Predicting Who's In and Who's Out of 2015 NBA Playoff Picture
No fewer than seven NBA teams are fighting for their playoff lives with about a week remaining until the 2015 postseason kicks off.
There are two spots to divvy up between the Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference. Merely two-and-a-half games separate the leader of that group, the currently seventh-seeded Nets, from the back-of-the-pack Hornets.
If it weren't for the slippage suffered by the Phoenix Suns and Detroit Pistons, both of whom are far enough back of the No. 8 spot to be dismissed as playoff hopefuls, we'd have an even more crowded postseason picture.
There's a little less congestion out West, where the Oklahoma City Thunder's half-game lead on the New Orleans Pelicans will result in tragedy no matter which team secures the eighth playoff spot. Fans of superhuman athletes will be deprived of either Russell Westbrook or Anthony Davis this postseason.
These playoffs ain't big enough for the both of them.
With so little time left to sort things out, luck's role in the proceedings will only get bigger. A bad bounce here or a tweaked ankle there can change everything when the postseason and the lottery are separated by a razor's edge.
Let's dig into each remaining hopeful's upcoming schedule and recent performance to separate the postseason participants from the guys who'll be at home watching.
Brooklyn Nets
1 of 7
Record: 36-41
Position in Conference: 7
Games Back of Playoff Spot: N/A
So this is what it looks like when the Brooklyn Nets get healthy, productive versions of Brook Lopez and Deron Williams.
Not bad. Not bad at all.
Brooklyn has won eight of its last 10 games, all but cementing its playoff status, and its veteran duo has been the reason why. Since March 20, Lopez has posted averages of 26.2 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game on 60.7 percent shooting.
Williams' averages have been nearly as impressive: 14.6 points, 8.2 assists and 4.5 rebounds on 44.4 percent shooting from the field and 52.5 percent from long range.
"Maybe D-Will isn’t done after all," wrote Mike Mazzeo of ESPNNewYork.com. "Maybe he still has a lot left in the tank."
Forget maybe. At the moment, Williams and Lopez definitely look like guys who are ready to tie up a playoff berth.
No other team we'll discuss has played better than Brooklyn lately. Consequently, no other team's playoff status is as clearly contender-worthy.
The Nets are in.
Verdict: In
Boston Celtics
2 of 7
Record: 35-42
Position in Conference: 8
Games Back of Playoff Spot: N/A
It won't be all chalk in the East, as the Boston Celtics will slip out of playoff position by season's end (according to these predictions anyway).
The Celtics have played hard all year, have a fantastic coach in Brad Stevens and may benefit from the lack of pressure that their rebuilding status grants them. The Heat's stumbles have allowed Boston to sneak into eighth position, despite some serious recent swings.
Maybe sneak isn't the right word.
"That Boston has that control at this point of the season is truly astounding. The Celtics are 22-16 since Jan. 22 and the aftermath of the Jeff Green trade (having dealt away Rajon Rondo the month before). Boston is 10-6 over the past month, brushing itself off after a rough patch against some Western Conference juggernauts and, mostly, taking care of business with its backs against the playoff wall recently.
"
You've got to give it up for the Celtics. They've been darn good since fully committing to their youth movement. And with a one-game lead on the Pacers for the eighth spot, they're in control of their own destiny.
Unfortunately, they'll have to face the Cleveland Cavaliers twice before season's end, along with the Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks. The Detroit Pistons are on Boston's ledger next, and you'd think Stan Van Gundy's boys would roll over since they're merely playing out the string.
But Boston and Detroit have split a pair of games this year, and both have been hotly contested overtime affairs. Nothing ahead of the Celtics will be easy.
Consider this a bet that Boston will slip.
Verdict: Out
Charlotte Hornets
3 of 7
Record: 33-43
Position in Conference: 11
Games Back of Playoff Spot: 1.5
As a season of dashed hopes and overblown (mostly Lance Stephenson-related) expectations winds to a close, at least we can say this for the Charlotte Hornets: They never gave up.
Remember, Charlotte kicked off its campaign with just six wins in its first 25 contests. Since then, the Hornets have featured one of the league's top defenses and won three more games than they've lost. The record since that awful start may not seem like much, but if the Hornets could have found their .500 form from the get-go, they'd be sitting comfortably in sixth place.
Charlotte has six games left on its schedule, including four on the road, where it is just 14-23 this season. Of those six contests, only one—an April 12 tilt at the Pistons—features an opponent that is completely out of the postseason mix.
Everyone else the Hornets face from now on will have a better record than they do.
Not only that, but Charlotte is also falling apart physically. Al Jefferson probably would have been shut down by now if not for the team's proximity to a playoff spot, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's sprained ankle has cost him five straight games and Cody Zeller is battling a shoulder injury.
If it were only the schedule or only failing health, maybe the Hornets would have a shot. But since both are factors, we can safely rule Charlotte out.
Verdict: Out
Indiana Pacers
4 of 7
Record: 34-43
Position in Conference: 9 (tie)
Games Back of Playoff Spot: 1
Maybe the good vibes of Paul George's return are making it hard to be logical, but the Pacers just seem like a team with a second wind—albeit one that showed up with little time to spare.
Indy handed it to the Heat on April 5, and it'll get to notch two more relatively easy games against the New York Knicks and Pistons before taking on OKC, the Washington Wizards and the Grizzlies to close out the year.
