UFC Fight Night 63 Predictions: Main Card Staff Predictions
In the shadow of our nation's capital, it's UFC Fight Night 63.
Let Washington, D.C. be a haven of sanity for you in a world run amok in March Madness. Bro, we know you don't want any more college basketball; you want the fights. The fights! And on Saturday, the Patriot Center in the D.C. suburb of Fairfax, Virginia, is going to bring them to you.
You don't even have to fight the traffic on I-66 to get there. You can watch the whole thing on Fox Sports 1, and in the afternoon, no less. Kick your honeydew list to the curb, I say, and settle in for some MMA action.
The main event pits two outstanding featherweights, Chad Mendes and Ricardo Lamas, against each other. Though it hasn't been officially confirmed, the winner would appear to have an inside track to a title shot.
But there's more. In the co-main event, lightweights Jorge Masvidal and Al Iaquinta square off. Neither of those guys has ever met a fight he didn't like.
There is plenty of action up and down the 10-fight slate. And as always, our staff predictions team is here to breakdown and pick the winners of the entire main card. You know the group: Craig "Early Bird" Amos. Sean "Salmon" Smith. Riley "Kobra" Kontek. James "The Librul" MacDonald. And myself, truly yours, as always, Scott Harris. Let's get it on.
Staff Records Year to Date
1 of 7
Ever since I cut eye holes in the bag, it's been a lot easier to check my phone.
At least ol' "Live Blog" is still ranked below me.
Riley Kontek: 31-15
James MacDonald: 29-17
Sean Smith: 29-17
Scott Harris: 26-20
Craig Amos: 24-22
Dustin Poirier vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira
2 of 7
Craig Amos
This one could be closer than people think. Dustin Poirier has solid wrestling, but Carlos Diego Ferreira is a frustrating grinder and has power in his hands despite average technique. He does get tired, though, and Poirier could outpoint him or finish late.
Poirier, TKO, Rd. 3
Riley Kontek
I don't like this fight for the main reason that I think the UFC should be building up Ferreira slowly. He has great potential, but I don't think this matchup favors him. Poirier is a superior striker and will likely be able to defend his takedowns.
Poirier, TKO, Rd. 2
James MacDonald
It will be interesting to see how the loss to Conor McGregor has affected Poirier, if at all. There was a lot of hype behind that fight, and it turned out to be a veritable squash match—in a pro wrestling, not a racquet sport, sense. Ferreira has a decent ceiling on his potential, but Poirier may be a little too well-rounded for the former Legacy FC lightweight champ.
Poirier, TKO, Rd. 3
Sean Smith
Poirier has more weapons than Ferreira does, but the Brazilian is an excellent grappler and could cause problems stylistically. Defensive wrestling has been one of Poirier's bigger weaknesses, and moving up in weight isn't likely to help that. So if Ferreira can get this fight to the ground, there's a good chance he'll be able to mount an upset.
Ferreira, Unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Moving up a weight class won't help Poirier with one of his key improvement areas: sometimes, he gets a little wild in there. Ferreira is known mainly as a grappler, but he also has real power in his hands. If Poirier overcommits or leaves an opening, the Brazilian prospect will slam through it. In fact, why don't you go ahead and sound the upset alarms.
Ferreira, Submission, Rd. 2
Clay Guida vs. Robbie Peralta
3 of 7
Amos
Robbie "Problems" Peralta is dangerous, albeit inconsistent, but Clay Guida has the type of smothering style to really limit his offense. Despite holding a 2-4 record after his last six fights, Guida should prevail here. If he doesn't, he's in some deep trouble.
Guida, Unanimous decision
Kontek
Guida is certainly past his prime, but these are the type of fights this wild man can win. Peralta will try to make this a boxing match, but Guida's wrestling is the difference. He has cardio for days, which will make the difference when he goes for relentless takedowns.
Guida, Unanimous Decision
MacDonald
Guida’s wrestling and his limitless gas tank mean he is in with a chance against all but the very best in the division. I can’t see Peralta keeping this one on the feet consistently enough to outscore the Carpenter. Look for Guida to grind this one out.
Guida, Unanimous Decision
Smith
Despite losing to Thiago Tavares in his most recent appearance, Peralta is being given a crack at a ranked featherweight. Guida poses some of the same problems to Peralta that Tavares did, though. The veteran should be able to get this fight to the ground and grind out a win.
Guida, Unanimous decision
Harris
The sheer force of human nature urges me to pick against any fighters whose output hits its peak before they reach the prep point. But my cognitive mind resists. Guida minces the brawler Peralta to mashed potatoes against the fence.
Guida, Unanimous decision
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Julianna Pena vs. Milana Dudieva
4 of 7
Amos
Julianna Pena finally gets back to work after winning The Ultimate Fighter. She'll take on a promotional newcomer riding a three-fight win streak. There are a lot of variables at play here, between Pena's layoff and limited experience and Milana Dudieva's unfamiliarity with the Octagon.
Pena, Unanimous decision
Kontek
I may be in the minority here, but I think that Dudieva has a superb chance of winning. Pena is coming off a horrid leg injury, a major layoff and has yet to pass a major test. This bout is most definitely a coin toss. Dudieva will have her moments, but I can see Pena's striking being clean enough to edge out a razor-thin decision.
Pena, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
It’s tough to know what to expect from Pena after such a long layoff. Had her injury not occurred, I would have no hesitation in picking the former TUF winner. Dudieva is a pretty tough test, but I’m still leaning towards Pena.
