Machida vs. Rockhold: A Complete Guide to UFC on Fox 15
UFC on Fox 15 is a stacked event headlined by a potential title eliminator at 185 pounds.
No. 2-ranked contender Lyoto Machida takes on No. 4-ranked Luke Rockhold in the night's final bout, while No. 1-ranked Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza faces Chris Camozzi in the co-main event. Jacare was originally slated to fight No. 6-ranked Yoel Romero, but an injury forced Romero out of action.
Those are not the only ranked fighters on the card. Top 10 featherweights Cub Swanson and Max Holloway battle it out on the main card, and Top 15 strawweights Felice Herrig and Paige VanZant will open the action.
The preliminary action is stacked as well. There is a featured preliminary bout between Jim Miller and Beneil Dariush.
This is a fantastic card, and it will be free on Fox Saturday night.
Which prospects take the next step up the ladder? Which fighters will make their case for a title shot later in 2015?
Read on to find out in your complete guide to UFC on Fox 15.
Eddie Gordon (8-2) vs. Chris Dempsey (10-2)
1 of 11
Division: Middleweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Eddie Gordon won The Ultimate Fighter 19 and looked to be a promising 185-pound prospect, but Josh Samman quickly derailed him at UFC 181. Gordon will try to rebound against Chris Dempsey.
Dempsey is 0-1 in the Octagon after suffering a knockout loss to Ilir Latifi.
This should be a matchup that Gordon can shine in. He is the superior fighter. The Serra-Longo product has all the tools to join the Top 15 in this division, and his trek to that status starts Saturday.
With his heavy hands, he will start this card out with a TKO over Dempsey.
Prediction: Gordon defeats Dempsey by TKO in the second round.
Diego Brandao (22-10) vs. Jimy Hettes (11-2)
2 of 11
Division: Featherweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
This fight was supposed to take place at UFC 183, but Jimy Hettes fainted backstage prior to their bout. Hettes was last in the Octagon in a losing effort against Dennis Bermudez, and Diego Brandao was last seen wilting under Conor McGregor.
This is a fantastic featherweight fight.
Brandao should hold the edge. Hettes is a great grappler, but Brandao can equal him on the mat. If Brandao gets overaggressive, then Hettes can capitalize to finish the fight. On the feet, however, it will be all Brandao.
I'm expecting Brandao to be sharp. He will oust Hettes in the first five minutes.
Prediction: Brandao defeats Hettes by TKO in the first round.
George Sullivan (16-3, 1 NC) vs. Tim Means (23-6-1)
3 of 11
Division: Welterweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
George Sullivan has quietly put together a solid run. Some may not even know he is 2-0 in the UFC during his eight-fight win streak. He has a tough draw in Tim Means in the final Fight Pass prelim.
Means has won three straight. He has looked spectacular as of late.
Sullivan can make this a competitive fight, but Means' nasty striking inside will ultimately be too much for the New Jersey native. Means lives for those gritty exchanges, and his elbows and knees are devastating. Means touches up Sullivan to make it four straight.
After another victory, a bigger fight should be on the horizon for Means.
Prediction: Means defeats Sullivan by TKO in the first round.
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Takeya Mizugaki (20-8-2) vs. Aljamain Sterling (10-0)
4 of 11
Division: Bantamweight
Where to watch: Fox
No. 6 Takeya Mizugaki opens up the Fox preliminary bouts against undefeated Aljamain Sterling. This will be a great fight to show us if Mizugaki is still a top contender, or if Sterling can break through to the next level.
It will be the latter.
Sterling is a top prospect in this division, and each time out, he looks better and better. Serra-Longo is a great camp that builds championship-caliber prospects.
Mizugaki's style plays right into the hands of Sterling. Mizugaki overly commits, often leaving himself open to crisp counters or takedowns. Sterling can pick what he wants to do to Mizugaki when that happens. He won't pummel Mizugaki as easily as Dominick Cruz did, but Sterling will win this going away.
Prediction: Sterling defeats Mizugaki by decision.
Corey Anderson (5-0) vs. Gian Villante (12-5)
5 of 11
Division: Light Heavyweight
Where to watch: Fox
This light heavyweight matchup is all about Corey Anderson's development. Gian Villante should not pose a serious threat in this fight.
Anderson can control this fight with his wrestling if need be, but ultimately, he has to start showing more to his game.
Villante has some power in his hands. Unfortunately for him, it quickly fades. He does not have the cardio to last long against someone who grinds like Anderson. If he doesn't catch Anderson early, it will be another loss on his record.
Anderson will get the finish, but it will come in the second half of the fight when he can take advantage of a tired Villante.
Prediction: Anderson defeats Villante via submission in the second round.
Ovince Saint Preux (17-6) vs. Patrick Cummins (7-1)
6 of 11
Division: Light Heavyweight
Where to watch: Fox
No. 8 Ovince Saint Preux and No. 13 Patrick Cummins meet on the undercard. A win Saturday should elevate the winner into a top-five-caliber fight in this division.
Saint Preux is coming off a big win over former champion Shogun Rua. Cummins has put together three straight victories since his debut loss to Daniel Cormier.
If Saint Preux can stop Cummins' takedowns, then this is his fight. His striking is getting better, and he has excellent power. Cummins is still getting comfortable with his strikes. If Saint Preux cannot stop the inevitable takedown attempts, then he is in for a long night.
