Setting the Price Tag for NBA's Pending Volatile Free-Agent Stocks
The NBA's free-agent signing period won't get underway until July, but with a regular season full of performances to pore over, it's time to start assessing how much cash prospective money-makers will be able to rake in this summer.
Whether it's restricted free agents like Tobias Harris and Brandon Knight or unrestricted veterans like Rajon Rondo and Greg Monroe, there's a no shortage of non-max-contract names who figure to draw attention on the open market.
Although surefire max candidates like LaMarcus Aldridge, Jimmy Butler, Marc Gasol, Kawhi Leonard and Wesley Matthews will draw plenty of attention, players with more volatile free-agent stocks will garner consideration from an array of needy teams.
Using 2014-15 performance and league-wide positional needs as a way to gauge preliminary interest, we've assembled sliding salary scales for some of the league's most divisive impending free agents.
DeMarre Carroll, SF, Atlanta Hawks
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Age: 28
Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
Projected Average Annual Salary Range: $5-7 million
With the spotlight shining bright on the Eastern Conference's top-seeded Atlanta Hawks, DeMarre Carroll has used the 2014-15 season as his platform to break out.
Previously a promising rotational cog with the Utah Jazz, Carroll's emerged as a legitimate starter as he's flanked Kyle Korver on the wing for the past two seasons.
Averaging a career-high 12.7 points on 39.6 percent shooting (also a career-best), Carroll has proved he's more than a defensive specialist who should be deployed in spurts.
While Carroll is earning a modest $2.5 million in the final year of a two-year, $5 million deal that's starting to resemble one of the league's biggest bargains, the New York Post's Marc Berman reports Carroll is due for a sizable raise.
Per Berman, Carroll "could be had for a starting salary in the $5 million range," with the New York Knicks emerging as intriguing suitors for the 28-year-old:
"According to a source, Fisher is high on Carroll, who had 16 points, four rebounds and three assists on Monday, and the defensive approach he brings to the court.
“Most definitely,’’ Carroll said when asked if the Knicks would be a high consideration.“When guys talk about playing in certain places — they talk about Madison Square Garden and Staples Center. Those two places. New York has a lot to offer but at the end of the season, I’ll let my agent do that. We’ll keep our options and hopefully it will work out for the best.’’
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Atlanta projects to have the cap space necessary to meet such demands, but Carroll's versatile services should incite a bidding war.
Ed Davis, PF, Los Angeles Lakers
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Age: 25
Free-Agent Type: Player option worth $1.1 million
Projected Average Annual Salary Range: $6-9 million
Someone needs to step up and pay Ed Davis.
He was criminally undervalued last summer, which allowed the Los Angeles Lakers to come in and scoop him up at the veteran's minimum.
However, Davis retained the right to opt out of $1.1 million guaranteed for 2015-16 and pursue a long-term deal.
Bet on that flexibility coming in handy.
In just 23.2 minutes per game this season, Davis has tallied a career-high 7.5 boards and 1.2 blocks, with his per-36 numbers pointing to a potentially game-changing impact in a larger role.
When his playing time is set to per-36-minute standards, his rate-adjusted numbers inflate to 12.9 points and 11.7 rebounds per game on 60.7 percent shooting.
His offensive game is limited, sure, but in a league that has embraced the pick-and-roll to such a substantial degree, Davis will always be able to feast on lobs and second-chance opportunities at the rim.
Tobias Harris, SF, Orlando Magic
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Age: 22
Free-Agent Type: Restricted
Projected Average Annual Salary Range: $11-15 million
Tobias Harris developed into a more prominent scoring option during his second full season with the Orlando Magic, but mystery still shrouds his utmost potential.
Orlando's third offensive wheel behind Nikola Vucevic and Victor Oladipo, Harris averaged a career-high 17.1 points to go with 6.3 boards and a steal.
But the biggest development revolved around his improved three-point stroke. Not only did Harris attempt 3.5 triples per game (up from 2.1 last season), but he also nailed a respectable 36.4 percent of them.
However, Harris is still very much a sub-40 percent shooter from mid-range, and the Magic were substantially better on defense when he was off the floor.
Nevertheless, Orlando general manager Rob Hennigan is intent on keeping his combo-forward in Florida for the long haul.
"Magic GM Rob Hennigan says the club 'intends' to bring back F Tobias Harris—a restricted free agent—'no matter what' the cost this summer," the Orlando Sentinel's Brian Schmitz wrote. "At $15 mill per year? Seeing is believing."
The Magic retain the right to match any offers Harris receives this summer, and should they choose to do so, they'll be paying for the promise of future gains—not past performance.
Reggie Jackson, PG, Detroit Pistons
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Age: 24
Free-Agent Type: Restricted
Projected Average Annual Salary Range: $10-14 million
Like Tobias Harris with the Orlando Magic, Reggie Jackson figures to enter free agency with a solid market for his services and a generous raise on the horizon.
According to a November report from Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, Jackson is staring at a potential $10 million bump in average annual salary.
"Every night, executives examine Jackson, and his offer sheet possibilities are climbing into the $13 million to $14 million range," Wojnarowski wrote. "As one Eastern Conference executive told Yahoo Sports: 'He’s a bigger Eric Bledsoe – and probably better.'"
But if one team is shelling out that cash, expect it to be the Pistons.
