Why Vernon Davis Is the San Francisco 49ers' Best Remaining Bargaining Chip

The cupboard at San Francisco 49ers headquarters is almost bare at the moment. Thanks to retirements and free-agency hits, the 49ers don’t have the sort of established depth that would cause other teams to drool over players that San Francisco doesn’t need anymore. The 49ers have needs almost uniformly across the board, so there’s not a lot of expendable dead weight to cut.

However, with draft season rapidly approaching, speculation of trades has begun to reach a fever pitch. While it’s most likely that any draft-day maneuverings by the 49ers would just include draft picks, there’s always the chance of a draft-day trade that sends a veteran player packing in exchange for more picks. Specifically, they could end up adding talent at a position that would make someone expendable.

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This is how the 49ers ended up with Stevie Johnson last season; Johnson became unnecessary in Buffalo when they traded up to grab Sammy Watkins in the first round. San Francisco was able to grab him for a mid-round pick before Day 2 of the draft, whereas he would not have been available before the draft began.  While the trade didn’t exactly work out fantastically for the 49ers, the theory is sound.

If they were to be on the other side of a deal like that in 2015, who would be the best bargaining chip? Who could they deal to free some salary-cap space and get a mid-round draft pick in return?

The best answer for this question is, I think, Vernon Davis, although this is specifically the worst possible time to try to trade him. Davis is coming off of his worst season since he was a rookie, having caught only 26 passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns in an ineffective, and occasionally injury-plagued, season.

Still, it wasn’t that long ago Davis was a top tight end in the league. Remember, he made the Pro Bowl in 2013, catching more than 50 passes and performing fantastically in the run-blocking game as well. While neither of those traits showed themselves in 2014, it’s certainly possible that a team would take a flier on a player who was a top-10 tight end in 2012 and 2013.

At the same time, you could see why the 49ers would be interested in moving on from Davis. He is 31 years old, so he’s going to be entering the decline phase of his career, if he hasn’t already. He’s going to cost nearly $7 million against the cap in 2015 according to Spotrac, making him the fourth-most expensive player on the roster. He only has one more year on his deal as well, so the 49ers may very well move on from him after this season anyway. If the 49ers could get some good value out of him, there are several reasons to make a trade.

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According to Benjamin Allbright of Mile High Sports, the Denver Broncos contacted San Francisco about the possibility of a trade for Davis and were rebuffed. Trent Baalke has also said that Davis will “absolutely” be back with the 49ers in 2015. 

At this point, that’s probably the right move. Behind Davis, the 49ers have a number of interesting young players, including Vance McDonald and Derek Carrier, but no one proven to be able to step up into Davis’ role. If they lost Davis, they would have no one on the roster who has shown they can be a pass-catching threat at the position.

However, let’s fast-forward to May 1 and the second day of the draft. With the 49ers on the clock in the third round, they could take Clive Walford out of Miami or Jeff Heuerman out of Ohio State. Walford would be a great choice, as he has impressive acceleration and reliable hands and is able to create mismatches thanks to his athleticism.

If the 49ers took Walford, all of a sudden, you’re looking at a very packed class of tight ends. McDonald, Carrier and Garrett Celek would all be battling for roster spots as well, and all of them would be 27 years old or younger. All of a sudden, an aging, possibly declining Davis doesn’t seem to be as much of a fit on the roster.

The 49ers could then try to sell other teams on the fact that a change of scenery could revitalize Davis, returning him to his form of the previous two seasons. Perhaps the Broncos would still be interested, even though they already signed Owen Daniels this offseason—I’m sure Davis would love to catch passes from Peyton Manning for a season. The Atlanta Falcons have also never really replaced Tony Gonzalez, so they’re another option, despite signing Tony Moeaki and Jacob Tamme already this offseason.

In exchange, the 49ers could either ask for a mid-round pick in the 2016 draft, much like the Bills did for Stevie Johnson last year, or they could see if they could add some depth at a weak position like inside linebacker. Moving a player like Davis from a position that would be glutted in this scenario to shore up depth at a position that isn’t as solid is always a positive move.

Do I think San Francisco will trade Davis on draft day? All in all, no. While Baalke’s statements could be a smokescreen to hide future plans, I choose to take them more or less at face value; the 49ers could have easily traded or released Davis already if they had already decided to move on from him. Perhaps it’s the 49ers themselves who believe that Davis will bounce back to his 2012-2013 form and are thus willing to take the risk, rather than going with unproven players.

Still, it wouldn’t be the most shocking move ever if the situation changed dramatically during the draft. If they use a mid-round pick on a tight end, watch out for potential Davis trades. It’s a logical move that would both free up cap space and roster space while providing the 49ers some sort of return before Davis becomes a free agent in 2016.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.