2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Detroit Lions Stars

The theme in 2015 is improvement for the Detroit Lions fantasy football stars. Golden Tate, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson must coalesce in the second year of head coach Jim Caldwell’s tenure to reach their massive offensive potential.

Detroit finished a disappointing 22nd in scoring—17th in standard-fantasy points—in Caldwell and first-time offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s inaugural season with the Lions. It’s the first time the Lions finished outside the top 20 since 2009—Stafford’s rookie year.

All Pro defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh’s impending free agency dominated general manager Martin Mayhew’s offseason, leaving little time or desire to make any moves for the offense.

That may have been the plan all along considering Detroit’s roster of potential and established fantasy stars is significant.

See who’s who heading into 2015.

Honorable Mentions

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George Winn, RB

Winn saw limited work in 2014 as the fourth running back on Detroit’s depth chart. The second-year reserve out of Cincinnati rose to the third spot upon Reggie Bush’s release.

He has no fantasy value in 2015 unless more injuries push him into the lineup.

Joseph Fauria, TE

Fauria suffered through an ankle injury all season, making just six catches for 74 yards and a touchdown in 2014.  

The reserve could compete with Brandon Pettigrew for pass routes if healthy in his third season.

Ryan Broyles, WR

Broyles—Detroit’s 2012 second-rounder out of Oklahoma—further regressed in 2014 with just two catches for 25 yards.

Mayhew said Broyles is still the Lions’ top reserve receiver with a chance to prove himself this offseason, according to Tim Twentyman of Detroit Lions.com:

"

I would have loved to have seen him get out on the field and play for us. Unfortunately, there were guys ahead of him, and they stayed relatively healthy for the most part.

The reason why he didn't play was because nobody got hurt. The other guys were featured in our offense, we had plans for those guys in the offense, and he was our first reserve off the bench.

"

Broyles still deserves a spot on dynasty rosters if he beats out Corey Fuller and Jeremy Ross in training camp.

Corey Fuller, WR

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Fuller, a converted quarterback out of Virginia Tech, made a splash in 2014 with 14 receptions for 214 yards and a touchdown.

He was the offense’s most improved player, according to Kyle Meinke of MLive.com: "He was among its most improved players in 2014, eventually winning a roster spot over Kris Durham—the No. 2 receiver from the previous season—and then a playing role over Ryan Broyles—a former second-round draft pick."

Stash Fuller in dynasty leagues, and see what develops.

Jeremy Ross, WR

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Ross spent 2014 a distant third on Detroit’s wide receiver depth chart, hauling in 35 receptions for 314 yards and one touchdown. The Lions re-signed the fourth-year journeyman out of California in March.

Ross led the team in punt and kick returns in 2014.

The third option in an offense as potent as Detroit’s is always intriguing, but only holster Ross in dynasty leagues until his contributions increase.

Brandon Pettigrew, TE

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Pettigrew’s primary role shifted from pass-catcher to blocker in 2014. The six-year veteran posted the lowest numbers of his career—10 receptions, 70 yards and zero touchdowns—reducing his fantasy value to nil.

Mayhew said Pettigrew is capable of more, but the ceiling is lower, according to Tim Twentyman of Detroit Lions.com:

"

He can catch more balls than that, I think. But I don’t see him getting back to a 70-catch season because you have Calvin [Johnson], Golden [Tate], Theo [Riddick], Joique [Bell] and all these guys. So it’s hard to get him that many touches. We had Calvin and him in the passing game at that time he was catching that many balls.

"

Detroit’s 2009 first-round draft pick appears expendable in light of its 2014 first-rounder Eric Ebron. Ebron finished 2014 with 25 catches for 248 yards.

Pettigrew is likely to become a cap casualty in 2016 given just a $2 million hit for his release.

Read between the lines, and ignore Pettigrew in 2015 unless Ebron gets hurt.

Theo Riddick, RB

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Riddick is poised to jump into Reggie Bush’s vacated change-of-pace role in Detroit’s high-octane offense, according to Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com.

The Lions released Bush, who eventually signed with the San Francisco 49ers.

Rothstein quoted Caldwell’s assessment of Riddick, who remains No. 2 on the running back depth chart two weeks into free agency:

"

It depends on what we want to do, but he's capable of carrying it more than what we gave it to him. But he’s also, you can also see his numbers of out of the backfield, catching the ball. Things of that nature, they jump out at you. 

So he's got a unique skill there, but he's also a good ball carrier, so we'll see how that goes.

"

The 2013 sixth-rounder out of Notre Dame should see a big increase in opportunities in 2015 but not enough to lift him above a late-round reserve on draft day.

Eric Ebron, TE

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Many compared Ebron to Jimmy Graham when Detroit drafted him 10th overall in 2014, including Ebron himself, according to Tim Twentyman of Detroit Lions.com.

Perhaps the lone voice of reason, offensive coordinator Lombardi chose to contrast the two instead, per to Twentyman:

"

They are not exactly the same players but they are both very athletic guys. Jimmy has a little bit more length while Eric has a little more quickness.

There are some things that we did with Jimmy in New Orleans that we will be able to do with Eric and maybe some things we can do with Eric that we didn’t do with Jimmy. They are both unique but [Ebron] is going to have a pretty big role in what we plan on doing.

"

But Ebron struggled to compete for catches early on in Detroit’s talent-packed passing game, finishing with 25 receptions for 258 yards and a touchdown.