A 2-3 finish seems like an absolute worst-case scenario, but couldn't you picture a Pacers team (which we can't forget has loads of playoff experience and a proven defensive pedigree) ripping off four wins in five games?
Or even a 5-0 run that pushes them all the way up to No. 7 in the conference?
George is still obviously rusty, and expecting him to single-handedly revive an offense that has sputtered all season long is probably a mistake. But he can improve Indy's scoring attack marginally, if only by forcing defenders to honor him on the strength of his reputation.
Per Mark Montieth of Pacers.com, Luis Scola said:
"I'm still going to be cautious. He was out for a long time and it's very hard to play after that. It's going to take a toll at some point. It's not fair to him for us to rely on any help he can give us. He's a special player and special players can do special things, but still, it's the wrong approach to say he's going to make us qualified for the playoffs.
"
George won't do it on his own. Logic says so, precedent says so and Scola says so.
But he's going to help defensively, with the occasional scoring burst and, most of all, by providing an emotional lift.
George just beat a devastating injury. Why can't the Pacers beat the odds?
Verdict: In
Miami Heat
5 of 7
Record: 34-43
Position in Conference: 9 (tie)
Games Back of Playoff Spot: 1
"There's been times when it's been awful," Dwyane Wade said of the Heat's season after dropping a 112-89 decision to the Pacers on April 5, per Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
Miami has lost four straight, and it seems that every defeat has come with another significant injury.
Wade has been fighting through a bruised left knee, and both Luol Deng and Michael Beasley left the contest against Indiana with knee problems of their own. Hassan Whiteside, Chris Andersen and, of course, Chris Bosh have all been absent lately as well.
There have been recent stretches with 6'6" Henry Walker at power forward or center, just to put a finer point on the Heat's complete lack of frontcourt depth.
The schedule ahead is relatively easy: four consecutive home games against Charlotte, the Chicago Bulls, the Toronto Raptors and the Orlando Magic. Even with all the injuries, maybe a 2-2 split is possible there. And with the season finale coming at the Philadelphia 76ers, the Heat could reasonably expect to win three of their final five games.
Will that be enough?
It's close, but probably not.
The Indiana Pacers own the tiebreaker with Miami, and it's hard to know what the Heat might do with Wade if the Charlotte game results in a loss. Remember, the Heat lose their pick in this year's draft to the Sixers if it falls outside the top 10. At some point, if things look bleak, it might be worth mailing in the final few games to preserve that asset.
Verdict: Out
Oklahoma City Thunder
6 of 7
Record: 42-35
Position in Conference: 8
Games Back of Playoff Spot: N/A
Let's get one thing straight right up front: The Thunder aren't going to do anything in the postseason if they keep hemorrhaging points like they've been for the past month or so.
Since March 1, their defensive rating of 109 is the third-worst figure in the league, according to NBA.com.
The good news is that OKC will probably get a chance to prove it can buckle down on D in the postseason.
The schedule is the main reason, as the Thunder will get the Sacramento Kings, banged-up Portland Trail Blazers and sleepwalking Timberwolves in the season's final stretch. They'll also have to face the San Antonio Spurs and travel to Indiana, but it's not hard to see at least three (and possibly four) victories in that five-game run.
Manageable slate aside, Russell Westbrook has fought tooth and nail for most of this season, and there's no chance he'll give in now. Oklahoma City has lost three straight and five of its last six overall. Beset by injury, weak defense and a ton of mental mistakes, maybe the Thunder aren't the smart pick to snag that final playoff spot in the West.
But it's not like the Pelicans are a picture of health, and their closing run looks far more daunting. That's good news for the Thunder.
Verdict: In
New Orleans Pelicans
7 of 7
Record: 41-35
Position in Conference: 9
Games Back of Playoff Spot: 0.5
So, we've spoiled this one a bit by labeling the Thunder contenders. But you wouldn't have had to do much more than glance at the Pellies' stretch-run schedule to see the obvious: New Orleans faces some brutal foes in its remaining games.
The Pelicans get the Warriors on Apr. 7, followed by a visit to the Memphis Grizzlies the very next night. Two West powers separated by less than 24 hours? Not an ideal way to start a closing run.
April 10 will bring the Phoenix Suns to the Smoothie King Center. That's a likely win, as Phoenix isn't in the playoff mix any longer.
But then the Pelicans travel to Houston on Apr. 12, after which they finish off another back-to-back set in Minnesota. The Timberwolves will have no interest in winning, but anybody is dangerous on short rest.
The season ends with a date against the Spurs, who may still be trying to improve their seed—even at that late juncture.
There's some hope here; New Orleans is a combined 10-7 against the teams on its remaining schedule. Remarkably, the Pelicans have taken two of three from both the Spurs and Grizzlies this year. If Davis wins one or two games by himself, who knows what could happen?
And remember, New Orleans beat the Thunder three times in four tries this year, which gives it the tiebreaker in the event it finishes deadlocked with OKC.
It's no fun ruling out the Pelicans, and you get the sense that if the next few days played out 100 times in a simulator, New Orleans would make the playoffs 30 or 40 times. But OKC has the experienced superstar on a mission, the easier schedule and the half-game lead.
That'll be enough to defer the Pelicans' playoff dreams until next year.
Verdict: Out
*All stats accurate through games played April 6.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
