Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls: 1st-Round Analysis and Predictions
The NBA's Eastern Conference is light on quality first-round playoff matchups, but the opening-round date between the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks is an exception.
Chicago is a title contender looking to prove its regular-season roller coaster is in the past. Milwaukee is a burgeoning rebuilding project that, in all honesty, didn't clinch a playoff berth by design.
While the disparity in status could make for a lopsided victory in the Bulls' favor, the Bucks are scrappy. They play defense and grind out victories. If there's a threat within the East's bottom three playoff seeds, it's them.
Expect this series to unfold accordingly.
Head-to-Head Record: Chicago 3-1
| Nov. 5 | 95-86 Bulls | Bulls held Bucks to 30.2 percent shooting in second half |
| Jan. 10 | 95-87 Bulls | Pau Gasol went for for 46 points and 18 rebounds |
| Feb. 23 | 87-71 Bulls | Tony Snell (yes, him) led all scorers with 20 points |
| April 1 | 95-91 Bucks | Bucks outscored Bulls 23-10 on second-chance opportunities |
Series Schedule
| 1 | April 18 | 7 p.m. ET | Chicago, IL | ESPN |
| 2 | April 20 | 8 p.m. ET | Chicago, IL | TNT |
| 3 | April 23 | 8 p.m. ET | Milwaukee, WI | NBA TV |
| 4 | April 25 | 5:30 p.m ET | Milwaukee, WI | TNT |
| 5 | April 27 | TBD | Chicago, IL | TBD |
| 6 | April 30 | TBD | Milwaukee, WI | TBD |
| 7 | May 2 | TBD | Chicago, IL | TNT |
Key Season Stats
| Bulls | 27-14 | 23-18 | 104.7 (10) | 101.5 (11) | 3.3 (9) |
| Bucks | 23-18 | 18-23 | 100.5 (25) | 99.3 (2) | 1.2 (14) |
Bulls' X-Factor: Derrick Rose
A mere five games into his latest return, Derrick Rose is more X-factor than superstar. He hasn't breathed postseason air since 2012, and his health is still in doubt.
"It's nothing serious at all," Rose said after sitting out the second half of Chicago's final regular-season tilt, via the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson. "I'm just being cautious. I'm used to knee injuries and my knees being sore."
Every bump, bruise and precaution, however innocent, is a big deal when it comes to Rose. The Bulls need him—especially against the Bucks.
Statistically speaking, point guard is their worst position, according to 82games.com. Neither Kirk Hinrich nor Aaron Brooks has successfully offset Rose's topsy-turvy campaign, leaving the rotation in flux.
The Bucks, meanwhile, are the NBA's best team when it comes to defending point guards, according to HoopsStats.com. If they're able to contain Rose—who is still trying to improve his shot selection and subsequently iffy shooting percentages—the Bulls' job will be that much harder.
If Rose is healthy and able to play without a stringent minutes cap, they'll be a better bet to upend Milwaukee and keep their season alive.
Bucks' X-Factor: Ersan Ilyasova
Defensively, the Bucks match up well against the Bulls. They have the length and grit to rein in Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah as well as the lateral quickness to contend with Jimmy Butler and Rose on the perimeter.
What they don't have is a consistent offensive attack. Despite spreading the floor with smaller, quicker five-man combinations, they don't shoot nearly enough threes and lack a true post presence.
That's where Ilysova comes in handy. He spaces the floor with his three-point stroke (38.9 percent clip) and, while struggling this season, has the back-to-the-basket chops necessary to bully down low with the big boys.
All of 27 years old, Ilyasova is also the old head. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Michael Carter-Williams—the Bucks' three leading scorers—are new to the playoffs. With two postseason appearances under his belt, Ilyasova needs to act as a steadying offensive presence that allays the burden Milwaukee's defense will bear.
PER Comparison
Three Pressing Questions
How Healthy Are the Bulls?
Injury bugs have hit the Bulls hard all season.
In addition to Rose's missing 31 games, Taj Gibson, Butler and Noah all amassed at least 15 absences. Rose himself is fresh off meniscus surgery, Noah missed the season finale with a sore hamstring and Gibson needed a cortisone shot for his shoulder to make it through that same game, according to Johnson.
As it stands, the preferred starting five of Mike Dunleavy, Rose, Butler, Gasol and Noah has made just 21 appearances together. The Bulls are a staunch 16-5 through those games, and that lineup is an offensive machine, but the relatively small sample size (353 minutes) is concerning.
