UFC on Fox 15 Preliminary Card Predictions
The UFC is extremely busy in 2015, and that hectic schedule continues this weekend in New Jersey. On Saturday, UFC on Fox 15 will go down with a stacked card from top to bottom.
The card sees Lyoto Machida and Luke Rockhold lock horns in a potential top contender match. The winner could fight the winner of Chris Weidman vs. Vitor Belfort next for the title.
Before that, we have the preliminary card. We look to build on a strong showing in Poland, where I ran a 7-1 record, likely my best of the year.
With that, here are the preliminary card predictions for UFC on Fox 15.
2015 Riley's Record: 44-23
Last Event: UFC Fight Night 64 (7-1)
Eddie Gordon vs. Chris Dempsey
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Kicking things off are the middleweights, as The Ultimate Fighter 19 winner Eddie Gordon looks to get back in the win column against Chris Dempsey.
Dempsey is a wrestler who depends on the clinch and takedowns to control fights. When he gets fights down, he has good ground-and-pound and strong chokes, though he can be exploited on the feet with his limited striking.
He entered the UFC on an eight-fight winning streak, filling in for Tom Lawlor on late notice against Ilir Latifi. In that bout, Dempsey quickly lost to the Swede via knockout, which means this sophomore fight with Gordon is a must-win situation.
Gordon is a well-rounded physical brute, as the Serra-Longo rep has powerful striking and big takedowns. His game revolves around his power, as everything he does everything with explosiveness.
Gordon came to prominence on TUF 19, when he won the entire tournament, including the finals against Dhiego Lima. However, Josh Samman brought all of that momentum to a screeching halt with a brutal head kick.
Gordon is an important prospect for the UFC because of his success on TUF, so he's being set up for success here. He should finish Dempsey and jump back into the win column.
Prediction: Gordon def. Dempsey via TKO
Diego Brandao vs. Jimy Hettes
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Next up are the featherweights, as TUF 14 winner Diego Brandao looks to get back into the win column against judoka Jimy Hettes. This is a rescheduled bout from UFC 183, when the fight was called off minutes before they met because Hettes passed out backstage.
Hettes is a grappler, and there is no secret about that. His game plan is to close the distance, put you on your back, slam your head with ground-and-pound and find a way to finish you. That's been his blueprint thus far.
He has used that method in his UFC career to good success. Despite setbacks to Marcus Brimage and contender Dennis Bermudez, Hettes dominated Nam Phan while earning submission victories over Alex Caceres and Robert Whiteford.
As for Brandao, the Brazilian has failed to capitalize on being the winner of TUF, as he has been inconsistent in his UFC career thus far. The Greg Jackson disciple is a power puncher with jiu-jitsu who aims to knock out folks with every punch.
Since submitting Bermudez to win the TUF title in the finale, Brandao has gone just 3-3. He was able to knock off Joey Gambino, Pablo Garza and Daniel Pineda (who are not in the UFC anymore) but was decisioned by Darren Elkins and brutally knocked out by both Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor.
The UFC is setting Brandao up for success here, so this is his fight to lose. Hettes is not especially strong on the feet, which is where Brandao will expose him, as the American will be unable to ground the Brazilian.
Prediction: Brandao def. Hettes via TKO
George Sullivan vs. Tim Means
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The welterweights will throw down in the cage next, as George Sullivan looks to continue his UFC hot streak against fan favorite Tim Means.
Known as "The Dirty Bird," Means has a cult following due to his fun fighting style and his constant search for a brutal, violent finish in a fight. He is primarily a striker, possessing strong leg kicks, good straight punches and the length to make it all work.
Means is in his second stint with the UFC and is 3-1 since coming back to the company. He is currently riding a three-fight surge, besting Hernani Perpetuo, Marcio Alexandre and Dhiego Lima in impressive showings.
As for Sullivan, he is similarly a striker with good size for a welterweight at 6'0". He is strong too, as the Kurt Pellegrino disciple has the ability to end a bout with just one strike.
His UFC stint thus far has been successful. The New Jersey-based fighter debuted with an impressive decision over Mike Rhodes before he knocked out Igor Araujo in his sophomore outing.
This has early Fight of the Night potential, as both men like to brawl on the feet. Sullivan has more tools to win this fight, which should lead to him snagging a decision in a fun one.
Prediction: Sullivan def. Means via decision
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Takeya Mizugaki vs. Aljamain Sterling
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Moving forward, we have the bantamweights, as Japan's Takeya Mizugaki looks to stop the incredible momentum of top UFC prospect Aljamain Sterling.
