Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for New York Jets' Top 3 Picks
NFL teams don't always go against what the experts think will happen, but when they do, it often throws a wrench in the plans of another team.
Things can unfold much differently than expected, which is why every team has to be ready to make a pick in any situation. The player you want isn't always the player who's available; that being said, sometimes, another team's decision can open up a path to a player who was previously thought to be unattainable at a specific spot.
The opportunities for dramatic shake-ups are limited to only five picks before the New York Jets go on the clock at No. 6 overall, but as the draft goes on, new general manager Mike Maccagnan could find himself in precarious positions he wasn't expecting to find himself in.
Here's a look at what the Jets should do in any of those situations, as well as some situations they can hold out hope for in the 2015 NFL draft.
Round 1, Pick 6: Best-Case Scenario
1 of 6
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
There are plenty of pass-rushers who could help the Jets' defense in the first round, but the Jets are crazy to think that any of them will get them over the hump and back into the playoffs, competing for a spot in the Super Bowl. The only position that will bring them that level of success is the quarterback position.
And with the extreme likelihood that Florida State's Jameis Winston will be off the board with the first overall pick, the Jets are in do-or-die mode for Oregon's Marcus Mariota. Bleacher Report's Jason Cole reports that the Jets are ready to move on from 2013 second-round pick Geno Smith, and with a rare opportunity to grab one of the draft's top quarterbacks, the Jets would be foolish to pass it up.
The question about Mariota is whether he can grasp an NFL offense, where the reads and concepts will be much more complicated than the ones he ran at Oregon, where he was asked to do very little in the way of reading defenses and going through his progressions.
The Jets have offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, though, who should help the transition and has plenty of experience building an offense around his quarterback's strengths.
Round 1, Pick 6: Worst-Case Scenario
2 of 6
Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
It's pretty hard to come up with a worst-case scenario for the sixth overall pick; after all, the Jets have their pick of all but five prospects in this year's class. Their first choice is probably Marcus Mariota, but if he's off the board, they may want a pass-rusher in the form of an outside linebacker like Florida's Dante Fowler Jr. or Clemson's Vic Beasley.
But what if those two are off the board, too? That's when the Jets may have to look at someone like Missouri's Shane Ray, who may not be a perfect fit in their defense, and consider the possibilities.
Ray is a little undersized to rush the passer against offensive tackles at only 6'3" and 245 pounds, but he could still add some muscle to his frame and become a more stout edge-setter in the process. He's also spent a majority of his career as a 4-3 right defensive end, lining up with his hand in the dirt, so any chance of his fitting as an outside linebacker in the Jets' 3-4 would be a projection.
That being said, he has highly coachable traits with the get-off speed to cause havoc in the backfield, and he will be a pick in the top half of the first round regardless. It would be a disappointment if he were the pick at No. 6, though.
Round 2, Pick 37: Best-Case Scenario
3 of 6
Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia
Assuming the best-case scenario unfolds in the first round, the Jets can use their second-round pick to address the position that would have been their worst-case scenario in the first round. That would mean using their second-rounder on an outside linebacker, which is arguably their second-greatest need aside from a franchise signal-caller.
Virginia's Eli Harold played in a multiple defense at college, which will prepare him well for the road ahead of him in Todd Bowles' defense. That being said, NFL.com's Lance Zierlein says Harold's burst and ability to bend the corner give him the potential to "become a quality pass-rusher from either outside linebacker spot in a 3-4."
Harold's production has been average, with 29.5 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks over the past two years, but he has coachable traits, drawing comparisons to Detroit Lions defensive end Ezekiel Ansah (via Dane Brugler of CBSSports.com) and Miami Dolphins defensive end Olivier Vernon (via Lance Zierlein of NFL.com).
At 6'3" and 247 pounds, Harold is a little light for the outside linebacker spot, but he has a long frame and could still add some mass. With a year or two in an NFL training program, he could be the perfect size for a 3-4 outside linebacker.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Round 2, Pick 37: Worst-Case Scenario
4 of 6
Clive Walford, TE, Miami
Any worst-case scenario that involves drafting a 6'4", 251-pound, versatile tight end is not such a bad worst-case scenario. That being said, there are other prospects who should be higher on the Jets' board if they are looking for such a tight end, such as Minnesota's Maxx Williams.
Walford is a little more athletic than Williams, as evidenced by the fact that NFL.com's Lance Zierlein compared Walford to Indianapolis Colts tight end Dwayne Allen and compared Williams to former New York Giants/New Orleans Saints/Carolina Panthers tight end Jeremy Shockey.
The Jets could use an Allen kind of tight end, one who can line up all over the field and create mismatches, and Zierlein adds that Walford has been improving in the blocking game, as well.
Jace Amaro and Jeff Cumberland are still on the roster, but with Cumberland entering a contract year and Amaro needing a strong second year to show he belongs in the NFL, the Jets could do worse than to draft another tight end early in the second round.
Round 3, Pick 70: Best-Case Scenario
5 of 6
Tre' Jackson, OG, Florida State
The Jets signed former Seattle Seahawks guard James Carpenter, they re-signed veteran guard Willie Colon and they still have young guards Brian Winters and Oday Aboushi on the roster.
But despite all those names and all those investments, they have long-term question marks at guard. Colon was brought back on another one-year deal, Winters struggled in both his first and second years and tore his ACL in Week 6 of the 2014 season and while Aboushi played better down the stretch, he had some forgettable performances along the way (second start versus Buffalo Bills).
Florida State's Tre' Jackson could come in and immediately start for the Jets at right guard. At 6'4" and 330 pounds, Jackson is every bit as powerful and hard to move as his frame would suggest, and he is a force in the running game.
NFL.com's Lance Zierlein talks about Jackson's troubles with footwork and attributes them to poor conditioning; if he can get in shape, he could develop into a well-rounded interior lineman for years to come.
Round 3, Pick 70: Worst-Case Scenario
6 of 6
Kurtis Drummond, FS, Michigan State
The Jets do not appear to need a safety after using a first-round pick on Calvin Pryor last year and handing Marcus Gilchrist a four-year, $22 million contract this offseason.
That being said, their vision for the secondary seems a little odd. Pryor will return to his natural position as the strong safety after spending last year out of position at free safety, while Gilchrist will play free safety deep in coverage despite it being outside of his skill set to do so.
It may not be too long before the Jets need a safety, unless Pryor continues to build off his rookie year and Gilchrist nestles neatly into his new spot. Michigan State's Kurtis Drummond would be a more solid pick at the end of the third round, but his versatility and wide range of skills could make him a fit at either spot.
That being said, NFL.com's Lance Zierlein has concerns over whether Drummond has a true position:
"Drummond is a bag of mismatched parts. He has the ball skills and closing burst of a starting NFL free safety, but his instincts and tackling could scare teams away from viewing him as a single-high center fielder. He's not physical enough to play around the line of scrimmage, so his draft position will ultimately rest on how teams weigh his ball skills against his instincts.
"
If Bowles thinks he can mold the ball of clay into a work of art, Drummond will be worth a pick in the third round.
Unless otherwise noted, all scouting combine information and draft notes provided by NFL.com and CBSSports.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
