San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Clippers: 1st-Round Analysis and Predictions
The third-seeded Los Angeles Clippers and No. 6 San Antonio Spurs are set to square off in the first round of the 2015 NBA playoffs.
San Antonio finished the campaign winning 21 of its final 25 outings, yet Gregg Popovich's team managed only a sixth-place standing after falling to the New Orleans Pelicans on the last day of the regular season.
But such is life in the Western Conference, so the defending champions' road to their first-ever back-to-back titles is a daunting one, to say the least.
Stop No. 1 takes the Spurs to the Staples Center, where Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan await. Strap in, folks. Welcome to the playoffs.
Head-to-Head Record: Tied 2-2
| Nov. 10 | 89-85 Spurs | Leonard 26 PTS, 10 REB; Spurs 2-19 3PT |
| Dec. 22 | 125-118 Spurs | Three players on both teams score at least 20 PTS |
| Jan. 31 | 105-85 Clippers | Griffin 31 PTS, 13 REB; Parker held to 5 PTS |
| Feb. 19 | 119-115 Clippers | Jordan 26 PTS, 18 REB; Duncan 30 PTS |
Series Schedule
| 1 | April 19; 10:30 p.m. ET | Los Angeles, CA | TNT |
| 2 | April 22; 10:30 p.m. ET | Los Angeles, CA | TNT |
| 3 | April 24; 9:30 p.m. ET | San Antonio, TX | ESPN |
| 4 | April 26; 3:30 p.m. ET | San Antonio, TX | ABC |
| 5* | Tuesday, April 28 | Los Angeles, CA | TBD |
| 6* | Thursday, April 30 | San Antonio, TX | TBD |
| 7* | Saturday, May 2 | Los Angeles, CA | TBD |
Key Season Stats
| Clippers | 30-11 | 26-15 | 109.8 (1) | 103.0 (15) |
| Spurs | 33-8 | 22-19 | 106.2 (7) | 99.6 (3) |
Spurs' X-Factor: Boris Diaw
Two of San Antonio's biggest objectives against the Clippers will be to terrorize the Los Angeles bench and contain Griffin. Boris Diaw plays a critical part in both goals.
A versatile 6'8" power forward, Diaw tallied 8.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.9 assists per outing during the regular season. Spencer Hawes will likely have trouble stopping Diaw's ability to score near the rim, distribute from the high post and find open spots around the perimeter.
But San Antonio will need his defense in the worst way. Without Tiago Splitter, the Spurs' frontcourt rotation is thrown off, and defending a stretch 4 with Tim Duncan or Aron Baynes is not an optimal scenario.
Clippers' X-Factor: J.J. Redick
J.J. Redick is often the forgotten man of the Clippers' elite offensive attack.
The ninth-year pro quietly assembled a career-best season in 2014-15, pouring in 16.4 points per game on a 43.7 percent three-point clip. His range is the key to Los Angeles' offense retaining proper spacing, because the opposition cannot simply pack the paint.
Redick is also the master of quick-strike offense, particularly for a non-superstar. The shooting guard averaged 6.5 points in the first quarter, good enough for 12th-best in the league, per NBA.com.
If the Clippers jump on San Antonio right away and build an all-important early lead, it's a safe bet Redick contributed the hot start.
PER Comparison
Three Pressing Questions/Strategic Keys:
Does San Antonio Get the Good Bench or the Bad Bench?
For most of the 2014-15 campaign, San Antonio's backups were tallying decent numbers. However, the eye test offered a slightly different narrative.
Diaw was less aggressive and couldn't match his previous level of production, which was a significant reason San Antonio waltzed through most of the 2014 postseason. Plus, Patty Mills and Marco Belinelli both missed extended periods of action, and the Manu Ginobili-led second unit's three-point numbers—its calling card last year—dipped.
The Spurs' reserves have certainly stepped up their contributions over the last 50 days, but the reigning champions need that to continue. Otherwise, the franchise's pursuit for consecutive titles will be delayed yet again.
How Much Will Tiago Splitter's Absence Matter?
On April 5, Popovich said the starting center's calf injury wasn't serious, but he'd be out for a while, per Dan McCarney of the San Antonio Express-News. However, Pop's projected timeline for a return has since passed.
Nevertheless, Splitter is a heady screen-and-roll piece and a tremendously valuable defensive asset for San Antonio because he offers a stout interior presence alongside Duncan.
The Brazilian's awareness would also be a vital component of stopping Griffin's knack for finding Jordan at the rim, because Baynes can get caught looking for the ball instead of sticking on his man.
If Splitter is healthy, the Spurs' potentially thin frontcourt would receive a significant boost. Otherwise, they'll have a noticeable void that must be filled.
Will "Hack-a-Jordan" Cost Los Angeles a Victory?
It's bound to happen. Popovich hasn't shied away from busting out the "Hack-a-Player" strategy, and Jordan presents a perfect target.
Despite a form that's really not terrible, the left-hander managed a meager 39.7 percent mark during the regular season.
The biggest question remains, though: Will it work? The Spurs and Clippers will assuredly battle to the finish at least once—likely more—and Pop will employ the strategy he dislikes.
San Antonio stole a win from the Houston Rockets on April 10 by intentionally fouling Josh Smith, who made just 12 of 26 free throws. Will Jordan cost Los Angeles a victory, too?
Why the Spurs Will Win: Kawhi Leonard
If you haven't heard, this Kawhi Leonard fella has basically been unstoppable lately. This quiet 23-year-old kid earned the 2014 NBA Finals MVP, yet he's still overlooked around the league. But his on-court play screams elite, particularly on one end.
Per Basketball-Reference.com, Leonard posted an NBA-best 96.4 defensive rating, locking down opponents every night. In this series, Gregg Popovich will likely have his soft-spoken star match up on Paul.
The point guard is the player who cranks the Clippers' offensive engine, but they struggle if he's contained. Leonard is capable of neutralizing CP3, something he's proved in previous matchups.
If Leonard asserts his defensive dominance from the outset, Los Angeles will struggle to overcome the Spurs. If he also starts shredding the net—Leonard averaged nearly 20 points per outing after Feb. 27—well, pack your bags, Clips.
Why the Clippers Will Win: Blake Griffin
Griffin forewent the politically correct answer when asked about a potential opening-round matchup with San Antonio. Per Melissa Rohlin of the Los Angeles Times:
"You probably never want to play the Spurs in the first round if you have a choice," Griffin said. "The Spurs are playing their best basketball, like they normally tend to do."
Fortunately for the Clippers, however, Griffin has fared quite well opposite San Antonio. The power forward's 25.3 points per meeting was his fourth-highest mark against any team this season. Griffin added 9.7 rebounds and 5.7 assists for good measure.
Should Paul struggle, Griffin can spark Los Angeles by capitalizing on his stretch 4 prowess, displaying decent inside-out passing ability and creating open jumpers for Redick.
But most importantly, a superstar-like performance from Griffin would minimize the Clippers' lack of a productive bench, the team's most glaring negative. Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford and Hawes can't match San Antonio's second unit for seven games.
Los Angeles needs Griffin to excel. Without him, the Clippers' championship aspirations will die in Round 1.
Prediction: San Antonio in six
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