New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors: 1st-Round Analysis, Predictions
The stat sheet points to a first-round slaughter when Stephen Curry leads the West's top-seeded Golden State Warriors against Anthony Davis and the eighth-seeded New Orleans Pelicans.
But there's a reason the NBA playoffs are dubbed the second season. Every team starts from scratch, as resumes are tossed out the window for these frenetic races to four wins.
The Pelicans are postseason participants for the first time since 2011, thanks in no small part to Davis' meteoric rise. The two-time All-Star paced the club in points, rebounds and blocks while vaulting up the NBA's superstar ladder.
The Warriors are back in the playoffs for the third straight season after piling up a league-best and franchise-record 67 wins. Curry's steady hand has guided this team to the top, but this is a deep group that has grown even more potent under first-year coach Steve Kerr and his staff.
A pesky, pressure-free New Orleans squad could make for a tricky hurdle to start Golden State's title-hopeful run.
Head-to-Head Record: Golden State 3-1
| Dec. 4 | 112-85 Warriors | Warriors outscored Pelicans 30-9 from three |
| Dec. 14 | 128-122 (OT) Warriors | Splash Brothers combined for 63 points |
| Mar. 20 | 112-96 Warriors | Harrison Barnes led all scores with 22 points |
| Apr. 7 | 103-100 Pelicans | Davis tallied 29 points, 10 boards, four blocks |
Series Schedule
| 1 | Apr. 18 | 3:30 p.m. ET | Oakland, CA | ABC |
| 2 | Apr. 20 | 10:30 p.m. ET | Oakland, CA | TNT |
| 3 | Apr. 23 | 9:30 p.m. ET | New Orleans, LA | TNT |
| 4 | Apr. 25 | 8 p.m. ET | New Orleans, LA | ESPN |
| 5* | Apr. 28 | TBD | Oakland, CA | TBD |
| 6* | May 1 | TBD | New Orleans, LA | TBD |
| 7* | May 3 | TBD | Oakland, CA | TBD |
Key Season Stats
| Warriors | 39-2 | 28-13 | 109.7 (2) | 98.2 (2) | +11.4 (1) |
| Pelicans | 28-13 | 17-24 | 105.4 (9) | 104.7 (22) | +0.7 (15) |
Warriors X-Factor: Draymond Green
Earlier this season, Warriors coach Steve Kerr called Draymond Green the team's "heart and soul," per Bay Area News Group's Diamond Leung. No matter your definition of a true X-factor, it feels like that should qualify.
The fiery Green sets the emotional tone for the Warriors. "We need that brashness that he has," Kerr told Grantland's Jonathan Abrams. "We have a very quiet team. We're confident, but he gives us an edge that I love."
Facing a team the Warriors are expected to steamroll, they'll need Green's intensity to help take the right mental approach into the series.
But there are basketball reasons behind this selection, too.
The Pelicans, like any of the Warriors' playoff opponents, will sell out on stopping the Splash Brothers, Curry and Klay Thompson. As a screen-setter and distributor, Green needs to create shots for his snipers. He'll also have to convert the open looks that come his way and seamlessly transition through different defensive assignments as he has all season.
Pelicans X-Factor: Tyreke Evans
Any member of New Orleans' ball-dominant perimeter trio (Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon) could be labeled as an X-factor. All three can run boiling hot or ice cold, and each will need a big series to help the Pelicans score an upset.
But Evans stands out above the others for a couple of reasons.
For one, he had the most productive year of the three. He paced the trio in points, boards and field-goal percentage while sitting just behind Holiday in assists. Evans can change the game in a lot of different ways, and his slippery dribble penetrations will be key in collapsing Golden State's top-ranked defense.
But New Orleans also needs him to pose some kind of threat as a shooter. The Dubs are going to overwhelm Davis with defensive attention, and Evans—a career 27.8 percent three-point shooter—could see his man provide the most help underneath. He shouldn't have a hard time finding open looks; whether he actually converts them could help determine how close this series will be.
Evans' versatility and athleticism allows coach Monty Williams to deploy him at multiple positions. Evans has to defend well at every spot, which means chasing Curry and Thompson off the perimeter, limiting Harrison Barnes' looks from the corners and keeping Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and Leandro Barbosa out of the lane.
PER Comparison
Three Pressing Questions
1. Can New Orleans Get the Ball Out of Stephen Curry's Hands?
Stopping the Warriors starts with containing Curry's production. But that's been on the scouting report for years, and he's doing more damage than ever.
His per-36-minute marks hit career levels nearly across the board: 26.2 points, 8.5 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 2.2 steals. He also posted personal bests in player efficiency rating (28.0) and true shooting percentage (63.8).
Kerr has given Curry a fluorescent green light to attack, and the Dubs will take as many quick-strike scores as they can get before the defense is set. They also run the sharpshooter around a series of screens, either as a pick-and-roll ball-handler or catch-and-shoot marksman.