Mizugaki is a striker who long ago couldn't put together consecutive wins for the life of him. However, the technical kickboxer is a top bantamweight, as showcased by his strong strength of schedule and success rate.
His last fight was his first loss in a while, when a returning Dominick Cruz brutalized him. That loss reversed a five-fight win streak, where he earned decisions over Francisco Rivera, Nam Phan, Erik Perez and Bryan Caraway.
Then there's Sterling, a well-rounded wrestler with great quickness, explosiveness and technical skills. His striking is coming along nicely, which plays in well with his reach and range.
He is undefeated at 10-0, which includes two wins in the UFC. The Serra-Longo Fight Team member ran a decision over Cody Gibson in his debut, before knocking Hugo Viana silly in his latest offering.
Mizugaki is a huge test for Sterling, as the Japanese fighter is a Top 10 bantamweight in the UFC right now. However, Sterling's wrestling and striking combo is a tough matchup for most, which should lead to another victory here.
Prediction: Sterling def. Mizugaki via decision
Corey Anderson vs. Gian Villante
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Next up are the light heavyweights, as TUF 19 winner Corey Anderson takes on Strikeforce veteran Gian Villante.
The owner of possible the greatest nickname in MMA, "Beastin' 25/8" Anderson is a power wrestler with great size, strength and athleticism. His striking is coming along nicely, which goes well in unison with his power wrestling base.
He has been putting in work with Frankie Edgar and Co., which could be the reason for his rapid improvement. This is seen in his 2-0 UFC run thus far, where he has finished Matt van Buren and dominated Justin Jones to a decision.
Then there's Villante, a striker with good athleticism in his own right. He is a former football player with great physical and natural tools, which has helped his success in MMA at this point.
The knockout artist has shuffled wins and losses since coming to the UFC. He has taken wins over Cody Donovan and Sean O'Connell but suffered setbacks to Ovince Saint Preux and Fabio Maldonado to even his UFC record out.
Villante needs to keep this fight upright, but the aggressive wrestling style of Anderson will not lend itself well to Villante's style. Expect a dominant performance by Anderson, who mixes it up and earns a convincing decision from the judges.
Prediction: Anderson def. Villante via decision
Ovince Saint Preux vs. Patrick Cummins
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We stick with the light heavyweight division next, as the most famous coffee grinder Patrick Cummins looks to continue his run up the ranks against Ovince Saint Preux, a former college football player and Strikeforce vet.
Saint Preux is athletic and has a well-rounded skill set. He is explosive with his striking and takedowns and has underrated submission ability.
Since coming to the UFC from Strikeforce, Saint Preux has been successful with a 5-1 record. Other than a loss to Ryan Bader, he has scored a knockout over Mauricio Rua, a kimura win over Ryan Jimmo and a Von Flue choke over Nikita Krylov.
Then there's Cummins, a power wrestler who has gone from unknown barista to incredible asset of the light heavyweight division. He closes the distance well and shoots takedowns proficiently, holding guys down and beating them up.
He opened his UFC career on late notice against Daniel Cormier in a losing effort but has quickly turned things around. He is riding a three-fight winning streak over Roger Narvaez, Kyle Kingsbury and Antonio Carlos Jr., showing he does in fact belong in the big leagues.
This is a good matchup and should be a close one. Cummins has strong wrestling when he is aggressive, so he should be able to ride out Saint Preux for an upset.
Prediction: Cummins def. Saint Preux via decision
Jim Miller vs. Beneil Dariush
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Capping off the prelims are the lightweights, as Jim Miller and Beneil Dariush collide in a high-stakes bout.
Miller is a longtime UFC veteran with a good, well-rounded skill set. He's a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has great boxing skills, which explains his great longevity in the UFC.
He is 2-1 in his last three and has stuck around the top of the division for a while. Despite a loss to Donald Cerrone in his most recent offering, he tapped out BJJ black belt Fabricio Camoes with an armbar and choked out Yancy Medeiros.
As for Dariush, he has been one of the dark horses at 155 pounds who have really impressed. He is also well-rounded, having good striking and a refined ground game.
Despite a loss to Ramsey Nijem in his second UFC bout, Dariush has been racking up big wins. Other than a decision win over Diego Ferreira, he has tapped out Charlie Brenneman, Tony Martin and Daron Cruickshank in impressive fashion.
This will actually be a close fight. However, Miller's experience and constantly tough schedule have him prepared for this bout and should give him the slight edge over Dariush.
Prediction: Miller def. Dariush via decision
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