How Notre Dame Can Reach the BCS Championship Game

For the first time in recent memory, a national commentator paid to make predictions has placed the Irish in the BCS Championship Game.

That commentator was former Notre Dame coach Lou Holtz, which somewhat diminishes the weight of the prediction (as well as leads to questions regarding Lou's sanity and/or sobriety).

However, the question remains...

Is it possible?

Forget for a moment the plausibility, but from a sheer logistical standpoint, what would have to happen to land the Irish in the BCS Championship game this year?

With very strong conferences in the Big 12 and SEC, winning all 12 scheduled games may not be enough to get a 23rd-ranked Notre Dame into the dance. If Texas or Oklahoma comes out of the Big 12 undefeated, and Florida runs the table, even a dominant 12-0 Irish team is relegated to the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl.

To get there at all, the Irish need a little help from their friends.

First and foremost, they have to win.

They have to have throttled Nevada, Michigan, Purdue, and Washington, and have beaten Michigan State by any margin heading into the Oct. 17 clash with USC.

The Trojans have to have beaten Ohio State and enter the game undefeated and highly ranked. Notre Dame has to win the game. A loss to USC keeps Notre Dame in the "not ready" category and would immediately place the Irish behind every other major conference one-loss team, as well as Utah and/or Boise State.

The one game that Notre Dame could potentially lose and still find consideration is Boston College, if and only if the Eagles end the season ranked in the top 15 and in the ACC title game. I feel that a loss drops the Blue and Gold from any title contention, but the argument should be posed.

Notre Dame must build momentum throughout the rest of the season, beating Washington State and Navy easily before meeting a hopefully ranked Pittsburgh team at Heinz Field.

The Irish must perform well and beat Pitt at home before protecting home field against Connecticut.

The Irish must close strong and avoid a potential pitfall against a tough Stanford team in Palo Alto, beating the Cardinal soundly to impress voters and finish 11-1 or 12-0.

In addition to the Irish taking care of business, Notre Dame's title hopes revolve around the Ohio State Buckeyes more than any other team in NCAA Bowl Subdivision play.

Ohio State shares four opponents with the Irish. Of those four, Ohio State must beat three handily (Navy, Michigan, and Purdue) and lose at home to USC. Oddly, thanks to Big Ten schedule rotations, the Buckeyes avoid Michigan State this year.

Ohio State also has to beat Penn State and secure a league championship, finishing no worse than 10-2. Therefore, by beating USC, Notre Dame has a leg up on the eventual Big Ten and Pac-10 champions, who may finish with an equal or better record than the Irish.

The reverse could happen if Penn State beats the Buckeyes but loses to Michigan State, but for simplicity, we'll stick with the Ohio State strategy.

The waters muddy when looking at the Big 12.

Someone is more than likely coming out undefeated. Notre Dame has to hope that last year repeats itself and the winner of the Texas-Oklahoma game is upset late in the year.

If the Irish fall to BC, you also need the winner of the Big 12 North to upset either the Longhorns or Sooners in the Big 12 Championship game.

You almost have to have someone stumble in the Big 12, because Florida will more than likely run the table and emerge from the SEC again. It is also unlikely that a one-loss Irish team gets picked in front of a one-loss team from the Big 12 or SEC, further reinforcing my belief that Notre Dame must win out.

It is also a must that Notre Dame's opponents, most thought to be soft and mushy, have better-than-expected seasons.

Nevada needs to do very well in the WAC, if possible beating Boise State. Michigan has to win seven games. Pitt or UConn needs to win the Big East. Navy needs to end up back in a bowl game, and Stanford must make a bowl as well.

If Notre Dame runs the table, and everyone from the Big 12 loses a game, it is possible. 

If Notre Dame finishes 11-1, losing to only Boston College, who wins the ACC, and has Nevada win the WAC, USC win the Pac-10, Ohio State win the Big Ten having lost to USC and anyone else, Pittsburgh win the Big East, AND the Big 12 winner lose the conference championship finishing with two losses, it is also possible.

The most likely scenario finding Notre Dame in the BCS championship game has the calendar reading 2010. Notre Dame will have a solid shot at landing in a BCS bowl game at the end of the 2009 season, but its big time talent and emerging depth are still probably a year from reaching their true potential.

Lou Holtz did exactly what he is supposed to do by picking the Irish to arrive in the Championship game this year—he got people talking about college football at the height of the NFL preseason. The impending "are you crazy" argument with Mark May has to have increased ESPN's College GameDay rating by 10 points alone.

No one should expect Notre Dame to be in Pasadena, CA this Jan. 7. It is much more likely they are there for the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1.

Nonetheless, despite its glaring improbability, should all the stars align and all the right teams lose, it could happen.