NBA Pre-Playoff Panic Meter: 6 Contenders in Serious Danger
Fire up those NBA playoff panic meters. It's high time we sound the alarm for the array of postseason contenders in danger of early-round collapses.
Late-season anxiety does not only extend to the teams battling for a playoff spot. Postseason locks are sometimes on equal edge as they try to stave off or escape stock-spoiling ruts.
These are those teams. This is their story.
And these are their worries.
Ensuing squads are all playoff-bound, struggling and presented in order of the likelihood that they'll be bounced in the first round. Some of them are championship contenders; some aren't. All of them are navigating choppy waters and seeing their playoff standing—record, seeding, offensive and defensive performance, etc.—suffer significantly.
Panic levels will also account for potential first-round opponents, conference disparity, and, most importantly, a team's ability to right its growing list of wrongs.
Brace yourselves. It's time to dole out the not-so-feel-goods.
Toronto Raptors
1 of 6
Panic Level: Medium ("Thank Heavens for the Washington Wizards.")
So much for the Toronto Raptors flirting with the Eastern Conference's second-best record.
After a blistering start to the season, the Raptors have cooled off considerably. Although they remain within striking distance of the third-place Chicago Bulls, it looks like they better get comfortable in fourth, as well as with the first-round playoff exit their midseason downswing promises.
This goes beyond Kyle Lowry's back issues. If he's not fully healthy once the postseason rolls around, the Raptors aren't even close to a legitimate threat. But he alone isn't necessarily enough to keep them competitive.
There's little to worry about offensively. The Raptors are still pumping in 108 points per 100 possessions, tying them with the Cleveland Cavaliers for the league's third-best attack. That number actually climbs when Lowry is off the floor.
Defense is the smoking gun by which the Raptors will fall. They rank 25th in points allowed per 100 possessions on the season and are even worse this side of the trade deadline, checking in at 26th through their last 21 contests.
These longstanding defensive warts are costing them games. They're winless in their last eight tilts against top-10 offenses and 2-10 since Feb. 20 when facing opponents above .500.
To advance in the playoffs, even in the Eastern Conference, the Raptors need to beat good teams consistently—something they're not doing now, and, as their 14-21 record versus winning squads shows, haven't done all season.
Memphis Grizzlies
2 of 6
Panic Level: High ("Please, oh Please, Keep the San Antonio Spurs Away!")
What puts the Memphis Grizzlies in a more dire state than the immensely inferior Raptors? A few things.
First off, they play in a Western Conference where the chances of a first-round exit are higher than normal for pretty much everyone, thanks to a buffet of brutal competition.
To that end, the Grizzlies seem to be on a collision course with the San Antonio Spurs. You get the sense that if they finish with the No. 2 seed, the Spurs will fall to No. 7. If they finish third, the Spurs will stay in sixth place. It's a working theory, but a viable one. And remember, you never, ever bet against the Spurs—unless they're playing the Golden State Warriors.
Mostly, though, the Grizzlies just look war-worn. They own the West's eighth-best record since Feb. 1 and end the month of March with a net rating (0.1) that ranks 10th in the conference.
If there's a saving grace, it's their ability to get up for big games. Amid this weeks-long decline, they're still sporting a winning record against fellow Western Conference playoff contingents.
Nevertheless, their offense is back to being jagged and disjointed after spending a bulk of the season hovering near top-10 territory. The Grizzlies are 14th in points scored per 100 possessions overall and 22nd since March 1, and they're second-most used lineup is a net minus on both ends of the floor.
None of which is ideal or even OK this late in the season, knowing their first-round foe—Spurs or not—will at the very least rank as a dark-horse title contender.
Portland Trail Blazers
3 of 6
Panic Level: Medium ("Is It Too Late to Become an Eastern Conference Playoff Team?")
A four-game winning streak is keeping the Portland Trail Blazers' panic meter at bay, but they're far from safe.
Not one of their last four victories has come against a playoff-bound outfit, and they're a significantly weaker team without Wesley Matthews. They're struggling to play .500 basketball, and though their offense is surviving without him, the defense is the sixth worst in the league since he last played.
In no way, shape or form is Matthews' absence a blessing disguised as doom. The Blazers are shallow enough and don't need to carry on without their third-leading scorer to know that the bench, for all its improvements, is middle of the road at best.
Instead of addressing the depth issue as an offensive nexus for the second unit, Arron Afflalo is now starting in Matthews' stead. The newfangled starting five of LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Robin Lopez, Nicolas Batum and Afflalo, while pleasing on paper, is still trying to figure things out defensively and remains a net minus when on the floor.
If the playoffs started today, the Blazers would meet the fifth-place Los Angeles Clippers, whom they have played tightly all season. They're 1-2 when facing them, but each game has been decided by no more than six points.
Losing home-court advantage through the first round is what kills the Blazers. While their chokehold on the Northwest Division guarantees them a top-four seed, their record is worse than Los Angeles', bilking them of a much-needed edge.
Only the Atlanta Hawks and Golden State Warriors have a better home record than the Blazers. With competition fierce across the West, an extra game on friendly grounds can be the difference in a series. And if the Blazers fail to regain that advantage, their postseason path will be even more conducive to the first-round exit that they'll have trouble fending off no matter what.
