College Football Week Five Projections: Will Your Team Be Victorious?

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl matchups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Aug. 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game.

The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1 percent win is different than a 99 percent win).

Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage.

We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008.

Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where, and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position, and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team.

If a team is listed as having a 95 percent chance of winning, that means that it won at 95 percent or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data.

In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week Five (10/3/09).

Game of the Week: No. 7 LSU 30 (5-0) @ No. 15 Georgia 23 (3-2)
These two teams that underachieved last season both lose key pieces, yet still rank among our preseason top 15.

LSU finished just 8-5 in 2008, including losing a 52-38 shootout to Georgia at home.

The key to optimism with the Tigers is their 38-3 win over favored Georgia Tech last season in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, where freshman quarterback Jordan Jefferson and the offense really clicked.

Jefferson and seven other offensive starters are back for what should be a much improved attack from 2008.

Georgia had a slightly more prolific season, but lost more with the departure of first round NFL draft choices quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Knowshon Moreno.

Unless previously injured Bulldogs Trinton Sturdivant (OL) and Jeff Owens (DT) come back as dominant players, Georgia may again disappoint in the SEC and lose to LSU by about a touchdown.

LSU seeks revenge for last year by winning 76.1 percent of the time and by an average score of 30-23.

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Virginia @ North Carolina	95.0	7-24
North Carolina State @ Wake Forest	46.2	18-17
Clemson @ Maryland	31.2	19-14
Florida State @ Boston College	6.0	29-9
Oklahoma @ Miami (FL)	5.0	40-11
Virginia Tech @ Duke	5.0	33-8
Kent State @ Baylor	95.0	11-43
New Mexico @ Texas Tech	95.0	12-40
Kansas State @ Iowa State	47.5	21-20
Arkansas @ Texas A&M	15.0	32-17
Colorado @ West Virginia	95.0	8-42
Texas Southern @ Rutgers	95.0	8-41
Pittsburgh @ Louisville	14.6	26-15
South Florida @ Syracuse	5.0	31-10
Arkansas State @ Iowa	95.0	9-32
Michigan @ Michigan State	80.1	8-19
Penn State @ Illinois	45.2	25-24
Wisconsin @ Minnesota	40.9	22-21
Northwestern @ Purdue	28.2	12-8
Ohio State @ Indiana	5.0	40-9
Memphis @ UCF	39.5	16-15
Tulsa @ Rice	26.9	33-26
East Carolina @ Marshall	13.6	23-12
Southern Miss @ UAB	9.3	36-20
Houston @ UTEP	8.3	43-25
Washington @ Notre Dame	95.0	6-35
Tulane @ Army	55.5	14-17
Air Force @ Navy	43.5	25-24
Toledo @ Ball State	60.5	17-23
Ohio @ Bowling Green	55.1	16-20
Temple @ Eastern Michigan	30.6	17-12
Central Michigan @ Buffalo	19.6	23-14
Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois	13.6	30-18
Cincinnati @ Miami (OH)	5.0	41-8
Southern Methodist @ TCU	95.0	8-40
Utah State @ Brigham Young	95.0	11-40
New Mexico State @ San Diego State	64.5	15-21
Washington State @ Oregon	95.0	6-49
UCLA @ Stanford	79.7	13-27
Oregon State @ Arizona State	25.6	23-17
USC @ California	6.6	32-14
South Carolina State @ South Carolina	94.0	8-25
Auburn @ Tennessee	93.0	6-27
LSU @ Georgia	23.9	30-23
Alabama @ Kentucky	5.0	38-6
Georgia Tech @ Mississippi State	5.0	34-8
Mississippi @ Vanderbilt	5.0	35-9
Wyoming @ Florida Atlantic	60.5	15-21
Florida International @ Louisiana-Monroe	19.3	23-13
California-Davis @ Boise State	95.0	7-43
Hawaii @ Louisiana Tech	89.7	16-33
UNLV @ Nevada	89.7	19-38
Colorado State @ Idaho	5.0	31-11