At least, that's where all signs are pointing after Stan Van Gundy addressed reporters following Jackson's acquisition at the trade deadline.
"We wouldn't have made the move we did if we didn't feel ready to make it a long-term commitment. There's no guarantees. He's a (restricted free agent). We know we can keep him through next year no matter what he does, but we feel good about making a long-term commitment to him and hopefully he'll feel real comfortable making a long-term commitment here and we'll get it done.
We've got a chance to put together a really solid young core and continue to develop them. You've got to have some patience, but I'm not all that patient, so hopefully it will come together sooner. But you do see a window there and it's not a short window. It's not a two-or three-year window.
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Jackson's shooting a career-high 35 percent from three while dropping what would amount to a career-best 17.4 points during his abbreviated opening act with the Pistons, but it remains to be seen if and how he will mesh with a shoot-first operator like Brandon Jennings.
Brandon Knight, PG, Phoenix Suns
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Age: 23
Free-Agent Type: Restricted
Projected Average Annual Salary Range: $9-12 million
Here's where things get interesting.
The Phoenix Suns retain the right to match offers for Brandon Knight this summer, and the pressure will be mounting after they shipped out the Los Angeles Lakers' top-five protected pick, Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic in a flurry of moves at the trade deadline.
But how much is Knight worth as a complement to Eric Bledsoe, whom Phoenix signed to a five-year, $70 million deal before the season?
Apparently quite a bit.
"Knight is still young, just now turned 23 years old (this spring), and yet he has more starting experience than anyone on the Suns roster," Dave King wrote at Bright Side of the Sun. "He's played both PG and SG, and is long enough to defend all along the perimeter."
An improving three-point shooter who's capable of creating off the bounce or as a spot-up shooter beyond the arc, Knight could return as a solid value for the Suns.
If Knight isn't signed to a substantial offer sheet, it will be fascinating to see how the Suns approach his potential return. With point guard the league's deepest position, Phoenix would immediately find itself in a position of negotiating strength.
But given all the Suns parted with to acquire him, it would come as a sizable shock if they let Knight walk at the end of the day.
Jeremy Lin, PG, Los Angeles Lakers
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Age: 26
Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
Projected Average Annual Salary Range: $3-6 million
Jeremy Lin was never the apple of the Los Angeles Lakers' eye. Rather, Lin was the pricey cost Los Angeles had to pay in order to acquire the Houston Rockets' lottery-protected 2015 first-round pick.
And after failing to jibe with head coach Byron Scott, it's difficult to envision Lin returning to the Purple and Gold.
"I'm not too worried about the years or a number what I'm getting paid," Lin said, according to the Los Angeles Times''Eric Pincus. "I want to find a good place and hopefully the best place I can fit in."
If that's the case, Lin may find a one-year prove-it deal to be in his best interest.
Not only would such a pact allow Lin to atone for a season littered with ups and downs, but it also would give him a chance to reset his market value with a cap spike looming in 2016.
Contenders searching for an offensive spark plug off the bench could do worse than agreeing to terms with Lin on a low-risk, high-reward deal.
Greg Monroe, PF, Detroit Pistons
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Age: 24
Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
Projected Average Annual Salary Range: $14-16 million
Greg Monroe bet the house on his ability to produce in a contract year, and that wager turned out to be a strong long-term play.
After accepting the Pistons' one-year qualifying offer that will lead to unrestricted free-agent status this summer, Monroe has joined Anthony Davis, Pau Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge, Zach Randolph, Nikola Vucevic, DeMarcus Cousins and Dwight Howard as the only players averaging at least 15 points and 10 rebounds this season.
With his stock surging, expect interested parties to reveal themselves rather quickly once free agency opens.
For now, the New York Knicks appear to be throwing their hat in the ring, with the Pistons "absolutely" remaining a possibility, according to Monroe's agent, per Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press.
"Maybe the worst kept secret in the NBA is that Phil Jackson plans to pursue Detroit Pistons forward Greg Monroe in free agency this summer," the New York Daily News' Frank Isola wrote. "In fact, one league executive called it 'about as close to a done deal as you can get.'"
It's far too early to declare the Monroe sweepstakes over, but if preliminary reports are any indication, Monroe should have no shortage of teams to choose from.
Rajon Rondo, PG, Dallas Mavericks
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Age: 29
Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
Projected Average Annual Salary Range: $10-12 million
The biggest enigma of them all.
Rajon Rondo not only plays a ball-dominant style, but he's also approaching 30 years old and plays at the league's most well-endowed position.
However, that doesn't figure to stop point guard-needy teams like the Los Angeles Lakers from making serious runs at the two-time assist champion.
"Assuming the Lakers stay in win-soon mode, it is a safe bet that they will go hard after the two top point guards on the market, with Bryant’s pal Rajon Rondo at the head of the list and Goran Dragic behind him," Sporting News' Sean Deveney wrote.
Since the Dallas Mavericks are 4.6 points better per 100 possessions with Rondo off the floor and neutral with Devin Harris manning the point, Mark Cuban shouldn't be champing at the bit to bring Rondo back at a valuation comparable to what the desperate Lakers would pay.
Rondo can still have tremendous value to a future employer, but he needs to land with a squad that's comfortable handing him the keys to the offense.
All statistics are current as of April 14 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com, unless noted otherwise.
