Stock Up, Stock Down for Top 2015 NBA Draft Prospects, Post-NCAA Tournament
With the electrifying 2015 NCAA tournament in the rearview mirror, it's officially NBA draft season.
The top collegiate prospects have made their final on-court auditions for the pro ranks, and some improved their stock more than others.
Many were in programs that made deep postseason runs and treated us to some pressure-packed footage and prime scouting opportunities. In fact, 12 of our top 20 prospects advanced to the Elite Eight.
In compiling the stock report for each standout, we analyzed who gained favor in the NBA world during March Madness and who failed to produce or show enough skill to enhance their status.
*Prospects ranked based on overall draft value. Does not include top international prospects or NCAA prospects who did not play in 2015 national tournament.
20. Tyus Jones, Duke PG (6'1", Freshman)
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Tyus Jones might not land as high as No. 20 on draft night, but he's among the top 20 draft prospects who played in the NCAA tournament.
His 23-point heroics in the championship game not only won him Most Outstanding Player honors but vividly displayed his NBA future.
Jones is tricky to guard in pick-and-roll situations, because he's quick turning the corner, a polished passer and a stop-and-pop threat. His combination of shooting prowess and distribution poise will make him a quality rotational playmaker.
Defense will be his weakness; there's no sugarcoating it. However, his foot speed isn't awful, and you can count on his awareness to improve.
19. R.J. Hunter, Georgia State SG (6'6", Junior)
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While his energetic father stole the show on the sidelines, it was R.J. Hunter's on-court exploits that will last beyond CBS' "One Shining Moment."
He didn't face much sturdy competition throughout the regular season against Georgia State's Sun Belt foes, so his play against Baylor and Xavier significantly boosted his stock.
Hunter's late-game explosion to upset the Bears exemplified the long shooting range and instincts he'll bring to the Association. He followed that with a 20-point, five-assist night to keep the Panthers close against the Musketeers.
He won't be a prolific scorer in the NBA, yet he'll be more than a spot-up shooter. Hunter has enough size (6'6", 190 pounds) and shake to keep defenses honest.
18. Montrezl Harrell, Louisville PF (6'8", Junior)
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Montrezl Harrell did his usual explosive damage in March, as he physically overwhelmed most power forward opponents.
After a relatively quiet start to the tourney against UC Irvine and Northern Iowa, Harrell turned it on in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. He registered 24 points and seven rebounds to push Louisville past N.C. State, followed by 16 points and nine boards in an overtime defeat to Michigan State.
In addition to his customary putbacks and dunks, he flashed some finesse. Harrell dished four assists in each of his last two games and converted a couple of running hook shots.
Unfortunately, his short stature (6'8") and unconvincing outside shot make it impossible to rationalize lottery placement.
17. Bobby Portis, Arkansas PF (6'11", Sophomore)
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SEC Player of the Year Bobby Portis didn't shoot the ball too efficiently during his pair of NCAA outings, but he showcased his footwork, wide range of skills and rebounding ability.
After posting 15 points and 13 boards to dispatch Wofford in the round of 64, he gave a valiant all-around effort in Arkansas' loss to North Carolina in the following game.
Portis shot just 5-of-15 from the field, but there were a lot of positives to take from the game. He worked for positioning under the hoop, grabbed 14 rebounds and got to the free-throw line nine times. As a bonus, he dished three assists and showed active hands on defense with five steals.
Outside of the lottery, he's one of the best low-post options you'll find in this draft crop.
16. Kevon Looney, UCLA PF (6'9", Freshman)
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Kevon Looney's rebounding prowess was on display during UCLA's jaunt to the Sweet 16, and so was his raw offensive game.
He averaged 31.7 minutes, 8.3 points and 9.7 boards over the three games. Looney's length, motor and instincts helped clean up the glass and keep several Bruins possessions alive. His offensive game was a mixed bag, however.
Looney showed that he's not a completely polished outside shooter, and he also proved that he's miles from NBA-readiness inside the arc. He has enough coordination to attack closeouts and drive with one or two dribbles, but he lacks the advanced skills to execute in traffic.
