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Fantasy Football 2015: Biggest Winners and Losers in NFL Free Agency

Alessandro MiglioApr 7, 2015

As usual, the fantasy football landscape has drastically changed after the earthquakes and storms of NFL free agency hit. 

Major moves were made, dramatically altering the fantasy fates of numerous players and those around them or left in their wake.

Which players benefited most from it all? Who will see more playing time? Which new situations are worse? Click through to find out.

Winner: Sam Bradford, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

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Nobody improved their fantasy football situation as wildly as Sam Bradford.

Granted, it was through no fault of his own—he didn't force a trade, though he certainly could have greased the wheels. Whatever the circumstances, Bradford is in a better situation, and he knows it, per Pro Football Talk's Michael David Smith:

"

I think any quarterback in the league would love to play for Chip [Kelly], in his offense. It’s extremely quarterback-friendly. The tape that I’ve watched, it just looks like a lot of fun to play in. I think it’s similar to what I did in college at Oklahoma. I’m extremely excited.

"

If he can stay healthy, the former No. 1 pick could be in for a renaissance in Philadelphia. Kelly is a kingmaker, and Bradford is his newest prince.

Loser: Ryan Mathews, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

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For a fleeting moment, Ryan Mathews was king of the Philadelphia backfield.

The sixth-year running back was signed by the Eagles after they'd traded LeSean McCoy away to Buffalo, making it seem like Mathews would be the heir apparent to the fantasy throne. Then DeMarco Murray happened.

Sam Bradford helped recruit the reigning rushing champion, who drew the ire of Dallas Cowboys fans when he joined a hated division rival. That means Mathews won't rule the roost—on the contrary, he will be fighting with Darren Sproles for touches behind Murray.

Winner: Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

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One guy who figures to be low on the fantasy totem pole may be one of the biggest sleepers of the year if the offseason has been any indication.

Blake Bortles got off to a predictably rocky start in the NFL, being thrown into the fire well before the Jacksonville Jaguars intended when they took him with the No. 3 overall pick. Nobody counted him in the fantasy realm, nor should they have given his situation.

Things are certainly looking brighter as he heads into his second season.

The biggest improvement for Bortles comes in the form of Julius Thomas, the big tight end who should be a massive upgrade over Marcedes Lewis.

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Loser: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

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The offseason hasn't been kind to the Saints offense.

A combination of salary-cap woes and rumored discord prompted a bit of a fire sale when New Orleans shipped off star tight end Jimmy Graham, stalwart guard Ben Grubbs and promising wide receiver Kenny Stills.

Considering the Saints signed running backs Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller to nearly identical four-year, $16 million deals, it seems like a heavier dose of the ground game is in store for that offense in 2015.

With a downgraded arsenal and fewer passing attempts likely in store—not to mention Father Time lurking in the shadows for him at 36 years of age—quarterback Drew Brees could be in for a crash in the fantasy football realm.

Winner: Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers

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It was all but fated that Carlos Hyde would take over as the lead back in San Francisco, but you never quite know until the chips begin to fall in free agency.

For Hyde, that meant waiting to see if longtime starter Frank Gore would come back on a cheap deal. He took the money and ran to Indianapolis after a brief flirtation with the Philadelphia Eagles, leaving the job all to Hyde.

Well, almost—Reggie Bush did eventually sign, but he has always had more bark than bite to his game. Plus he's not much younger than Gore.

Loser: Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens

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Not that he was a terribly palatable option to begin with, but Joe Flacco's fantasy football pulse has flatlined in free agency.

Partially because of the squeeze from Flacco's massive contract, the Ravens didn't have much cap space to work with this offseason. They had to watch their No. 1 receiver go in free agency, as Torrey Smith landed in San Francisco with the 49ers.

That was after releasing Jacoby Jones, once the No. 88 player in the entire league, according to recency bias. Tight end Owen Daniels followed Smith west, stopping in Denver, where Peyton Manning is sure to make him a fantasy star.

With Dennis Pitta mulling retirement—and perhaps not the same player he once was—Flacco's arsenal is looking like a barrel of Nerf guns.

Winner: Matt Cassel, QB, Buffalo Bills

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Now, now—Matt Cassel can be useful in fantasy football from time to time.