That is the story of the fight.
Cummins' top game is strong. He is a good wrestler. Saint Preux won't be able to do much from the bottom, and that is where he will be for 15 minutes. Cummins grinds out another win to move into the Top 10 of the division.
Prediction: Cummins defeats Saint Preux by decision.
Jim Miller (24-5, 1 NC) vs. Beneil Dariush (10-1)
7 of 11
Division: Lightweight
Where to watch: Fox
The last time we saw No. 12-ranked Miller was last summer in a defeat to Donald Cerrone. He returns to face one of the hottest lightweights in the division, Dariush.
Dariush has three straight victories and has been one of the most impressive fighters in the division. He has good kicks and a top-notch ground game.
The ground game is what makes this fight exciting. A scramble on the canvas between Miller and Dariush should be exciting to watch. On the feet, a slight edge goes to Dariush.
Dariush will use Miller to propel himself into the Top 15 after this fight. Miller will struggle to find success on his feet, and he won't be able to take Dariush down. That leaves his path to victory narrow. Dariush is a cerebral fighter. He won't make the big mistake.
It goes the distance, but Dariush scores more in each of the three rounds to rout Miller.
Prediction: Dariush defeats Miller by decision.
Felice Herrig (10-5) vs. Paige VanZant (4-1)
8 of 11
Division: Strawweight
Where to watch: Fox
The opening bout of the main card features No. 8-ranked Herrig and No. 12-ranked VanZant. After Maryna Moroz's upset of Joanne Calderwood, this fight now may have title implications.
Prior to VanZant's UFC debut, she had been a raw prospect. Her talents were not outstanding by any stretch. But in those 18-plus months between fights, she improved dramatically. She was a completely different fighter for her UFC debut. Saturday's fight will test her improvements once more.
Herrig also improved, but her development was less dramatic and on display weekly during The Ultimate Fighter.
VanZant's maturation makes this a difficult fight to pick. Was her previous outing an aberration, or will we see more progression against Herrig?
I'll take VanZant, but I am not confident in the pick. If she can win the grappling exchanges, then she will take the fight. Herrig has improved on the ground, but she is less of a threat off her back. VanZant's pressure wins the fight.
This battle takes Fight of the Night.
Prediction: VanZant defeats Herrig by decision.
Cub Swanson (21-6) vs. Max Holloway (12-3)
9 of 11
Division: Featherweight
Where to watch: Fox
This stacked card continues on when No. 5 Cub Swanson meets No. 9 Max Holloway.
Swanson put together six wins but was stopped by Frankie Edgar before he could claim a title shot. Holloway is on a five-fight win streak after dropping a decision to Conor McGregor in the summer of 2013.
Holloway is greatly improved, but this is not a good matchup for him. Swanson is better everywhere.
Holloway will have to establish his jab to stick Swanson on the outside and then attack the body. He is a high-output striker who loves to attack the body. That could pay off for Holloway. Swanson loves to stand and exchange, and if he is continually on the outside, it will be difficult to score points.
Swanson won't be stuck there all night. He will not only find success inside of Holloway's range, but he will take Holloway down in this fight. Expect a complete performance from Swanson.
Holloway is always tough and difficult to finish. Swanson will have to take this on points, and the wrestling will be the difference in a closer-than-expected fight.
Prediction: Swanson defeats Holloway by decision.
Ronaldo Souza (21-3, 1 NC) vs. Chris Camozzi (19-9)
10 of 11
Division: Middleweight
Where to watch: Fox
All credit in the world to Chris Camozzi for taking this fight, but we have already seen what happens in this matchup.
Jacare defeated Camozzi with an arm triangle in his UFC debut in less than four minutes. I would not be surprised if Jacare won even more quickly in the co-main event this Saturday.
Jacare is No. 1 in the division. A win over Romero may have given him the next title shot, but with Machida and Rockhold in the main event, I am not sure a win over Camozzi will do the same for him.
The Brazilian takes down Camozzi and finishes with a submission just like in the first fight.
Prediction: Souza defeats Camozzi via submission in the first round.
Lyoto Machida (22-5) vs. Luke Rockhold (13-2)
11 of 11
Division: Middleweight
Where to watch: Fox
The main event may be a title eliminator now that Souza will lack an opponent in the Top 10, but that is far from confirmed. Regardless, a win for either fighter will be the best win for a contender in this division.
No. 2-ranked Machida rebounded from his loss to Chris Weidman with a swift victory over CB Dollaway last December. No. 4-ranked Rockhold is on a three-fight win streak after his KO loss to Vitor Belfort.
This is one of the most difficult fights to pick in recent memory. These are elite fighters who are well-rounded everywhere and two of the brightest as well.
Machida loves to counter, but Rockhold won't be overly aggressive to open up big holes on the feet. Both men have excellent takedown defense at over 70 percent, according to FightMetric. This fight will be closely contested and will be decided in the championship rounds.
That is where Rockhold will take over. His size will tire Machida just enough so that he can win the final two frames. It will be a methodical, back-and-forth fight. With MMA judging, who knows what will actually happen, but I think Rockhold gets the nod.
Prediction: Rockhold defeats Machida by decision.
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