Breaking Down the Odds of Each Quarter-Final Team Winning the Champions League
The draw for the Champions League quarter-finals has been made, so it's time to break down each team's chances of going all the way to raise "old big ears."
Some big names have already crashed out of Europe's elite club competition, with all of the Premier League clubs now out of contention.
That said, all the favourites remain, with Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich still vying for glory.
Accompanying them are a number of dark horses such as former European Cup winners FC Porto and Serie A giants Juventus, along with a trio of others.
Here we'll break down each club's strengths and weaknesses as we rank them in descending order of just how likely they are to win.
Disagree with the choices? Feel like your club should have placed higher? Have your say in the comments thread below.
8. AS Monaco
1 of 8
Unsurprisingly, it's Ligue 1 outfit AS Monaco who begin our countdown.
They impressed against Arsenal in the opening leg of their knockout-round tie, looking vibrant and playing with urgency.
Garnering praise from various pundits, L'Equipe even described their 3-1 win as "one of the greatest Champions League performances by a French club" (h/t Tom Williams of AFP).
Frankly, the cash-rich club deserved praise for the manner in which they blasted Arsene Wenger's men out of the competition, but they rested on their laurels.
Failing to really build on that fantastic display, their young team almost got caught out in the second leg.
It was a close scrape with embarrassment.
Thankfully, Olivier Giroud and the rest of the Premier League team fluffed their lines in the closing stages and couldn't find the killer goal.
That put a dampener on Monaco's previous achievements and has cast doubts on their character and mentality.
Facing Juventus, a team with a far more clinical strike force than Wenger's men, they are likely to get found out despite their strong defence.
Nevertheless, they are a young side and the future looks bright for them.
7. FC Porto
2 of 8
Pipping AS Monaco to seventh spot, Porto have surprised many in this season's edition of the Champions League.
Drawn against FC Basel in the last 16, the Primeira Liga outfit made light work of their Swiss opponents in the end with a 4-0 second-leg thumping, and it's their strong finish that gives them the edge ahead of Monaco, who surrendered a two-goal aggregate cushion and had to rely on the away-goals rule to progress.
With lots of fantastic talent in their ranks, Porto could very well cause a shock.
Real Madrid loanee Casemiro, Yacine Brahimi, Danilo and 23-year-old Cristian Tello have all been magnificent for the side, who currently lie second in their domestic league.
Possessing a real threat from long range with some accurate and powerful shooting, they have the potential to push just about anyone.
Need proof? Just take a look at this wondergoal converted by Casemiro in their most recent European outing.
That said, it's highly unlikely that they'll find a way past their quarter-final opponents, Bayern Munich, who are one of the powerhouses of European football, hence why Julen Lopetegui's men place so low down on our list.
6. Paris Saint-Germain
3 of 8
Squeezing past Chelsea on away goals, Paris Saint-Germain earned a hard-fought win against one of the pre-tournament favourites.
Impressing defensively with a large dollop of determination and resolution, they fought to the bitter end and emerged the other side victorious.
Up next for Laurent Blanc's team is a testing battle against Barcelona, whom they already met this season during the group stage.
So far, the record reads one victory apiece, but recent form points to only winner: Barcelona.
Had the draw been more kind to PSG, they could have wormed their way into the last four.
Realistically, though, the French outfit have not impressed enough outside of their resilience to warrant selection as one of the favourites.
Aside from Edison Cavani, their strike force has warbled instead of uniting in glorious song.
In short, they've disappointed on the offensive.
For all the hype surrounding Swedish sensation Zlatan Ibrahimovic, he has only produced two goals in five starts, and he won't find it easy to build on that minuscule tally against Luis Enrique's men.
Once again, it's going to be a season without continental dominance for the cash-rich club.
5. Atletico Madrid
4 of 8
Facing their great cross-town rivals in the last eight, Atletico Madrid face a big task to get to the semi-finals, and it will take a monumental effort for them to do so.
Atleti displayed some enviable spirit and enthusiasm to sneak past Bayer Leverkusen in a dramatic penalty shootout, with Fernando Torres converting the all-important strike.
Based on current form, Diego Simeone's men are not huge favourites to go all the way.
With just one win from their last five matches in all competitions, confidence isn't high in their ability to reach the final for the second consecutive year.
Without a shadow of a doubt, Simeone has worked wonders to remodel their structure and deserves huge credit for the way in which he has guided his team to this stage of the tournament.
