NASCAR at Texas 2015: Complete Preview and Prediction for the Duck Commander 500
Texas is the home to some of the most entertaining sports teams in the entire country. But when NASCAR hits the Lone Star State, there is no bigger spectacle than what takes place at Texas Motor Speedway.
The 1.5-mile track hosts two races every year, with two different drivers typically finding their way into Victory Lane. Jimmie Johnson has often found success during the fall race, but he has never won in the spring.
Last year saw a first-time winner at the track take the checkered flag when Joey Logano shot off the six-shooters. Already a Daytona 500 winner this season, will Sliced Bread repeat in the April race this time around?
Unlike Martinsville, Texas doesn't have a lot of history. It opened in 1997, and there have been only 28 races ran at the track, with Johnson holding the most wins at four.
On an intermediate track like Texas, the test will be more about the car and engine holding up rather than the mayhem in Martinsville. With the break finally over, expect another chaotic race at one of NASCAR's cookie cutter tracks.
By the Numbers: Texas Motor Speedway
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Duck Commander 500
Place: Texas Motor Speedway
Date: Saturday, April 11
Time: 7:30 p.m. (ET)
TV: Fox
Radio: Motor Racing Network, Sirius XM Ch. 90
Distance: 501 miles, 334 laps
Defending race winner: Jimmie Johnson
Youngest Texas winner: Joey Logano (April 7, 2014—23 years, 10 months, 13 days)
Oldest Texas winner: Dale Jarrett (April 1, 2001—44 years, 4 months, 6 days)
Defending pole winner: Matt Kenseth (199.299 mph, Oct. 31, 2014)
Youngest Texas pole winner: Brian Vickers (Nov. 5, 2006—23 years, 0 months, 12 days)
Oldest Texas pole winner: Bill Elliott (April 8, 2002—46 years, 6 months)
Track notes
- In 28 races, 18 different drivers have won at the intermediate track.
- Race record: Greg Biffle (160.577 mph, April 2012)
- Qualifying record: Brian Vickers (196.235 mph, Nov. 2006)
- The closest margin of victory was 0.028 seconds by Elliott Sadler over Kasey Kahne in 2004.
- Matt Kenseth has the most top-five finishes (13) at Texas (in 25 starts).
- Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson are tied for the most top-10 finishes (17) at Texas (in 25 and 23 starts, respectively).
Statistics courtesy NASCAR weekly event-update book.
Key Storylines (Duck Commander 500)
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Can Jimmie Johnson Win His First Spring Race At Texas?
Is there a track where Johnson hasn't completely blistered the field a time or two? In the fall at Texas, he's nearly untouchable. The spring, however, has been a completely different story.
Since 2008, Johnson has four top-two finishes in April at Texas. Already a winner at another intermediate track this season, Johnson might finally be in line to win his first race in Texas when the flowers are still blooming.
Will Sparks Fly Between Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski?
No one, and I mean no one, has forgotten about the fall race at Texas. Not because JJ won—that's a given in the fall—but due to what took place after the race.
The melee between Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski captured the sport's attention following their on-track incident. Both crews got involved, with Gordon having some choice words for the Team Penske driver after the race. If these two drivers find each other on the track, the rivalry has a chance to heat up again.
How Will Kyle Larson Fare in His Return?
One of the brightest young stars in the sport, Kyle Larson was forced to miss the most recent race at Martinsville due to health issues. Already on the entry list, Larson plans to make his return at Texas.
Last season, Larson finished fifth and seventh at the 1.5-mile track. Now that he's back to full health, look for Larson to make a statement in his return to immediately get back into the Chase Grid.
Is Stewart-Haas Racing As a Whole Turning a Corner?
We all know Kevin Harvick has been dominant and Kurt Busch has looked great since his return to the track. But Danica Patrick and Tony Stewart were struggling to find their way to the top of the leaderboard.
SHR clearly has the speed, and Patrick proved what she can do with that speed at Martinsville by finishing seventh. She's also 15th on the Chase Grid, while Stewart is trying to build momentum. Heading to a track where he's won twice in his career, the No. 14 car might finally collect another checkered flag.
Can Joey Logano Repeat in the Spring?
Over the brief history at Texas, no driver has ever repeated in the spring race. Then again, the first nine races were all in April or March when Texas only had one event per year.
