's tendency to be sluggish against teams they're expected to beat (h/t Squawka's Pete Sharland): “What is more upsetting is when Arsenal are playing these teams they start so slowly. It is disappointing to see them play like that.”
You only have to think back to last season's cup final win over Hull City to see Wright has more than a point. Despite facing opposition they were expected to brush aside without too much fuss, the Gunners fell 2-0 down inside 10 minutes against the Tigers.
As they've so often done in recent seasons, Wenger's men flirted with disaster. Arsenal did more than inch toward danger when lower-league opponents Bradford City and Blackburn Rovers knocked them out of both domestic cups during the 2012/13 season.
Yet the struggles against Wigan, Hull and Reading—along with the failure against Monaco—show the Gunners haven't grasped the lesson. They haven't worked out how to handle expectation and turn on the style when this particular pressure is on.
Going back to that eventually thrilling day against Hull at the end of last season, the similarities to this year's final are more than eerie. Arsenal entered that game also having twice beaten their final opponent comfortably in the league, 2-0 and 3-0.
Of course, none of that prevented the Gunners defence from creaking en route to surrendering a pair of early goals.
If you want to know what's at the root of Arsenal's malaise when they play teams they're expected to beat, it's an impetuous streak ingrained in the psyche of the club and this team.
It's a nervous impatience borne from suffering the wrath of an unforgiving fanbase always tetchy thanks to a prolonged barren period and years spent as their rivals' favourite target. Then there's a demanding media that often seems to hold the Gunners to a higher standard than the rest.
That standard usually says Arsenal are apparently only allowed to win one way, notably in style and with room to spare. Judged on these terms by those both inside and outside the club, it's little wonder Arsenal have trouble managing expectations.
In this sense, it may have been better for Arsenal to be facing a final date with Liverpool. The prospect of meeting a team, with (generally) better players and a more challenging playing style than Villa, would likely have pushed the Gunners to raise their game.
That's how it went when Arsenal beat Liverpool 4-1 at the Emirates. It went the same way when the Gunners won 2-0 at Manchester City, a day when there was little expectation of an Arsenal win.
That day was also one where the Gunners played knowing there's more than one way to win. Arsenal demonstrated steady and consistent control at City but were from their free-flowing norm. That was rather the point.
This squad has gotten better at winning without style points. For all the struggles against Wigan, Hull and Reading, remember Arsenal still won each of those games.
This isn't a call demanding nothing short of a 3-5 goal triumph at Wembley in late May. Instead, it's a reminder to avoid the sort of issues that could lead to the ultimate letdown.
That means avoiding the nerves and impatience that create the type of defensive gaffes evident against both Monaco and Reading. It also means not becoming frustrated just because the team hasn't scored inside the first 20 minutes, an emotion Arsenal definitely gave into during the home leg against Monaco.
It means not giving into the impetuous streak that makes a team lose focus and surrender the initiative the way the Gunners did at the start of the second half against Reading.
Racing out of the blocks to impress the judges isn't the right way, nor is being overly cautious to avoid more potential embarrassment.
Wenger needs the best squad he's had at his disposal in a decade to play with calmness and controlled authority. It's the only way to let the talent show.
But if you think that'll be easy against Villa, remember, you probably said the same thing about Wigan, Hull, Reading and Monaco.
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