NASCAR at Fontana 2015: Complete Preview and Prediction for the Auto Club 400
Can the Happy Harvick Express keep rolling this Sunday at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California?
Harvick is the hottest driver in NASCAR in more than four decades. Dating back to the last three races of 2014—as he drove toward his first Sprint Cup championship—Harvick now has four wins and three runner-up finishes in his last seven starts.
That includes back-to-back wins two weeks ago at Las Vegas and his fourth straight win (and fifth in the last six) at Phoenix.
Sure, hot streaks are bound to come to an end. But given the domination Harvick has shown, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him keep going. He’s certainly capable of winning Sunday at the wide, high-speed, two-mile banked track at Fontana—in 21 starts there, Harvick has one win, four top-fives and nine top-10 finishes.
Kyle Busch has won the last two races at ACS, but he won’t be able to go for a third straight victory, as he's still out indefinitely with a broken leg and foot from a crash at Daytona on Feb. 21.
By the Numbers: Auto Club Speedway
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Auto Club 400
Place: Auto Club Speedway
Date: Sunday, March 22
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: Fox, 3 p.m. ET
Radio: Motor Racing Network, Sirius XM Ch. 90
Distance: 200 laps, 400 miles
Defending race winner: Kyle Busch
Youngest Fontana winner: Kyle Busch (09/04/2005—20 years, 4 months, 2 days)
Oldest Fontana winner: Rusty Wallace (04/29/2001—44 years, 8 months, 15 days)
Defending pole winner: Matt Kenseth, 187.315 mph (03/21/2014)
Youngest Fontana pole winner: Kyle Busch (02/27/2005—19 years, 9 months, 25 days)
Oldest Fontana pole winner: Mike Skinner (04/30/2000—42 years, 10 months, 2 days)
TRACK NOTES
—16 drivers have won poles at Fontana, led by Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin with three each
—Race record: Tony Stewart (160.166 mph, 03/25/2012)
—Qualifying record: Kyle Busch (188.245 mph, 02/27/2005)
—There have been 25 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Auto Club Speedway, previously known as California Speedway, from 1997 through 2014.
—14 different drivers have won at Auto Club Speedway, led by Jimmie Johnson with five victories
—Johnson also has the most top-five finishes (12) at Fontana.
—Matt Kenseth has the most top-10 finishes (15) at Fontana.
All statistics courtesy of NASCAR Media Relations.
Key Storylines: Auto Club 400
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Can Kevin Harvick keep his run going?
Harvick is defying the odds by having the season start that he has had. I remember when I wrote after Atlanta that he was the hottest driver on the circuit and a number of fans disagreed, saying Daytona winner Joey Logano and Atlanta winner Jimmie Johnson were hotter because they had wins at that point and Harvick didn't.
All of a sudden, two races later, Harvick has two wins, and many seem to be marveling at the significance of what he's done in 2015 (and dating back to the last three races of 2014).
Now, the question is whether he can continue this incredible and torrid pace. Sooner or later, the streak will have to end, but I think Harvick has at least one more top-two finish in him this weekend.
What’s next for Kurt Busch?
After being suspended by NASCAR for three weeks, Kurt Busch picked up like he had never left, finishing a strong fifth at Phoenix this past Sunday. Can Busch, who is a former winner at Fontana, follow up Phoenix with another strong outing this Sunday at one of his favorite race tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit?
Can Tony Stewart snap his jinx?
Tony Stewart and 36th place in the standings just don’t belong in the same sentence, let alone the same thought. But the reality is that the three-time champ continues to struggle after the first four races. Can he finally turn things around at California, where he’s a two-time winner (2010 and 2012)?
Who takes over for Kyle Busch?
Busch has an outstanding record at Auto Club Speedway, with three wins in total, including back-to-back triumphs the last two seasons. But he will not be back to go for three in a row, as he’s still recuperating from the broken leg and foot he suffered in a wreck at Daytona on Feb. 21. Might his replacement driver, David Ragan, be able to take the No. 18 to Victory Lane as somewhat of an homage to Busch?
Can Jeff Gordon continue his uphill climb?
Gordon had a terrible start to the season, wrecking at Daytona (finished 33rd) and Atlanta (41st). After finishing 18th at Las Vegas, the retiring four-time champ had his best showing of the season at Phoenix, finishing ninth. He also climbed five spots in the standings to 25th. Now, can he keep it all up going forward?
Drivers to Watch
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Brian Vickers
Now that he's been back for two races since recovering from offseason heart surgery, Vickers should start feeling more and more comfortable behind the wheel. And Fontana provides a perfect landscape for him to perform some of his racing artistry.