It remains to be seen whether he can improve his mid-range creativity and add a couple of low-post moves. Those developments are critical for him because he's not an upper-crust athlete.
15. Jerian Grant, Notre Dame PG (6'5", Senior)
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Throughout Notre Dame's deep run through the Midwest Region, senior Jerian Grant demonstrated his dual-threat talent as a playmaker.
With his speed, smarts and instincts, he constantly created buckets for himself and teammates. He posted 14.3 points and 6.8 assists per game in the tourney while playing disruptive defense.
His stock is nearly as high as it gets for seniors. He brings to the NBA a robust combination of terrific physical gifts and passing proficiency. Jonathan Givony of Draft Express broke down what makes him such a valuable quarterback:
"He is a decisive passer and an extremely unselfish player overall, making reads automatically and whipping the ball impressively all over the court. He has a tremendous natural feel for finding the open man regardless of where they are on the floor, being capable of making every pass in the book, be it high or low, and to cutters, rollers or shooters. Unlike many big guards, he's not a combo looking to make the transition to the point, he's already a tremendous distributor.
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Grant is worth a mid-first-round pick and late-lottery consideration. He can step right in and give his team minutes and playmaking, and his athleticism gives him a decent ceiling.
14. Sam Dekker, Wisconsin SF (6'9", Junior)
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In the championship game, Wisconsin's Sam Dekker reminded us that he's not yet a great outside shooter. But for the balance of the Big Dance, he bumped up his draft stock.
The 6'9" junior was particularly impressive against the athletic lineups of North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky. He exhibited the ability to attack the basket in space, defend at a high level and shoot confidently from the outside.
At the Final Four, he talked about how he's improved significantly from his sophomore to junior season, per Madison.com.
"I've matured mentally and physically," Dekker said. "My game has taken a turn for the better. I just feel more prepared every time I'm on the court, I feel more in control. Everything's a little slower."
He's not a lottery lock, but he offers splendid mid-first-round value as a two-way small forward.
13. Devin Booker, Kentucky SG (6'6", Freshman)
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Even though Devin Booker didn't have an outstanding Final Four game against Wisconsin, he closed the season with some solid stretches during Kentucky's championship-less tourney.
He did more than just pass the eye test as a shooter. The freshman 2-guard also looks like a capable handler, one who can get past defenders on the perimeter and make the right passes, and he plays at the rim.
Defensively, he's not as promising yet, but fans and media were too harsh when Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker bested him Saturday. At 6'6", he's three inches shorter than Dekker and six inches shorter than Kaminsky.
Booker has offered enough instincts and footwork on both ends to warrant lottery consideration. He'll land in the 10-18 range wherever there's a team yearning for a shooter.
12. Kelly Oubre, Kansas SG/SF (6'7", Freshman)
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Once thought to be a potential top-10 pick, Kelly Oubre's stock has slipped a little bit after an erratic finish to the season.
He remains an intriguing specimen due to his fluid athleticism and ranginess, but he has a lot to prove in key skill areas. His tournament play highlighted that: In two games, he went 6-of-16 from the field with one assist.
Oubre has tangible jump-shooting potential, but his ball-handling sharpness and creativity are suspect. He's far too reliant on his left hand, and he can't yet manipulate defenses to generate easy buckets for himself and teammates.
Defensively, he has room for improvement, but I'm encouraged by his progress and tools. His length (6'7") and foot speed will serve him well as an on-ball stopper, and he's shown good instincts and ability to disrupt as a weak-side helper.
11. Jakob Poeltl, Utah C (7'0", Freshman)
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Jakob Poeltl is one of the least flashy players you'll find in the lottery, but his usefulness to NBA teams is undeniable.
The 7-foot Austrian native delivered a rock-solid NCAA tourney for Utah, scoring double figures in all three games and supplying top-tier defense. With a little more polishing and bulk (235 lbs), he could be a valuable rotational big or a starter.
During the Utes' loss to Duke, Poeltl gave Jahlil Okafor a ton of trouble and probably won the individual battle. He did a great job of working for position, altering shots, crashing the offensive glass and running the floor. In 27 minutes, he posted 10 points, eight rebounds and three blocks.
