Is Charles Clay Really Worth a Monster TE Contract?

“How much is too much?”

You may find yourself mumbling that question late at night with a fistful of potato chips. The Miami Dolphins have been asking it too, only with much higher stakes: the fate of Charles Clay.

Prior to the start of free agency they slapped the transition tag on Clay. That functions as a shield of sorts, giving the Dolphins five days to match any potential contract offer while in this case also requiring a minimum commitment of $7.057 million on a one-year tender. 

An offer was pushed Clay's way by the Buffalo Bills, and he signed it, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. The dollars attached communicate two clear directions for what should happen next: The Dolphins need to run far, far away, and the Bills should strongly reconsider their financial priorities.

Brace for the ugly, borderline grotesque details from Vic Carucci of The Buffalo News:

Before we dive deep into that mess of mountainous digits, let’s establish that Clay is indeed a solid tight end. A versatile one too who excels as a blocker and has been used in an H-back role, often lining up in the backfield.

Clay struggled through knee and hamstring injuries in 2014 yet still finished with 68 receptions for 605 yards over 14 games. The Bills tight ends barely combined to eclipse Clay’s production, totaling 657 yards. Scott Chandler, who's since been released, fell far below (497 yards).

Even better, Clay’s single-season career high totals of 69 receptions for 759 yards and six touchdowns would either set or match Bills tight end records, as noted by Jay Skurski of The Buffalo News. Clay is also a skilled run-blocker, receiving the 11th-highest grade in that category from Pro Football Focus in 2014 among tight ends who played at least 25 percent of their team’s snaps.

So there’s a lot to like and a clear need in Buffalo for an offense likely preparing to focus on short, quick-hitting passes after the addition of wide receiver Percy Harvin. Clay is a movable offensive chesspiece who can create mismatches, and he’s only a year removed from finishing fifth among tight ends with 373 yards after the catch, per PFF.

There’s just not a whole lot to like at that price. You’re excused if you fall to the floor below while reading these percentages from numberFire’s Graham Barfield:

That’s right: A tight end who’s never had a 1,000-yard season is about to make 20 percent more in guaranteed cash than the Seattle Seahawks’ Jimmy Graham and over double the secured percentage given to the New England Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski.

Clay is potentially set to be the NFL’s second-highest paid tight end in terms of guaranteed money, depending on exactly how much “more than” $20 million he receives. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ Julius Thomas just pocketed $24 million guaranteed, while Graham’s mammoth contract inherited by Seattle pays him $20.9 million automatically.

Keep trying to stay in an upright position while noting the wide financial gap between Clay, Graham and Gronkowski along with the chasm separating their production.

TE	Age	Total guaranteed money	Avg. receiving yards/season	TDs
Jimmy Graham	28	$20.9 million	950.4	51
Charles Clay	26	$20 million	452.3	15
Rob Gronkowski	25	$13.5 million	875.8	54

Statistically that comparison is even being a little generous and forgiving with Clay because it includes two injury-shortened seasons when Gronkowski played a combined 16 games. The Patriots factored that into his contract structure, which leads to a broader question tied to team-building philosophy.

Who should be valued higher and is more deserving of a commitment: Gronkowski even with the health risks or Clay with what he might become?

The Bills were forced to overbid for Clay. That becomes inherent when the transition tag is involved, as one side throws down an offer the other side won’t (or can’t) match. But the offer can be kept within the limits of wise spending.

Clay’s contract takes a jackhammer to those boundaries, and the Bills are now forced to hope his play can elevate to a level that makes his dollars seem moderately sane—which is completely backward thinking.

With the exception of the very top free agents each year (think Ndamukong Suh), the goal in free agency is always to manage the market and obtain assets on contracts that will at worst look affordable a year or two down the road. Or at best the key contributors signed during any given March will later have below-market deals.

The Bills have reset the market in their quest to flex more dollar muscle than Miami. While doing so they’ve also forced Clay to become Graham or Gronkowski if he wants to justify his paycheck. Good luck with that.

Looking beyond the guaranteed money makes this even worse. As Mike Garafolo of Fox Sports notes, Clay’s contract is severely front-end loaded, with nearly 65 percent coming over the first two years.

Here’s fun perspective: Clay will cash in a roster bonus of $10 million when the 2016 league year begins, while Graham will earn a base salary of $8.9 million during the same season, per Spotrac.

Sadly, this will become a contract that looms over Clay and diminishes his still-fine production in a dual role.

He’s an ideal fit for a Bills offense that will likely look to minimize its quarterback as much as possible with safe throws and yards-after-the-catch opportunities.

New coordinator Greg Roman will ask either Matt Cassel or EJ Manuel to be his Alex Smith, taking few risks with a run-based attack. Clay could play the Delanie Walker role, just in a larger capacity.

Like Walker, Clay can be used throughout the formation to capitalize on favorable matchups. Walker averaged 16.4 yards per reception in 2012 during his final year playing for Roman with the San Francisco 49ers. After he left, fellow 49ers tight end Vernon Davis was targeted 84 times in 2013 for 850 yards, tying a career high with 13 touchdowns.

In that system Clay is the perfect addition, especially when plugged in alongside Harvin, running back LeSean McCoy and wideouts Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. If the Bills’ approach is to acknowledge a quarterback weakness by surrounding Cassel and Manuel with weapons capable of creating their own chunk gains and space, they’ve succeeded.

But this time the cost leads to an insurmountable gap between what Clay is now and what he needs to become.

The Bills went beyond overpaying. They inserted a player into a pay bracket far above his reach, while his career resume says he belongs several rungs below.