This is also a very important race for Toyota, the manufacturer for whom Vickers drives, given that Southern California is home to Toyota Racing Development. Vickers could be a surprise star in Sunday's race.
Greg Biffle
While The Biff is off to a decent start, his name—and performance—has flown under the radar in the first four races. As I said last week prior to Phoenix, Biffle needs a breakout race to not only get himself on track but also to get Roush Fenway Racing on track as well. RFR has been far too quiet thus far in 2015. It needs a big splash, and the veteran Biffle is the one most likely to jump into the pool and create it.
Tony Stewart
How can you not keep watching Stewart? Yes, if you’re a Smoke fan, it’s probably very difficult and painful to watch him struggle the way he has during this season thus far. But no one is trying harder to turn things around than Stewart. I mean, Danica Patrick is 13 places higher in the rankings than Stewart. Something good has to come his way—and hopefully soon.
Ryan Newman
In four weeks, NASCAR’s Rocket Man has rocketed up the points standings. After the season-opening Daytona 500, Newman was ranked 34th in the Sprint Cup standings. Three weeks later, after this past Sunday’s third-place finish at Phoenix, he is now up to eighth in the standings. That’s a 26-position gain in just three weeks.
He’s definitely knocking at the door to not only climb into the top five but also to earn his first win since the 2013 Brickyard 400. Fontana is his kind of track: big, wide and, especially, fast.
Danica Patrick
Call this a gut feeling or a hunch. Patrick has a good and realistic chance to leave Fontana with a top-10 finish.
Not only does she have considerable experience racing there between IndyCar and the Sprint Cup but the track’s wide and long layout is also perfect for Patrick to make some significant forward moves, particularly on long runs. The biggest thing is she has to improve on restarts, which have been a thorn in her side all season.
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Favorites
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Kevin Harvick
Seven races (dating back to last three races of 2014), four wins, three runner-up finishes. Hottest streak in NASCAR in more than 40 years. Enough said.
Jimmie Johnson
Before Kyle Busch won the last two Sprint Cup races at Fontana, this was Johnson’s track. He has won five times at Auto Club Speedway, and it’s a good likelihood he can make it No. 6 this Sunday—especially with Busch not in the race, still recovering from his broken leg and foot suffered last month at Daytona.
Jeff Gordon
After being wrecked out in the first two races of this season, Gordon is coming off a ninth-place finish at Phoenix. With things looking brighter than they did a few weeks ago, he may be poised for a breakout weekend at Fontana. Gordon has a strong record at the track—in 25 starts, he has three wins, 10 top-fives and 11 top-10 finishes.
Kurt Busch
The three-race suspension that Busch served recently didn’t seem to upset his ability, as he finished a very strong fifth at Phoenix. And with younger brother Kyle sidelined indefinitely, what better way for older brother to make a statement than to extend the Busch brothers’ superiority at Fontana? Kurt has already won there once. Can he make it two Sunday?
Brad Keselowski
We’re four races into the season, and Bad Brad still has yet to win a race. No, it’s not panic time, but there is concern, especially going to a track where Keselowski has finished no higher than 18th in his first six starts there. For a guy who likes fast and long race tracks, it’s kind of surprising that he hasn’t fared better at Fontana. Perhaps this could be the weekend he finally does?
Dark-Horse Pick
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Denny Hamlin has had a rough go of it in the last couple of years at Fontana.
He wrecked out in the 2013 race, suffering a fractured L1 vertebrae that kept him out of a race car for four races. And then last year, Hamlin had to miss race day at Fontana when he somehow wound up with small shards of metal in his eye (originally thought to be a simple sinus infection).
Auto Club Speedway has confounded Hamlin even without the issues he’s had the last two years there. In 13 career starts, he has zero wins, just one top-five and four top-10 finishes.
But at the same time, Hamlin loves to hang it out wide-open on the very fast two-mile track. That’s why it’s not a surprise he has three career poles there.
Hamlin has a lot to prove after the last two years of mishaps. Given that he’s only about 50 miles from Hollywood, wouldn’t it make for a great script to see him win Sunday?
And the Winner Is: Jimmie Johnson
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While I really want to see Harvick keep his winning ways going, I don’t see it happening Sunday at Fontana. Of course, that doesn’t mean he can’t finish runner-up.
But after weighing everything, I give a slight nod to Johnson to take the checkered flag this weekend.
He is the winningest driver at Auto Club Speedway (five wins). He's also from El Cajon, so he considers ACS his home track. And he doesn’t have to worry about Kyle Busch being in Sunday’s race (Busch has won the last two Cup races at ACS).
But don’t worry, Harvick will be hovering around the checkered flag. If Johnson slips or gets a bit overconfident, Happy will be ready to pounce to keep his current streak going.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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