Mayhew explained Ebron’s rookie difficulties and reconfirmed the organization’s optimism, according to Twentyman:

"

I think he dealt with some typical rookie issues in learning the offense. I think he got a lot better as the season went on, even after the hamstring (which forced him to miss three games).

It may have calmed him down a little bit and I think he played better later in the year. Certainly I would expect better production next year. He’s certainly capable, he certainly has the ability. I think he’s going to be better the second year in our offense. I think a lot of our players are going to be better the second year in our offense and think he’s one of them. I do expect more from him.

"

Ebron certainly has the upside to merit a low-end TE1 selection in 2015.

Joique Bell, RB

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Bell is coming off his best season in the pros with 1,182 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns combined. He sits alone atop Detroit’s running back depth chart after sharing the spotlight with Reggie Bush the last two seasons.

The Lions released Bush, who eventually signed with the San Francisco 49ers.

There is speculation Detroit might use its No. 23 pick on a running back after hosting high-profile candidates such as Georgia’s Todd Gurley, according to Tim Twentyman of Detroit Lions.com.

But Business Insider’s survey of 11 draft experts shows Detroit leaning toward defense or offensive line.

Bell is no stranger to competition, entering the league undrafted in 2010 as a dark horse from the Division II Wayne State Warriors. He’s expected to be ready for OTAs in April after minor offseason surgery on his knee and Achilles, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.

Bell finished 2014 ranked 14th among running backs in fantasy scoring. He’s a bona fide RB2 who will be gone by the third round of most drafts.

Golden Tate, WR

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Tate flourished in his first season with the Lions, leading the team with 99 receptions for 1,331 yards. Both marked career highs, a win-win for Tate and the Lions organization that signed him away from the Seattle Seahawks in 2014.

He proved especially valuable during Calvin Johnson’s absence with a high ankle sprain suffered in Week 5 versus the Buffalo Bills. He caught fire scoring 19, four, 21 and 21 during Weeks 5-9.

The five-year veteran averaged 15.3 fantasy points with Johnson sidelined and 8.1 together in the lineup. There should be more opportunities for Tate to run as Detroit’s WR1 given Johnson’s approaching 30th birthday (September 25) plus his reputation for nagging injuries.

Tate finished 13th in fantasy scoring among wide receivers in 2014, which is a fair indicator of where he should land in 2015.

Draft Tate confidently as a high-end WR2 with the potential to crack the top 10.

Matthew Stafford, QB

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Expectations outpaced results for Stafford in 2014: drafted fifth among quarterbacks on average but finished 15th in fantasy scoring at the position.

Former teammate and retired defensive end Lawrence Jackson tweeted why he thinks Stafford is not yet elite (h/t Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press):

"

I'm not a Stafford hater, I'm a realist. I've seen the inaccuracy and lack of touch when it matters in person with my blood on the line cont

— Lawrence Jackson (@LoJackson94) March 9, 2015"

"

I think Stafford has potential. I saw him work in practice for 3 years. I did not see the work ethic that other great QB's put in.

— Lawrence Jackson (@LoJackson94) March 9, 2015"

"

Yes Stafford had numbers. But a lot of those yards are Hail Mary's to Calvin. I'm not blinded by stats because they are partial portraits.

— Lawrence Jackson (@LoJackson94) March 9, 2015"

"

The reality is he has the talent to be a great QB but hasn't put the mental work it or made the technical improvements needed to be great

— Lawrence Jackson (@LoJackson94) March 9, 2015"

Stafford did not publicly respond to the criticism, but his disappointments are nothing new for fantasy owners waiting for that 2011 encore—5,038 passing yards and 41 touchdowns.

Still, there’s no reason the six-year veteran shouldn’t improve after a full season under Caldwell and Lombardi’s offensive scheme. There’s too much talent on this offense to anticipate anything less than a return to the top 10 among quarterbacks for Stafford.

Calvin Johnson, WR

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Johnson missed the most starts in 2014 (three) since he became a full-time starter in 2008. Injuries are the primary concern for the 29-year-old All Pro, but he’ll be avoiding any offseason surgeries, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press: "Feeling good. Coming along. I'm not 100 [Percent] yet, but that's what the offseason's for, to get right. So reload and get ready for next year."

Johnson still put in a good season, finishing 14th among wide receivers in fantasy scoring with an 11.5-point weekly average. The problem is fantasy owners invested a No. 7 pick for him on average.

Chicago Bears cornerback Spencer Tillman told Kyle Meinke of the Detroit Free Press what he thinks of anyone who doesn’t still consider Johnson the best in the game:

"

They're a bunch of dummies. Trust me. I still think he's a bad ass.

Arguably, the best receiver in the game today, in my opinion. I go against him twice [a season], we match up well. And, yeah, you have to bring your big boy pants when you're going against Calvin Johnson.

"

Megatron is still a top-tier fantasy talent at wide receiver, but it might be time to temper expectations with his 30th birthday approaching in September.

There’s so much depth league-wide at receiver that it’s difficult to endorse taking any in the first round, especially Johnson.

Don’t hesitate if he’s still there in Round 2. Just don’t automatically take him in the first like in years past.

NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference, fantasy stats courtesy of ESPN.com, contract and salary-cap information provided by Over the Cap, and h/t to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.