Taking El Nino under his wing, the boss has worked his magic once more to breathe new life into a player who had become a joke in the Premier League. Now, the ex-Chelsea man is a real danger inside the 18-yard box.
Having already netted a memorable brace against Los Merengues this year, he is probably their main hope of causing a shock, but that is a slim hope and not something that vindicates them. They will put up a spirited battle against Carlo Ancelotti's charges, but they will exit early.
4. Juventus
5 of 8
For Juventus, it has been 19 years since they last won a European title of note.
Printed in black and white, their relative lack of success in the most prestigious European club competition is really striking.
A late resurgence from Massimiliano Allegri's men, however, has led them to the cusp of greatness once more.
Regaining their confidence after a turbulent group stage, which saw them falter against Atletico Madrid and Olympiacos, the Old Lady find themselves jockeying for position as the best team on the continent.
Make no mistake, Carlos Tevez is sure to play a major role in just how far they go, and they will have enough to see off the challenge of Monaco and make it at least as far as the semi-finals.
From there, much will depend on exactly whom they face and whether instrumental playmaker Paul Pogba can return in time for their potential semi-final showdown.
3. Real Madrid
6 of 8
Rewind to before the new year and Real Madrid would have been pretty much everyone's big favourites for the tournament.
The winds of change have since swept violently through the Bernabeu.
Now, Madrid are a team in disarray.
As ESPN FC's Rob Train pointed out in a recent article, there is nothing in the rumours of a Cristiano Ronaldo-Gareth Bale feud: "Analyze it from whichever angle you choose and there was nothing in Cristiano Ronaldo's non-celebration of Gareth Bale's opener against Levante on Sunday night, other than annoyance that his audacious overhead kick didn't go in."
Though some have insisted on giving weight to it as a major reason behind their reason dip in form, the real point is that they are under far too much scrutiny.
That said, there is still a great deal of tension surrounding their team's play right now.
Fan unrest, a dip in form from their star goalscorer and a brush with an early Champions League exit after a 4-3 home defeat to Schalke has blighted their performances.
The fact that no team has ever successfully defended this crown is evidence enough that Madrid will not become the first to do so despite their incredibly talented side.
2. Bayern Munich
7 of 8
With just one defeat in this season's competition, some might think Die Roten should be top of our list.
One aspect holding them back from running away with this, however, is the fact they haven't yet been properly tested.
Cruising through the group stage, Pep Guardiola's charges took control of proceedings with some scintillating football. Aside from their 3-2 defeat to Manchester City, they were rarely put through their paces.
Even then, that result was a product of having one less man on the field.
Up against Porto, they should receive a thorough examination.
Arjen Robben, Thomas Muller and Mario Gotze will edge that clash for Bayern—marginally. From there, it will be interesting to see how they cope against the bigger guns to come.
Confronting Barcelona will be their undoing. Whenever that clash occurs depends on just how far they go. The neutrals will hope it arrives in the final.
1. FC Barcelona
8 of 8
Fans of Real Madrid will heartily disagree, but Barcelona are the Spanish side to beat heading into the business end of the Champions League.
While Lionel Messi might be equal on goals with Ronaldo in second spot in the scoring charts, he's in much better form and looks to have saved his best performances for the second half of the season.
In truth, while Real's Ronaldo deserved the Ballon d'Or, it's Messi who is the best player in the world at this very moment, and it's very difficult to envisage anyone stopping him marauding through anyone's defence.
He is churning out incredible displays that make him totally irrepressible at present.
Even with Messi's superhuman endeavours, though, Barcelona are far from a one-man team; they have plenty of top stars ready to make an impression, pressurise opponents to win the ball back and run into the space created by the diminutive Argentinian.
Indeed, we saw exactly that as Luis Enrique's men snatched their only goal in their second-leg 1-0 win over Manchester City. Ivan Rakitic infiltrated the space available to him inside the 18-yard box after Messi had attracted a swarm of defenders around him.
Eurosport's Andy Mitten is in agreement that Barca are the most-feared team on the continent: "Barca are improving month by month and, in contrast to Real Madrid, have hit their best form of the season at the right time."
Although they didn't steamroll the Citizens over either leg and are not unbeaten in Europe this season, they have been tested—unlike Bayern Munich.
In short, Barcelona should be underestimated at everyone's peril.
