Should Washington Wizards Worry About Bradley Beal's Slow Development?
Just because Bradley Beal isn't fully developed doesn't mean he isn't continuing to grow.
The 21-year-old Washington Wizards shooting guard hasn't taken a major leap forward during his third professional season, but that doesn't mean he's taken a step back, either. Yet the casual fan is starting to jump on him.
Is it just because the scoring averages are slightly down?
The Case Against Beal
To give that assessment some credence, Beal's points per game (or even points per 36 minutes) declining may be more symbolic than it is symptomatic. He's not necessarily a worse scorer. He hasn't lost skill or ability or shooting touch. He does, though, seem less aggressive at times.
Statistically, Beal—who isn't top-of-the-line efficient because of his inability to get to the line—is having his most economical scoring season. But the missed shots come at more noticeable moments.
Beal is shooting just 36 percent from the field in the fourth quarter, easily the worst of any period. He's at 29 percent from three in the fourth, unsurprisingly his worst period from long range as well. The problem magnifies itself since Beal actually uses more possessions in the final quarter than during any other one.
But such issues are perfectly common (and more than fixable) in a kid who's young enough to be in the same grade as Justin Bieber.
It is partly Beal's fault that expectations advanced so quickly. He was, after all, touting the Wizards backcourt as the NBA's best in the preseason, starting a war of words with then-Cleveland Cavalier Dion Waiters over which team owned the league's most dominant point guard-shooting guard combination.
So, people got excited, and after a confounding second half from Washington, which has dropped 18 of its past 28 games, they've turned. Injury issues haven't helped Beal either. He's missed time this year with wrist, fibula and ankle injuries and has shot 6 percentage points worse from long range since returning from the fibula on Feb. 28.
The Case for Beal
In actuality, Beal hasn't regressed, though. His basketball intelligence is gradually growing, and his on-floor effectiveness is still apparent.
Near the end of last year, he started to become a more competent pick-and-roll ball-handler, morphing into a decent option as a secondary facilitator for Washington. This year, he's still learning how to score while dribbling around ball screens, but his smarts have continued to progress.
He's distributing better out of such sets than he has before, especially of late, possibly a positive response to his discomfort as a shooter after coming back from injury.
Beal's presence is still integral within the Wizards lineup. As Krishna Narsu pointed out in The Washington Post, his mere shooting ability (he's still at a career-high 42 percent from three) opens up the floor for his teammates enough to change the offense completely:
"When Beal is on the court, the average closest defender distance on his teammates’ shots is 4.19 [feet] compared with 4.16 when he is off the court. That difference may not look significant but it becomes more pronounced when we look at that same metric on attempts in the restricted area, the portion of the key denoted by an arc in the painted area that is positioned four feet from the basket: 2.78 feet with Beal on the court, 2.48 when he is off.
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Beal's absence has a major effect on Wall too. As Narsu noted,
"Wall in particular sees more defensive attention when Beal is riding shotgun (closest defender is 4.3 feet away on average versus 4.6 without Beal). Wall also takes tougher shots, shooting from an average distance of 14.8 feet with Beal on the bench opposed to 13.9 feet when they share the backcourt.
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Beal is still essential. The Wizards are a whopping 8.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor. And yet, fans are disappointed that he isn't cresting.
Modern-Day Expectations
Blame it on the Internet age, an era of immediate satisfaction, but we now live in a world of impatience. If we don't get what we want right when we want it, we become instantly disappointed. That sort of attitude has certainly affected the reputations of plenty of young athletes.
Blake Griffin was a letdown because he "couldn't shoot" even though he was a big man in his early 20s still learning how to dominate at his sport's highest level. Now, he's a consistent jump-shooter from mid-range.
John Wall was all speed and all athleticism but didn't have a feel for how to play the game or run an offense. In related news, he was a just-out-of-college point guard who should never have had such high immediate expectations thrust upon him.
The hate train always comes after jumping on the bandwagon early too. There's a swing that happens at some point.
Griffin was beloved during his rookie season. Everyone wanted in on the Blake show. People went out of their way to see the Mozgovian moments.
Same with Wall.
The first year or so in the NBA was kind to the Wizards point guard. He was an exciting, athletic freak who was already arguably the fastest player in the league. He was a must-watch, even if he wasn't shooting threes or always making the right play. He was only 20 years old, but he was fun.
But fun goes away with heavy criticism, and such critiques have a way of lasting even longer than they deserve.
After the public sees a brilliant rookie season, expectations readjust. Guys like Wall and Griffin came into the league with glittering forecasts which heightened after quick starts to their careers. And even though Beal wasn't a No. 1 overall pick like those two previously mentioned players, expectations were high.
He still went third overall, and outlooks got even higher during the preseason when debate sparked over the best backcourts in the NBA. The clear and obvious answer is now the one belonging to the Golden State Warriors, but even at the time that argument was going on around basketball fans, Washington's backcourt never should have been in the conversation.
We saw Beal's fancy points-per-game total from last season (17.1) along with his outrageous three-point shooting (which is still just as wonderful, by the by) and figured he and Wall were on the way up. They were 21 and 24 years old respectively coming into the season. Progression seemed inevitable.
It still does. It's just not happening quickly enough for the public to care.
So we see statements like "Beal has fallen off" or "Beal isn't good enough" or "Beal isn't as dominant as he should be," when in reality, he's performing just fine, especially once you factor in the injury issues. Even Beal himself has been critical.
“My game definitely has to escalate,” Beal said to Michael Lee of The Washington Post. “And it has to escalate now. I know it starts with John [Wall] and [me]. I have to definitely step up my play. He's been playing well all year and I've been on a roller coaster. I definitely have to be aggressive and be the star that people think I should be.”
That's the short-term player talking, though, the one who sees his team sliding and thinks he should be doing more to help. Many players think like that, even if the blame shouldn't be placed on them.
Beal's development seems right on track. Actually, Michael D. Sykes of Bullets Forever recently pointed out the stunning similarity between Beal's numbers the last two years and Klay Thompson's during his first three before the Warriors 2-guard made "the leap" this year.
Beal's just as accurate a long-range shooter, assuming this recent "dry spell" is because of the fibula, actually one of the few legitimate reasons to worry since this is hardly the first time he's suffered this injury. But he's still producing quality, mostly consistent basketball.
Beal is heading in the right direction. It might just take him a little longer to become a finished product than people want.
Follow Fred Katz on Twitter at @FredKatz.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are current as of March 30 and are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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