He won't be anything more than a bye-week fill-in or, perhaps, a second starter in a two-quarterback league, but Buffalo's newest signal-caller could put in a few big weeks this season.

That's because of the offense around him. 

Wide receiver Sammy Watkins is on the mend following hip surgery after an injury-bugged rookie year. He is joined by newcomers Percy Harvin—on a one-year, prove-it deal—and Charles Clay. More importantly, dynamic running back LeSean McCoy is now in the fold, which should help keep defenses honest.

The pieces are all in place for Cassel. He just needs to win that starting job.

Loser: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos

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Peyton Manning's reign of terror in the fantasy football realm might be coming to an end.

It almost did this past offseason, if the rumors that he might retire had any legs. Alas, $19 million—or at least $15 million after he restructured his contract—was enough to lure him back for at least one more year.

Manning's return will not be without potential pain points. Gone is 6'5", 250-pound tight end Julius Thomas, taking his 24 touchdowns from the past two years with him to Jacksonville. (Note to the Jaguars: Those touchdowns are nontransferrable.)

Starting guard Orlando Franklin is gone too—signed by the San Diego Chargers—as is savvy veteran receiver Wes Welker, unless he returns on a cheap contract. 

The Broncos either found or already had replacements for these guys, but they are downgrades on paper. Manning is also 39, and his age is worth mentioning every offseason until he actually retires because one of these years we'll be right.

Winner: Andre Johnson, WR, Indianapolis Colts

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The Hall of Fame may be in store for Andre Johnson, and he likely would have gotten there in spite of his quarterbacks in Houston. His career is a reincarnation of Tim Brown's, it would seem.

Brown did finally get a couple of good years in Oakland with Rich Gannon, who won the NFL MVP out of the blue late in his career. It seems Johnson will get his due with a great quarterback now that he has teamed up with Andrew Luck in Indianapolis.

Not only is Luck leaps and bounds better than anything Johnson has ever gotten in the way of quarterbacking, but his opportunities to score fantasy points should increase too—the Colts had the most passing attempts in the league last season.

Houston attempted the third-fewest.

Loser: Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts

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Andre Johnson's arrival in Indianapolis may be a boon for him and the Colts offense, but it short-circuits another receiver's fantasy stock.

Donte Moncrief was in line for a dramatic increase in playing time and targets with Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne adrift in free agency. Johnson's arrival puts a damper on that, though Moncrief should still see an uptick in production as the No. 3 receiver.

Winner: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans

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DeAndre Hopkins is another player whose fantasy stock was directly affected by Andre Johnson's defection.

The talented receiver made some huge plays for the Houston Texans last season, and he is ready to explode in his third season now that Johnson is out of the picture. 

Granted, it seemed like he was going to take over as the No. 1 receiver whether Johnson was let go or not—reports surfaced this offseason regarding head coach Bill O'Brien's revelation that the latter would be taking a back seat in the offense, according to the Houston Chronicle's Jerome Solomon. That news was the veritable straw that broke the camel's back in Johnson's relationship with the team.

Hopkins will suffer from the same quarterback handicap Johnson has throughout his career, but he should see an increase in production by virtue of being the top dog in that passing offense.

Loser: Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Jets

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The Chicago Bears didn't need to get rid of Brandon Marshall, per se, but he was yet again traded away for a ham sandwich.

His latest team is the offensively challenged New York Jets, for which a receiver of Marshall's caliber should be a big help. Going from Jay Cutler—as aggravating as he can sometimes be—to Geno Smith is a downgrade, no matter how it's sliced.

Winner: Owen Daniels, TE, Denver Broncos

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He might be a downgrade at tight end, but Owen Daniels is still a decent starter. 

Assuming he can stay healthy, Daniels will be the latest tight end to get the Peyton Manning bump. Remember big years from Dallas Clark? How about Jacob Tamme?

Heck, Julius Thomas isn't as good as his 24 touchdowns say he's been over the past two years, though his checking account says otherwise these days.

If Daniels scores even half the touchdowns Thomas did last season it'll match the former's career high.

Loser: Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks

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The shocking trade that sent Jimmy Graham to the Seattle Seahawks was a boon for that offense, but it was a bane to his fantasy stock.