He's not a dynamic or fluid shot creator in the post, yet his two-way value might earn a lottery spot. He could chip in 20-plus minutes as a game-changing defender and fourth or fifth option on offense.
10. Kris Dunn, Providence PG (6'4", Sophomore)
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Dayton upset Providence in its opening NCAA tilt largely because Kris Dunn forced too many plays. He finished the night at 4-of-13 shooting and seven turnovers.
As ugly as that was, we can't point his stock arrow downward based on one game. His electrifying work leading up to that loss, including a superb Big East tournament, is enough to keep his name in the lottery conversation. Dunn routinely notched 17-20 points and eight-10 assists per night down the stretch.
His speed in attack mode and talent as a passer outweighs his shaky decision-making. As Dunn matures and learns when to not force things, he'll have a healthy assist-to-turnover ratio in the big leagues. Most importantly, his pick-and-roll arsenal will give opponents fits.
"He has a quick first step and natural playmaking abilities," said Sports Illustrated's Chris Mannix. "His three-point shot needs work, but he is a solid mid-range shooter."
Sprinkle in his length (6'4") and ball-hawking instincts on defense (2.7 steals per game), and you've got a future starting floor general.
9. Trey Lyles, Kentucky F (6'10", Freshman)
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During the last few weeks of the season, Kentucky's oft-overshadowed forward Trey Lyles looked increasingly like an NBA forward.
Not only does he move gracefully for a 6'10" player, but his athleticism has been a bit underrated. That tends to happen when you play alongside Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns. He averaged double-digit scoring in the Big Dance despite getting just 25-29 minutes per game.
Lyles' skill set is what's most exciting. He shows fluidity as a jump-shooter, face-up creativity from the wing and post-up polish. John Calipari didn't feature him in the offense, but whenever his teammates got him the ball in space, he showcased superb body control and scoring touch.
His defense hasn't been as consistent or eye-popping as WCS or Towns, and he doesn't seem to have substantial upside on that end of the court. However, his agility and wingspan of more than seven feet should make him a serviceable stopper.
8. Myles Turner, Texas C (7'0", Freshman)
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Myles Turner's stock isn't plummeting by any means. He simply finished the season with some underwhelming performances, including a 1-of-5 shooting night in Texas' loss to Butler in the round of 64.
The towering freshman had an up-and-down season. His outside shooting touch and rim protection both scream "NBA," because he hit 43 percent of two-point jumpers, per Hoop-math.com and altered countless shots. Meanwhile, he failed to consistently control the paint or show the kind of athleticism and fluidity executives want to see from bigs.
His NBA ceiling is difficult to gauge, but he'll land in the 10-15 range on draft night. He's likely too risky for a top-10 pick, but I'll be surprised if he falls far past the lottery.
7. Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin PF/C (7'0", Senior)
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Even in a loss, Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky continued to fortify his already strong NBA draft outlook.
He outplayed Duke's young prodigy, Jahlil Okafor, registering 21 points and 12 rebounds to keep the Badgers in the national title game. The nimble 7-footer curled to the hoop, splashed a couple triples and drove to the rack with devastating drop steps. He did a decent job of containing Okafor as well.
This strong outing comes on the heels of his magnificent game against Kentucky. Kaminsky likely locked up lottery status in that semifinal battle, showing he can compensate for mediocre athleticism with elite skill.
Don't expect him to be the primary scorer for his NBA squad. He won't be dynamic enough in the post to put up huge numbers. However, he'll serve as a potent role player, one who can space the floor, put the ball on the deck and give opponents matchup problems.
6. Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky C (7'0", Junior)
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The book on Willie Cauley-Stein remains the same: phenomenal defender, severely limited scorer.
Kentucky's hyper-athletic big man spent at least some time guarding literally every position on the floor during the tournament. His footwork, instincts and explosiveness have all noticeably improved since his freshman year.
In a league where pick-and-roll guards and athletic forwards are the greatest offensive forces, Cauley-Stein could be the NBA's kryptonite. His defensive value alone makes him a lottery pick.
On the flip side, his offense continued to disappoint as the tourney progressed. That partially influences the comparisons to Tyson Chandler, although I believe he'll do more than Chandler in his prime.