There's also no predicting playing limits for Rose, Noah and perhaps Gibson. Head coach Tom Thibodeau trimmed their minutes whenever possible during the regular season, but the playoffs are a different beast.
Going up against a younger, more versatile Bucks squad demands all hands on deck at all times. And if they're not, look for this matchup to be far more interesting than the 3-1 season series suggests.
Will the Bucks Ever Be the Home Team?
Less than 100 miles separates the BMO Harris Bradley Center in Milwaukee from the United Center in Chicago, according to MapQuest.
This is not ideal for the Bucks. As ESPN.com's Nick Friedell pointed out:
Crowd support may be a fickle X-factor, but it matters. When you're light on playoff experience and already without home-court advantage, as the Bucks are, it matters.
Barely a .500 home team right now, the last thing these young Bucks need is a hostile environment on their turf.
Do the Bulls Have Enough Shooting?
Although this question can be applied to the Bucks as well, it's more important to the Bulls, who have to crack Milwaukee's first-rate defense, which has wreaked havoc from the inside out.
Inside the three-point line, Chicago is set. Rose can still get to the rim on occasion, Gasol is a beast in the post and Butler's forays into the lane are an offensive staple. But if the Bucks solve all the interior equations, the Bulls don't have much in the way of contingency plans. SB Nation's Mike Prada explained:
"The Bulls don't have much perimeter shooting unless Mirotic is at power forward. (Sensing a theme? You should be). They may be in the top 10 in the league in three-point percentage, but teams don't defend them that way. Only Mike Dunleavy and Mirotic really scare opponents from behind the line, and in Mirotic's case, it's more because he's willing to fire away at any time than his actual three-point percentage. Butler has improved, while Aaron Brooks and Tony Snell can hit open threes. But teams don't freak out when they take those shots.
"
Like any defensive force with a pulse, the Bucks are going to coerce the Bulls into launching jumpers—shots they have to make if their offense is to stand up against Milwaukee's fortress.
Why the Bulls Will Win
Put bluntly, on paper and in the standings, they're the better team.
For all the roller coaster-ing they've done, the Bulls still rank in the top 11 of offensive and defensive efficiency. Only the San Antonio Spurs, Golden State Warriors, Atlanta Hawks and Portland Trail Blazers can say the same. That's legitimate company—company they've joined while facing obstacles at every turn.
It doesn't hurt that the Bucks are enduring something of a free fall, either. They prioritized the big picture over immediate winning at the trade deadline by flipping Brandon Knight for Carter-Williams and are 11-18 since.
At their core, the Bucks aren't even a playoff entity. They're a higher-end lottery squad with a good defense, an unsightly offense and a vast array of youth ill-equipped to handle the star-dominated push-and-pull of postseason hoops.
Truth be told, this could wind up being a warm-up for the Bulls. They don't need to play their best basketball. They just need to be who they've been all season. That should be enough.
Why the Bucks Will Win
Four fragments: Really. Freaking. Good. Defense.
Say what you must about the Bucks' serially stagnant offense, but their points-prevention prowess isn't to be taken lightly. Only the Warriors have a better defense.
Each of the six other top-seven units—Memphis Grizzlies, Washington Wizards, Hawks, Spurs, Rockets and Warriors—also project as genuine first-round threats at minimum. Most are actual title contenders. That says a whole lot about the Bucks' potential.
In many ways, they're like the 2012-13 Bulls: impregnable defense, broken offense. And while obviously flawed, those Bulls scrapped and clawed their way into the second round of their playoff bracket.
Combine Milwaukee's defensive intensity with Chicago's questionable health bill, and there's a chance, however slight, that the Bucks could do more than just make this a series worth watching.
Prediction: Bulls in 6
There's a lot to consider here.
The Bulls are banged up and nowhere near where their roster suggests they should be. The Bucks are an upstart pest with the defensive ceiling of a contender and the offensive floor of the Philadelphia 76ers.
Who prevails in a matchup like this? The better team.
So, the Bulls.
Getting past the Bucks shouldn't be especially easy. Again, their defense is reminiscent of those Bulls factions that made improbable regular-season and playoff runs. But talent is the key here.
Even when they're not good, the Bulls are still good. They have experience on their side and, most importantly, the depth to survive one round in the event they're not completely healthy.
None of this takes away from the Bucks' season. They're not supposed to be here, in the playoffs, dwelling among contenders and powerhouses and franchises miles ahead of themselves. Yet, thanks to their defense, here they are, raw and promising, fully capable of putting up a fight.
Just not one good enough to overthrow the been-here, done-that, ready-to-do-it-again Bulls.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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