The Pelicans have to find a way to limit his touches. For as much praise as Golden State's depth receives, this offense loses 14.1 points per 100 possessions when Curry isn't playing. Slowing him wouldn't guarantee New Orleans a series win, but it would at least give the Pelicans a puncher's chance at the upset.
2. How Will the Warriors Handle Anthony Davis?
"The Brow" blitzed the Warriors both times he played them for averages of 29.5 points, 12.5 boards and 3.5 blocks. That has less to do with this matchup than it does the fact that Davis, as Kevin Durant put it last summer, is the NBA's "next in line," via Pelicans.com's Jim Eichenhofer.
Clearly, that line is moving.
Davis' 30.8 PER was the highest ever recorded by a player not named Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan or LeBron James. Davis was also the league's only player to finish among the top 10 in points, rebounds and blocks.
Teams don't stop him; they merely hope to limit the damage he does.
As ESPN.com's Tom Haberstroh noted, Davis' impact on the Pelicans was unrivaled:
"As crazy as it sounds, Davis' incredible box score stats probably underrate his impact on the New Orleans Pelicans' season. According to Inpredictable.com -- a groundbreaking sports analytics website that tracks how much an NBA player's play-ending actions move the needle of his team's chances of winning -- Davis is the league-leader in win probability added (WPA) with 8.43 wins.
And he's not just outperforming the rest of his peers. They're not even in the same stratosphere as Davis. The next highest player is Kyle Korver adding 5.19 wins to the Atlanta Hawks' bottom line. Davis has generated almost twice as many wins as the next most impactful player.
"
So, what will the Dubs do with this soaring superstar?
Davis' size presents problems for Green, and he's too quick for Andrew Bogut to keep pace. Will the Warriors throw an extra defender Davis' way on every catch, or will they let him get his numbers while focusing on New Orleans' role players? Either way might put Golden State in an uncomfortable situation.
3. How Much Can Jrue Holiday Provide?
In other words, how healthy is the former All-Star? He enters postseason play having made only three appearances after missing nearly three months with a lower leg injury.
He's the top playmaker on this team, which is big considering someone needs to feed Davis and find the Pelicans' three-point shooters. But New Orleans needs Holiday's scoring too, so he has to balance both duties.
He's literally getting his legs back under him—he averaged fewer than 19 minutes in his final three contests—and that's concerning given the caliber of defensive assignment he'll handle. Curry has torched the Pelicans from three this season. As Grantland's Zach Lowe noted, Holiday could be the key in preventing that from happening again:
The less help Holiday needs with Curry, the better chance New Orleans has of disrupting Golden State's potent passing game.
Why the Warriors Will Win
Because they just completed one of the greatest seasons of all time.
The Warriors' 67 wins are tied for the sixth-most in NBA history. They're just the eighth team to ever post a double-digit point differential (plus-10.1). Of the previous seven clubs to accomplish this feat, six went on to win the title—and the seventh fell to one of those six (the Milwaukee Bucks, who lost to the Los Angeles Lakers in the 1972 Western Conference Finals).
Golden State has more than enough offensive firepower to exploit a New Orleans defense that has leaked uncontrollably on the perimeter. When Curry and Klay Thompson aren't ripping the net from deep, the Dubs can pick apart the Pelicans with timely off-ball cuts and pinpoint passes.
As good as Davis is, it's going to take more than a solo act to dismantle a defense this dominant. The Warriors can put a pair of Defensive Player of the Year candidates in his path—Green and Bogut—and a slew of athletic, long-limbed defenders in the passing lanes.
Golden State boasts a deeper, more talented roster than New Orleans. On paper, this looks like a pretty one-sided series.
Why the Pelicans Will Win
Because Anthony Davis is a freak of nature.
He can change the game on both sides of the ball. He's a comfortable, capable scorer from the mid-range to the low post. If he gets a step on his defender, there's no way to stop him from reaching his target.
At the opposite end, he's a do-it-all force. He erases shots as both a primary and help defender. His length and athleticism pay obvious dividends on the glass. He can body up centers on the low block or keep pace with smaller players on the perimeter.
If the Pelicans can pull this off, it's going to start with Davis flooding the stat sheet. But Holiday has to have a good floor game, Evans needs to be discerning with his drives, Omer Asik has to build a wall around the Warriors' basket and guys like Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Quincy Pondexter must make the most of their three-point looks.
A lot of things have to fall in the Pelicans' favor. But with a miracle-worker like Davis on their side, it's possible for them to shock the basketball world.
Prediction: Warriors in 5
It's tempting to call for the sweep. That's not a knock on New Orleans, but rather a reflection of Golden State's greatness.
Still, a gentleman's sweep seems more likely. Davis is going to have his moments of basketball brilliance, and one of them will be strong enough to secure a victory.
If the Warriors roll at home—as they have all season—they might ease off of the gas a bit. As ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss noted, Golden State didn't exactly take New Orleans too seriously the last time these teams met:
Add a playoff-starved New Orleans crowd to the mix, and it has a good chance to steal a win. But this is the Warriors' series to lose, and it's incredibly difficult to see that happening.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