Washington Wizards
4 of 6
Panic Level: High ("We Are the 2014 Indiana Pacers...Minus the Hope of an Eastern Conference Finals Appearance.")
Never before has the Wizards' second-round ceiling seemed more ambitious. At this rate, they'll be lucky to make it out the first round.
Another early playoff exit is the price of keeping a middling core intact. The Wizards didn't swing for the fences over the offseason. They re-signed Marcin Gortat and replaced Trevor Ariza with an aging Paul Pierce. They are more or less the same team from 2013-14.
That, or they're much worse.
Many will be quick to point out that the Wizards are on pace to secure more victories than last season. Relative to the talent on hand and the state of the Eastern Conference, though, they're underachieving.
With John Wall, Bradley Beal, Nene, Gortat and Pierce all in tow, the Wizards should not rank in the bottom half of offensive efficiency. And yet, they do. They should not be 2-8 against winning teams since Feb. 1. And yet, they are.
Inside 10 contests left to play, the Wizards are locked into the East's No. 5 spot. Three games separate them from the No. 4 slot, so their prospects of moving up are finished. Kaput. Dunzo.
Relief isn't found in their potential first-round opponent, either. The Raptors are dominating the Wizards this season; hence the reason they fall so low on our meter. They're 3-0 against Washington, and their offense is, you know, actually competent. Nothing good, then, can come of the position the Wizards find themselves in.
"What it ends with is a wasted season, since Washington won't get out of the second round in the event they even make it that far," wrote SB Nation's Tom Ziller. "They'll fall short of expectations and again be forced to consider whether to embrace stability or pull the trigger on a change."
Owners of a 3-10 record against the East's top four seeds, with a post-All-Star break net rating worse than that of the Los Angeles Lakers, there is no reason to believe in the Wizards anymore—unless you believe they're fated for first-round failure.
Milwaukee Bucks
5 of 6
Panic Level: Relatively Low ("We're Here by Accident!")
Planning for the future is leaving the Milwaukee Bucks in a bind.
No, they're not in immediate danger of missing the playoffs. That's the luxury of playing in a baseborn Eastern Conference.
But the Bucks have the NBA's fifth-worst net rating since the trade deadline. Only the Orlando Magic, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Minnesota Timberwolves fall lower on the scale.
Not only does the Bucks' typically stingy defense rank outside the top 10 over this span, but their frequently feckless offense is flirting with bottom-two status. They're also 1-11 when facing teams above .500—their lone win coming over the newly woeful Wizards.
Once viewed as the East's only potential dark horse, the Bucks are fast becoming first-round formalities. Michael Carter-Williams is still shooting under 40 percent from the floor, Jerryd Bayless and Jared Dudley are regressing to the mean after (semi-)hot starts and the rotation remains packed with too many self-sufficient scorers.
At the moment, the Bucks are on course to face the Bulls in the first round. But with only 1.5 games between them and the seventh-place Miami Heat, there's still a chance they meet the Cavaliers.
“Sometimes you’ve got to look in front of you," head coach Jason Kidd said of Milwaukee's post-deadline struggles, per The Brooklyn Game's Devin Kharpertian. "We’re here to build something, not to do something in six months. This is a bigger picture, so we feel that we have a core here that will be around a long time and have success.”
Good on Kidd for pumping the brakes, because as of now, there isn't a feasible scenario in which the Bucks make it out of the first round. The Bulls are getting healthy, and the Cavaliers have the Association's second-best record since beginning the season 19-20.
Barring a fate-jarring turn of events, Milwaukee's immediate picture ends with a first-round exit.
Dallas Mavericks
6 of 6
Panic Level: Super High ("We're So Not Making It out of the First Round.")
The Dallas Mavericks' roller-coaster season continues.
Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News perfectly encapsulates their current state:
"The cold, hard fact is that the Mavericks now are as close to eighth place in the West as they are to sixth. Wednesday’s visit to Oklahoma City, currently the No. 8 seed, could go a long way toward determining who ends up seventh and eighth.
The state of flux that the Mavericks are in right now runs deep.
They are finding it harder and harder to explain what’s going wrong as they realize every mistake can be the reason they are losing games at a rapid clip.
"
Pretenders. That's what the Mavericks are becoming. That's what they've been. They are 8-15 versus fellow Western Conference playoff teams and have seen their hopes of vaulting up the standings dissipate in detrimental fashion.
Remember their defense-eviscerating offense? The one that, at one point, was on pace to be the best ever? It's gone. The Mavericks are fielding a bottom-eight attack since March 1 to go along with a 6-7 record and a net rating that fails to match those of the Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers.
Dropping to eighth place in the West is now a distinct possibility. The Mavericks' lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder is just three games—a cushion that is no longer comfortable.
Then again, the extent of their slide doesn't really matter. Eighth place, seventh place—whatever. Their most likely playoff opponents are either the Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors or Memphis Grizzlies, against whom they're a combined 2-9. So while the Mavericks' playoff ticket is punched, it won't get them far. Theirs is a journey slated to end quickly.
As in immediately.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate heading into games on March 31.
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