The clock didn't strike midnight and turn him into a pumpkin, but he is going from one of the best fantasy-scoring environments to one far worse.

Russell Wilson is no slouch, but he isn't Drew Brees as a passer. Part of that is the massive difference in pass attempts—Brees had the most in the league last season with 659, over 200 more than Wilson. The Seahawks as a whole attempted the fewest passes in the league.

Graham garnered over 23 percent of Brees' targets last season if we prorate them over 16 games. That would have amounted to nearly 50 fewer targets in Seattle's offense.

We may well see the Seahawks put the ball up more often in 2015, but they won't likely turn into the Saints. Graham is going to have far fewer opportunities to score fantasy points.

Winner: Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

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There was no reason to keep Steven Jackson in Atlanta. That's good news for Devonta Freeman.

Buried on the depth chart last season, Freeman should see a lot more playing time in his second year. With Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers out of the way, only change-of-pace specialist Antone Smith stands in the way of Freeman receiving an increase in touches in 2015.

New head coach Dan Quinn seems rather optimistic about having Freeman on board, too, per NFL.com's Chris Wesseling: "My first impression: I can feel the quickness. In our outside zone scheme I thought this is tailor-made for a guy who can really explode off the edge. I love this guy's competitive spirit."

Of course, Charles Davis of NFL Network (via AtlantaFalcons.com's Reid Ferrin) recently said that the Falcons might take Georgia's Todd Gurley in the first round of the draft, which would throw a wet blanket on the whole situation. Right now, however, things are looking good for Freeman's fantasy future.

Loser: Rashad Jennings, RB, New York Giants

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Rashad Jennings got off to a great start as the workhorse for the New York Giants last year. Until injury struck, at any rate.

Now he will find himself in a quagmire.

The Giants signed Shane Vereen this offseason, a great pass-catching back who nullifies one of the things Jennings does best. And with Andre Williams coming into his own late in his rookie season, he could be in for a bigger role in his second year.

Jennings could be on the outside looking in for playing time this fall. Even if he is fully healthy and proves his value, he'll be in a three-way timeshare.

Winner: Cody Latimer, WR, Denver Broncos

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With tight end Julius Thomas and wide receiver Wes Welker out of the way, a bunch of Peyton Manning targets are up for grabs.

Owen Daniels will snap some of those up, but second-year receiver Cody Latimer should be in line for some of those, too.

Barely on the field as a rookie, last year's second-round pick will see an increased role. He is more talented than Andre Caldwell, and only Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders should be ahead of Latimer on the depth chart come September. 

Loser: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

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It was great to see Jeremy Maclin cash in with a big contract a year after being forced to take a one-year deal due to a torn ACL. But it wasn't great from a fantasy football standpoint.

Maclin was reunited with his old head coach, Andy Reid, when he signed a five-year, $55 million deal with the Kansas City Chiefs, but his situation is unmistakably worse from an offensive standpoint. 

Quarterback Alex Smith might not necessarily be a step down from Nick Foles or Mark Sanchez, but the latter two could throw the ball downfield. 

Much has been made about the fact that Kansas City wide receivers failed to score a single touchdown last season. Maclin was brought in to fix that, but that offense is simply not going to be conducive to fantasy scoring in the passing game.

Winner: Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

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There may not be many more pass attempts coming for Russell Wilson regardless of Jimmy Graham's arrival, but it's going to be nice to have a weapon like that in the fold.

Of course, Zach Miller arguably represented that upside when the Seahawks signed him a few years back, but injuries and a heavy focus on the run rendered him all but useless. With Wilson's success entering his fourth season, the offense can open up a bit.

Having Graham on board gives Wilson a big, reliable target that can help move the ball and terrorize defenses in the red zone. Even better, stud running back Marshawn Lynch is back on a new deal.

Loser: Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders

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Fans and fantasy owners of Latavius Murray can't be too thrilled with the way things have played out in Oakland.

Aside from a little scare because of reported interest in DeMarco Murray, it seemed like Murray might skate with a three-down role. Then the Raiders had to ruin it for him.

They signed Roy Helu, an underrated pass-catcher who figures to be the third-down back, and then they went and gave Trent Richardson a two-year deal. Nothing good can come of that.

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