Logano, the youngest driver to ever win at Texas, is looking to accomplish another huge feat Saturday. Team Penske cars have already shown stellar speed this season, so becoming the first to repeat doesn't seem out of the question for the No. 22 machine.
Drivers to Watch
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Carl Edwards
One of only two drivers to ever pull off a season sweep at Texas, Carl Edwards hasn't enjoyed much recent success at the track. In his first year with Joe Gibbs Racing, Edwards has also gotten off to a slow start.
Can he turn things around in the Lone Star State? After he captured five top-10 results in his last eight races at the track, expect a strong race from Edwards just one race removed from JGR's first win of the year.
Paul Menard
Off to a consistent start this season, Paul Menard is sitting sixth in points through the first six races. Never finishing better than 16th in the standings, Menard will need to sustain those results to finally make the Chase.
Martin Truex Jr.
The obvious faces of NASCAR on multicar teams are setting the pace for the Sprint Cup. But so far, Martin Truex Jr. and his single-car Furniture Row Racing team have upset the system.
Every sports fan loves a good underdog, and Truex has the ability to keep the streak of top-10 finishes alive. After already taking six to this point, another might be in the books at Texas, where he has eight top-10s in 19 races.
Ryan Newman
The discipline levied against Ryan Newman for a tire penalty at Auto Club Speedway docked him 75 points. He then dropped to 26th in points, essentially wiping away the three top-five finishes he's already collected this year.
Expect Newman to come out strong in Texas to prove that the penalties won't define him. Even without his crew chief for the next six races, the Richard Childress Racing driver will remain consistent on this 1.5-mile track.
Greg Biffle
Roush Fenway Racing is going through a down year, but Greg Biffle might be able to give the team a glimmer of hope at Texas. With two victories and an average finish of 14.59, Biffle will be around the top 10 all night with hopes of capturing his second such finish of the year.
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Favorites
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Jimmie Johnson
Will spring ever be sprung for Johnson at Texas? OK, that was a little corny, but it's a legitimate question. Johnson has always been a bridesmaid and never a bride at the track in April, but this could finally be the season he finds the speed to win the opener at Texas.
Joey Logano
A winner at the track last season, Logano is looking for the first spring repeat in the history of the track. Holding an average finish of 5.25 in the last four races at Texas, he might just lasso the competition Saturday.
Kevin Harvick
How can a driver be a favorite at a course when he's never won a race? Because his name is Kevin Harvick. The No. 4 machine has torched at every track this season, so seeing him up near the front Saturday night doesn't seem unreasonable.
Denny Hamlin
Coming off his first win of the season, Denny Hamlin heads to another track where he has been dominant in the past. Both of his victories came in 2010 at the course, but he led 23 laps in 2014 and will be looking for consecutive wins for JGR on Saturday.
Matt Kenseth
Wait, Kenseth? The driver who hasn't won in over a season now? Yes, Kenseth is still a favorite at Texas with his ability to drive near the front. His last win at Texas came in 2011, but his four top-fives since prove he's still one to watch at the intermediate course.
Dark-Horse Pick: Kyle Larson
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Watch out for Kyle Larson on Saturday evening, as he'll be looking to make a huge statement that he's healthy and ready to compete.
Intermediate tracks are where Larson has been cutting his teeth during his short career at the Sprint Cup level. Last season, he had three top-five results at 1.5-mile courses and narrowly missed out on a win at Kansas.
His average finish last year at Texas was sixth. Therefore, it doesn't seem like a stretch to say he'll find his way up near the front again.
With a brash style that will see him take the top line on a regular basis, Larson has the talent to take down any opponent to get to the next level.
It's always been a matter of when, not if, for Larson. The answer to that question might be now with a powerful race this weekend.
And the Winner Is: Joey Logano
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Love 'em or hate 'em, Team Penske has the speed to get the job done at any track. Logano is a polarizing figure in the sport for fans, but he has long been a contender at Texas, even with only one win to show for it.
It's hard to find trends at Texas, but Logano has found somewhat of a groove recently. That groove finally produced a win when he led 108 laps in last year's April race to drive to Victory Lane.
With some of the best speed and equipment in the sport, the Penske duo already has a pair of wins. Logano has been the second-best driver in the sport through six races, but he can prove why he's a championship contender with a second victory Saturday.
When the six-shooters go off in Texas, expect Logano's silly grin to be in the middle.
Follow R. Cory Smith on Twitter.
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