Pena, TKO, Rd. 3
Smith
It's unfortunate that it's taken Pena this long to get back into the Octagon after winning TUF 18, but she still has huge potential and could become a bantamweight contender. Rust is a concern, but Pena is the more talented fighter in this matchup. She should win with her wrestling.
Pena, Unanimous decision
Harris
Pena's time off will not help her, but it also won't hurt her in the main area that will win her this fight: size and her strength. Dudieva is a capable submission grappler, but she won't be able to impose her will on the bigger, stronger and more athletic Pena.
Pena, Unanimous decision
Michael Chiesa vs. Mitch Clarke
5 of 7
Amos
Mitch Clarke is coming off a big win over Al Iaquinta, but whether that kind of performance is something he can replicate remains to be seen. He can grasp serious momentum by beating Michael Chiesa, but that'll be a tall order.
Chiesa, Unanimous decision
Kontek
Clarke with the MMA Lab may be a deadly combo for this Canadian fighter, but I don't see him thriving here. Constant pressure and a grinding style make Chiesa a tough matchup for most at 155 pounds. I can definitely see a class Chiesa performance full of clinch, top position and impressive control.
Chiesa, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
Chiesa has a relentless grinding style that isn’t pretty to watch, but it sure is effective. I have a feeling his pressure will overwhelm Clarke. Don’t expect any performance bonuses here; Chiesa will be Chiesa and grind this one out.
Chiesa, Unanimous decision
Smith
Coming off of a win over the now-ranked Al Iaquinta, Clarke is one of the more underrated competitors in the lightweight division. That being said, Chiesa has shown a lot of potential against some tough opponents. It won't be as easy as some might expect, but Chiesa should get back on track in this matchup.
Chiesa, Unanimous decision
Harris
Chiesa's a little unorthodox in there—unorthodox like a fox. Clarke probably has a boxing edge overall, but Chiesa can still rock him with a big hook or two. I also think Clarke is a good grappler, but Chiesa will push a stronger pace and take Clarke's back more than once. Chiesa will be the more impressive of the two.
Chiesa, Unanimous decision
Jorge Masvidal vs. Al Iaquinta
6 of 7
Amos
This should be a competitive fight. Both men have looked good of late, and each is riding a three-fight win streak. Jorge Masvidal will need to close the distance, clinch, get some takedowns and damage Al Iaquinta on the mat. I think he'll do just enough of those things to win.
Masvidal, Unanimous decision
Kontek
Iaquinta's progression has been quite impressive since his stint on TUF 15, and he's beaten some great fighters. However, I don't think he's going to be able to deal with the all-round aggression, toughness and well-roundedness of Masvidal. Masvidal has improved immensely since coming to the UFC, especially in his areas of weakness. That's why he will win here.
Masvidal, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
Fun fight. Both Masvidal and Iaquinta are almost always a joy to watch. The former can be a little inconsistent at times, but I firmly believe he’s one of the best in the division when on his game. Iaquinta has lots of potential and has an aesthetically pleasing style. The experienced Masvidal may be a little too much for the Serra-Longo protege, though.
Masvidal, Unanimous decision
Smith
Ranked No. 14 and No. 15 in the lightweight division, Masvidal and Iaquinta are very evenly matched. Both are well-rounded fighters, but Masvidal's reach advantage and underrated wrestling should allow him to edge Iaquinta on the scorecards. While Iaquinta will be solid for a long time in the lightweight class, I don't see him being quite ready to make a run at a title shot.
Masvidal, Unanimous decision
Harris
Neither of these guys knows how to back down from a fight, and even if they did, they still wouldn't. Iaquinta is a very good boxer with very good takedown defense. Masvidal has underrated boxing and outstanding wrestling and grappling. Something has to give, and I think that something is Iaquinta. Masvidal will take him down or clinch him up, and therein will be the difference.
Masvidal, Unanimous decision
Chad Mendes vs. Ricardo Lamas
7 of 7
Amos
Chad Mendes lost to Jose Aldo for a second time last October, which puts him in a tough position. A tough opponent such as Ricardo Lamas will test his mental fortitude as much as his physical ability, so it will be important for him to stay focused despite multiple losses to the division champion.
Mendes, Unanimous decision
Kontek
This is an incredibly close matchup and should be a great fight. Their wrestling will likely cancel out, making this primarily a fisticuff. Their striking is close, but I trust Mendes should be able to get the better of Lamas in a close decision.
Mendes, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
This is a terrific matchup. Both Mendes and Lamas are very good MMA wrestlers, so this may end up being a stand-up affair. The Team Alpha Male standout is built like a troll, but he seems to have no trouble getting inside on opponents. Lamas is a good striker, but Mendes’ stand-up game has blossomed in the last couple of years. He also has the power advantage, so the smart money is on Mendes re-establishing his place at the head of the chasing pack.
Mendes, Unanimous decision
Smith
While Mendes looked much better in his latest bout with Jose Aldo than Lamas did, I think these two match up pretty well. Lamas should be able to hang with Mendes in all areas. That said, I do think Mendes will be a step ahead no matter where this bout goes and should remain unbeaten against anybody not named Aldo.
Mendes, Unanimous decision
Harris
Mendes can probably beat just about any featherweight except Aldo. Lamas can probably beat just about any featherweight except Aldo or Mendes. I don't believe Lamas will be able to take Mendes down, and I don't see him getting the better of Mendes in scrambles or on the feet. This battle will start a little slow, but Mendes will come on strong and prove himself to be the better athlete and fighter of these two terrific talents.
Mendes, Unanimous decision
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