5. Stanley Johnson, Arizona SF (6'7", Freshman)
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Stanley Johnson remains one of the top wings on the draft board and a likely top-10 pick, but he didn't boost his stock during Arizona's Elite Eight run.
After splashing triples all over Texas Southern, he was relatively quiet on the offensive end. In the ensuing three games, he shot 7-of-26 (27 percent) and averaged 7.3 points per game.
He didn't finish on a high note, but over the course of the year, he lived up to preseason expectations and even surprised us in a few areas. Johnson showed defensive talent, playmaking versatility and better-than-advertised shooting.
Sources told Jon Rothstein of CBSSports.com that the freshman is "torn" about leaving Arizona for the NBA. Keep an eye on this development, because it could shake up the back end of the 2014 lottery.
4. Justise Winslow, Duke SF (6'7", Freshman)
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Duke might not have made it past the Sweet 16 without Justise Winslow. He took his game to another level in March, and in the process he separated himself from the rest of the wings in the draft.
He still has a lot of polishing to do from a footwork and dribbling standpoint, and he needs to develop his mid-range game. But he unleashed his potential by the bucketful all month long.
Winslow's final NCAA tourney stat line is a testament to his dynamic versatility: 14.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.7 blocks per contest. He also shot 28-of-55 (51 percent) from the field and 8-of-14 from three-range (57 percent).
For an idea of what his NBA role could be, think of a more fluid version of Kawhi Leonard or Jimmy Butler. He's already much more dangerous and accomplished than they were at 19 years old.
3. D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State G (6'5", Freshman)
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D'Angelo Russell's pair of NCAA tournament games showed us his dazzling qualities as well as his deficiencies.
He's a special talent who can break down opponents and fill up the hoop from all over the floor. That was readily apparent as he carved up VCU's havoc defense for 28 points in Ohio State's second-round triumph. His basketball IQ and poised execution are what will make him a top-five pick in June.
He's also still a teenager (19) prone to forcing plays occasionally, and more importantly, he's not a springy athlete.
Russell's quick enough as a handler, but his so-so explosiveness was evident against Arizona. Upside and Motor's Chris Stone noted the shortcomings: "His lack of elite athleticism was on display throughout the contest. Russell finished the game shooting just 1-for-7 on shots at the rim, according to data from Hoop-Math."
Nevertheless, his brilliant vision and shot-making prowess should be enough to land him at No. 3 or No. 4.
2. Jahlil Okafor, Duke C (6'11", Freshman)
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Towering freshman Jahlil Okafor wasn't overly impressive during Duke's title chase.
He took care of business against smaller lineups (see: Robert Morris, San Diego State and Michigan State), but top-tier frontcourts (see: Utah, Gonzaga and Wisconsin) held him in check.
The big fella definitely didn't hurt his draft stock, however. He shot 63.5 percent from the field in the Big Dance, flashed more ball-handling prowess and respectable defense. We even saw him hit the sporadic 12-15-foot banker.
There's certainly enough foot speed and agility to believe in his improvement on that end (his 7'5" wingspan doesn't hurt, either). He will need to improve his effort and positioning moving forward.
Overall, he's still worth the No. 1 pick. His strengths as a low-post weapon and passer far outweigh the concerns about his defense or perimeter game.
1. Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky PF/C (7'0", Freshman)
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Even though Karl-Anthony Towns couldn't lift Kentucky past Wisconsin in the Final Four, he's not going to slip out of consideration for the No. 1 overall pick.
After taking care of business against the smaller lineup of Notre Dame (25 points and five rebounds), the freshman phenom scored 16 points Saturday against the Badgers.
It wasn't an outstanding performance, but he flashed more of his potential once again. One NBA scout explained that Towns' less-than-stellar game won't affect his contention for the top pick.
"Towns was solid. Showed his ability to score when they throw him the ball," the scout told ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman. "His last game didn't do anything to hurt the argument he could go No. 1."
Although he went home from Indy empty-handed, he's still the post player with the most two-way upside in this draft class. Towns' mobility, offensive versatility and defensive tools will be tough to pass up no matter who wins the lottery.
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