Projecting San Antonio Spurs' Best and Worst 2015 NBA Playoff Matchups
Welcome to the wild, wild West—ern Conference.
The San Antonio Spurs have slid into the West's sixth position, holding a 44-25 record after winning eight of their last 10 contests.
That standing is sure to fluctuate over the final weeks of the 2014-15 NBA regular season, but we know a few things: San Antonio will not ascend to the No. 1 seed, is extremely unlikely to grab second and is probably safe from falling to eighth.
Barring a complete and utter collapse, the Spurs are locked into the playoffs. The question, however, is who the defending champions will challenge in the opening round, since they could play any of five franchises.
To be the best, you have to beat the best. But that doesn't negate the fact that San Antonio matches up better against some opponents than others.
Best Matchup: Dallas Mavericks
San Antonio's outlook is relatively brutal when the most favorable potential first-round meeting is a team that boasts a 44-27 record. Nevertheless, this is the West the Spurs live in.
The Dallas Mavericks made the season's big-name splash by adding Rajon Rondo, but that move has seemingly caused more problems than success. The deal severely weakened the team's depth, since Jameer Nelson and Brandan Wright were sent away.
While Devin Harris can be a thorn in an opponent's side, he likely cannot play at the necessary level for seven straight games. Amar'e Stoudemire has been a decent replacement, but the veteran isn't the two-way force Wright established himself as this year.
Additionally, San Antonio is best suited to contain Dallas' starting five—which still hasn't quite meshed despite playing alongside each other for three months.
| Before Trade | 19-8 | 113.6 | 105.1 |
| After Trade | 25-19 | 103.5 | 101.7 |
Though Rondo is still a dangerous passer and Tony Parker isn't a great defender, Rondo simply cannot shoot the ball, which makes him a limited offensive weapon.
Monta Ellis and Chandler Parsons are above-average perimeter threats, but Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are well-equipped to contain both players.
Dirk Nowitzki always presents a tough assignment, but any offensive value is essentially negated by his worsening defense. Although Tyson Chandler contributes a stout interior presence, it's nothing Tiago Splitter hasn't handled before.
On paper, San Antonio's starters can take everything Dallas throws at them offensively, which is what has allowed the Mavericks to solidify themselves as a playoff team in the first place.
Now, Dallas is far from an easy out. Rick Carlisle reinforced his elite coaching ability last postseason, taking the Spurs to seven games with a lesser squad.
But the Mavs are the best draw because San Antonio's offense holds a clear advantage and just enough of a defensive edge that, while the series should last at least six games, the Spurs would have an excellent chance to eliminate Dallas.
Worst Matchup: Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies haven't necessarily separated themselves at the No. 2 seed, but time is running out for a Western Conference squad to overtake Dave Joerger's team, which holds a 2.5-game edge on third place.
So, if San Antonio finishes in either the sixth or seventh spot, the Grizz would almost certainly be waiting for the reigning champs. Considering the lineup Memphis employs, the playoff series would be one of 2014-15's most entertaining.
Ironically, this is also Memphis' nightmare scenario because San Antonio has the personnel to match up at every position. But the converse is also undoubtedly true.
"Also if Memphis is facing the Spurs in any matchup, then I’ll panic.
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) March 18, 2015"
The Spurs haven't been able to shut down Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Mike Conley, while they haven't dealt with Jeff Green, who provides a three-point threat and potential second-unit top option if Joerger uses him there. And Tony Allen remains as pesky a defender as ever.
Unlike Dallas, the Grizzlies are terrific on both ends of the floor, ceding just 95.2 points per outing and netting 99.1.
They play at the league's fifth-slowest pace, per NBA.com, so the deliberate nature of Memphis' game limits its opponent's scoring even further and nullifies its lack of points, comparatively speaking. San Antonio prefers a much quicker game, so the Spurs must adjust accordingly.
Plus, San Antonio has defended its home court remarkably well, but the Grizzlies have a one-game edge in that department. Also, at 23-14 away from FedExForum, Memphis boasts the third-best road-win percentage across the Association.
The clubs have already played a few tightly contested tilts—each of which occurred in December—this season: San Antonio won by six in Memphis. Memphis earned a one-point triple-overtime win in San Antonio. Memphis grabbed a 95-87 win at home.
Green wasn't on the Grizzlies roster for any of those clashes. Parker and Leonard weren't healthy for the latter two. Both franchises have proven they can beat each other on the road.
For viewers like you, the matchup is rated E for Everyone. For San Antonio, it's the inevitable series the team would prefer to avoid, even if the players and coaches won't say it publicly.
Unless otherwise noted, stats are courtesy of Basketball-Reference and are accurate as of March 23.
Follow Bleacher Report NBA writer David Kenyon on Twitter: @Kenyon19_BR.
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