Despite Busy Offseason, Buffalo Bills Still Not Tops in AFC East

The Buffalo Bills have a new, highly regarded head coach in Rex Ryan. They have a dynamic running back in LeSean McCoy and a blossoming star in wide receiver Sammy Watkins. And they have a young, potential-laden quarterback in E.J. Manuel. It was a busy offseason, and Bills fans have reason for optimism.

But unfortunately, the team still won’t win its division. The defending champion New England Patriots have dominated the AFC East for over a decade, winning 12 of the past 14 division titles (including each of the past six). And for three particular reasons, Buffalo will fail to break that streak this year.

You Can't Manufacture Talent

Virtually nobody doubts Rex Ryan’s ability as a defensive coach. During his nine-year career with Baltimore, Ryan routinely fielded one of the league’s 10 best defenses. It was Ryan’s defensive wizardry that earned him a head coaching gig with the New York Jets in 2008, and when the Jets made consecutive appearances in the AFC title game in 2009 and 2010, they were carried by elite defensive performances.

Ryan may have a natural flair for defense, and while he’s capable of coaxing more out of defensive players than most coaches, he can’t manufacture talent—particularly in the secondary.

As a member of the Jets, Darrelle Revis was a first-team All-Pro selection in three consecutive seasons, from 2009 to 2011. In 2010, the Jets acquired Antonio Cromartie from the San Diego Chargers. Today, Cromartie has been elected to three straight Pro Bowls. Shaun Ellis was a Pro Bowler in 2010, and three players—Calvin Pace, Bart Scott and David Harris—turned in career-best sack totals during that span.

And in each of those three seasons, at least four Jets starters recorded a minimum of four sacks. 

Mario Williams and Marcell Dareus were first-team All-Pro selections for the Bills last year. Brandon Spikes was a major contributor in New England and should benefit from Ryan's defensive experience.

From a statistical standpoint, those three can probably mimic the production of Pace, Ellis, Scott or Harris in New York. But on paper, at least, the Bills simply do not have the secondary they need (especially in a division with Tom Brady).

Ryan has managed to elicit career-best years from plenty of players. Under his tutelage, many athletes have outperformed expectations. But he has also benefited from coaching several of the league’s most capable defenders. He’ll need to bring out the best in this Buffalo team if they hope to compete.

Can Rex Ryan Coach an Elite Offense?

Regardless of Buffalo's defense, the team faces big questions on offense.

The first important point here is that none of Ryan’s teams have ever boasted even a top-10 offense. The closest he has come was in 2010, when the Jets finished 13th in the league in points and 11th in total yards. Given that Buffalo plays in the same division as New England, having a league-average offense isn’t likely to cut it.

On the other hand, it’s fair to say that Ryan has never had the talent he’ll have this year in Buffalo. He’s certainly never had a running back like McCoy. Percy Harvin, when healthy, is one of the more explosive receivers in the game, and if Sammy Watkins can build on his impressive 2014 campaign, he’ll quickly join the upper echelon of receivers.

Which brings us to the second important point here:

Year(s)	Player(s)	Average Passer Rating	Avg. NFL Rank
2009-12	Sanchez	70.8	26
2013-14	Smith	71.5	29
---	---	---	---

Even if McCoy performs up to expectations, the Bills still have a huge hole at quarterback, with EJ Manuel and Matt Cassel combining for an average passer rating of 73.05 in 2014, ranked 31st in the NFL. It is far from certain that Manuel can run a top-tier offense, even with McCoy in his backfield. Watkins, Harvin and third-year receiver Robert Woods cannot throw the ball to themselves.

The reality is that Ryan has never shown much ability to coach quarterbacks—particularly young, impressionable, highly touted players (like Smith or Sanchez).

Plus, Cassel—currently listed as the team’s backup QB—has never matched his success from 2011, when he started for New England in place of the injured Tom Brady. Neither Cassel nor Manuel, in short, have demonstrated the ability to consistently win games as a starting NFL quarterback.

Gambling on Youth and Health

Manuel is 25 and has played less than two full seasons in the NFL. Sammy Watkins, entering his second year, is only 21. Robert Woods, the team’s likely No. 2 receiver, is 23. Starting safeties Duke and Aaron Williams (no relation) are both 24. Preston Brown, the Bills’ probable starting inside linebacker, is 22. Buffalo’s depth chart is peppered with young players at key positions.

Plus, Fred Jackson is 34. Harvin has a long, long history of injury. Manuel missed five games in 2013 after hurting his knee and was benched for most of last season. McCoy missed the Pro Bowl this year with a mild leg injury. (He’s not seriously hurt, but a lengthy injury to McCoy would almost certainly eliminate any chance Buffalo has of winning their division.)

The Bills are depending on a group of players who are either young, injury-prone—or both.

These are dangerous games to play with New England. Not only do the Patriots routinely turn unheralded role players into key contributors—making injuries much less devastating—but New England is considered arguably the best-coached team in the NFL.

They are ruthless when it comes to exploiting their opponents’ weaknesses, and a team loaded with inexperienced players at important positions is particularly susceptible.

In sum, the Bills have potential—but they're not quite there. Buffalo faces too many questions, particularly on offense, and will rely heavily on contributions from unproven players. The Bills need to decide if Manuel is their quarterback of the future, as McCoy won't be around forever.

And Rex Ryan will need to push his secondary to the limit if he hopes to topple New England in the near future. The odds of that happening this year are slim.