Week 5 Standings

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	5 - 0	4 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Georgia Tech	5 - 0	4 - 1
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina State	4 - 1	4 - 1
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	4 - 1	4 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	4 - 1	4 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	3 - 2	3 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Duke	3 - 2	3 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	2 - 3	3 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Wake Forest	2 - 3	3 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	2 - 3	2 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	1 - 3	1 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	0 - 4	1 - 3
Big 12	Baylor	4 - 0	4 - 0
Big 12	Oklahoma State	4 - 0	4 - 0
Big 12	Oklahoma	4 - 0	4 - 0
Big 12	Texas	4 - 0	4 - 0
Big 12	Kansas	4 - 0	3 - 1
Big 12	Nebraska	3 - 1	3 - 1
Big 12	Missouri	2 - 2	3 - 1
Big 12	Kansas State	3 - 2	3 - 2
Big 12	Texas Tech	3 - 2	3 - 2
Big 12	Colorado	2 - 2	2 - 2
Big 12	Iowa State	2 - 3	2 - 3
Big 12	Texas A&M	0 - 4	1 - 3
Big East	West Virginia	4 - 0	4 - 0
Big East	Pittsburgh	5 - 0	4 - 1
Big East	Rutgers	5 - 0	4 - 1
Big East	South Florida	4 - 1	4 - 1
Big East	Cincinnati	3 - 2	3 - 2
Big East	Connecticut	2 - 2	2 - 2
Big East	Louisville	2 - 2	2 - 2
Big East	Syracuse	1 - 4	1 - 4
Big Ten	Penn State	5 - 0	4 - 1
Big Ten	Wisconsin	5 - 0	4 - 1
Big Ten	Iowa	4 - 1	4 - 1
Big Ten	Northwestern	4 - 1	4 - 1
Big Ten	Ohio State	4 - 1	4 - 1
Big Ten	Michigan State	3 - 2	3 - 2
Big Ten	Michigan	2 - 3	3 - 2
Big Ten	Minnesota	2 - 3	3 - 2
Big Ten	Illinois	2 - 2	2 - 2
Big Ten	Purdue	2 - 3	2 - 3
Big Ten	Indiana	1 - 4	2 - 3
Conference USA	Southern Miss	4 - 1	4 - 1
Conference USA	Tulsa	4 - 1	4 - 1
Conference USA	Houston	3 - 1	3 - 1
Conference USA	East Carolina	3 - 2	3 - 2
Conference USA	Southern Methodist	2 - 2	2 - 2
Conference USA	Marshall	2 - 3	2 - 3
Conference USA	Memphis	2 - 3	2 - 3
Conference USA	UAB	2 - 3	2 - 3
Conference USA	UTEP	2 - 3	2 - 3
Conference USA	UCF	1 - 4	2 - 3
Conference USA	Tulane	1 - 3	1 - 3
Conference USA	Rice	1 - 4	1 - 4
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	5 - 0	4 - 1
Independents (FBS)	Army	2 - 3	2 - 3
Independents (FBS)	Navy	2 - 3	2 - 3
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	0 - 4	1 - 3
Mid-American	Ball State	5 - 0	4 - 1
Mid-American	Western Michigan	5 - 0	4 - 1
Mid-American	Central Michigan	3 - 2	3 - 2
Mid-American	Kent State	3 - 2	3 - 2
Mid-American	Akron	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mid-American	Temple	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mid-American	Bowling Green	2 - 3	2 - 3
Mid-American	Buffalo	2 - 3	2 - 3
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	2 - 3	2 - 3
Mid-American	Ohio	2 - 3	2 - 3
Mid-American	Toledo	0 - 5	2 - 3
Mid-American	Eastern Michigan	0 - 4	1 - 3
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	0 - 5	0 - 5
Mountain West	TCU	4 - 0	4 - 0
Mountain West	Air Force	5 - 0	4 - 1
Mountain West	Utah	3 - 1	3 - 1
Mountain West	Brigham Young	3 - 2	3 - 2
Mountain West	Colorado State	3 - 2	3 - 2
Mountain West	San Diego State	3 - 2	3 - 2
Mountain West	UNLV	3 - 2	2 - 3
Mountain West	Wyoming	1 - 4	2 - 3
Mountain West	New Mexico	2 - 3	1 - 4
Pacific-10	USC	5 - 0	5 - 0
Pacific-10	Oregon State	5 - 0	4 - 1
Pacific-10	California	4 - 1	4 - 1
Pacific-10	Stanford	5 - 0	4 - 1
Pacific-10	Oregon	4 - 1	3 - 2
Pacific-10	Arizona State	2 - 2	2 - 2
Pacific-10	Arizona	2 - 2	2 - 2
Pacific-10	UCLA	2 - 2	2 - 2
Pacific-10	Washington State	0 - 5	1 - 4
Pacific-10	Washington	1 - 4	1 - 4
Southeastern	Alabama	5 - 0	5 - 0
Southeastern	LSU	5 - 0	5 - 0
Southeastern	Florida	4 - 0	4 - 0
Southeastern	Mississippi	4 - 0	4 - 0
Southeastern	Tennessee	4 - 1	4 - 1
Southeastern	Georgia	3 - 2	3 - 2
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	3 - 2	3 - 2
Southeastern	Arkansas	2 - 2	2 - 2
Southeastern	South Carolina	2 - 3	2 - 3
Southeastern	Mississippi State	1 - 4	2 - 3
Southeastern	Kentucky	1 - 3	1 - 3
Southeastern	Auburn	1 - 4	1 - 4
Sun Belt	Arkansas State	2 - 2	2 - 2
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	2 - 2	2 - 2
Sun Belt	Florida International	2 - 2	2 - 2
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Lafayette	2 - 2	2 - 2
Sun Belt	Troy	2 - 2	2 - 2
Sun Belt	Middle Tennessee	3 - 2	2 - 3
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Monroe	1 - 4	1 - 4
Sun Belt	North Texas	0 - 5	1 - 4
Western Athletic	Boise State	4 - 1	4 - 1
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	3 - 1	3 - 1
Western Athletic	Nevada	3 - 1	3 - 1
Western Athletic	Hawaii	2 - 2	2 - 2
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	2 - 3	2 - 3
Western Athletic	Fresno State	1 - 3	1 - 3
Western Athletic	San Jose State	1 - 3	1 - 3
Western Athletic	Utah State	2 - 2	1 - 3
Western Athletic	Idaho	0 - 5	1 - 4

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!