We'll Never Know How Good 2014-15 OKC Thunder Could Have Been
Whoever's in possession of the Oklahoma City Thunder voodoo doll needs to relinquish control immediately.
As if prolonged and destructive ailments plaguing Kevin Durant (foot) and Russell Westbrook (hand, face, metallic armor) weren't bad enough, the Thunder received more dreadful news on Monday afternoon.
According to ESPN.com's Royce Young, "forward Serge Ibaka will undergo a knee procedure to address some persistent soreness," and there is currently no projected timetable for his return.
"As we continue to monitor and evaluate the soreness in Serge's knee, in consultation with his representation, we decided the next best step is to have him travel to New York to see a specialist," a team spokesman said, per Young.
So that's bleak.
It's also horribly unfortunate. All year long, we've been deprived of seeing the Thunder at full strength, and Ibaka's knee procedure will prevent that from being the case in the weeks ahead.
Although Oklahoma City received a lift when center Steven Adams (hand) recently returned from a 10-game absence, this isn't a time to bask in the glow of silver linings.
And, sure, Durant presumably returning sometime in the next week or two will provide a massive lift to the Thunder in their quest to ward off the hard-charging New Orleans Pelicans in the playoff race. The Pelicans sit a half-game behind the Thunder at the moment.
But at this rate, it looks like the reigning Western Conference finalists will never realize their full potential.
As The Oklahoman's Anthony Slater noted, Oklahoma City is losing Ibaka at the worst possible time:
Shooting woes came to define Ibaka's early-season struggles, but he was coming on strong over the last month—with noticeable spikes in the field-goal percentage, scoring and rebounding departments.
Not only will the Thunder be without a resurgent and versatile presence for an undetermined period of time, but they'll lose a valuable floor-stretcher and the league's second-ranked shot-blocker.
Ibaka grades out as the league's second-most intimidating rim protector. Among players who face at least seven shots at the rim per game, Ibaka's allowed the second-lowest field-goal percentage (40.7). Only Rudy Gobert—human Inspector Gadget impersonator—has been better.
Of course, given the tragic state of the team's luck on the injury front, Ibaka going under the knife was merely the progression of a trend that's ravaged Oklahoma City's continuity all season long.
Including Monday night's clash with the Dallas Mavericks, here's a breakdown of games missed by the team's most snakebitten contributors:
| Kevin Durant | 27 | 40.3 |
| Russell Westbrook | 52 | 77.6 |
| Serge Ibaka | 64 | 95.5 |
| Steven Adams | 55 | 82.0 |
| Andre Roberson | 59 | 88.0 |
| Mitch McGary | 18 | 26.9 |
Those figures are particularly deflating because when the Thunder do have all of their big guns wheeling and dealing, they are one of the league's most efficient clubs on both ends of the floor.
Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Adams and Andre Roberson have played the most minutes of any Thunder lineup, but don't let that mislead you. As a five-man unit, that group has accumulated just 249 minutes together over the course of 23 games.
In those contests, Oklahoma City has totaled a winning percentage of .652. That's roughly 9 percent higher than the team's season-long total.
| Atlanta Hawks | Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov |
| Golden State Warriors | Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut |
| Los Angeles Clippers | Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams |
| Portland Trail Blazers | Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez |
| Washington Wizards | Wall-Beal-Pierce-Nene-Gortat |
On the efficiency spectrum, head coach Scott Brooks' preferred starting lineup has done serious damage, holding its own against elite title contenders.
Look at the differential in games and minutes played. That disparity is driving a stake right through the heart of Oklahoma City's title hopes, and it will continue to do so with Ibaka sidelined.
Even the Cleveland Cavaliers' best group has appeared in more games and played more minutes than OKC's go-to bunch, and Timofey Mozgov didn't make his first appearance in wine and gold until Jan. 9.
Even so, that Thunder alignment is scoring at a rate 6.3 points higher than the team's overall mark. And among those five-man units, the only defenses more efficient than Oklahoma City's have been those of the Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors.
That's championship-caliber production. However, it likely won't see the light of day anytime soon.
If there's one sliver of good news, it's that general manager Sam Presti reinforced the team's front line at the trade deadline. The addition of Enes Kanter will undoubtedly help soften the blow of Ibaka's absence, but it's not going to be a cure-all.
"I like their toughness," Brooks told reporters about Adams and Kanter. "I like one’s ability to roll, and Enes has the ability to roll and catch and pick-and-pop on his shot. And they both can get to the free-throw line.”
Kanter can pick up scoring slack as a face-up weapon and back-to-the-basket scorer, but concerns will linger regarding potential pairings with Adams, Nick Collison or Mitch McGary.
As Yahoo Sports' Dan Devine wrote, "None of those players provide near the level of offensive floor-spacing and defensive mistake-correction that Ibaka can, and has, in big minutes alongside the Thunder's new post-scoring prize."
The sad fact remains that even if Oklahoma City can clinch the No. 8 seed out West, it'll be set up for failure with a titanic showdown against the Warriors.
At full strength, The Thunder can undoubtedly push the Warriors to the limit. That was clear when Oklahoma City downed Golden State 127-115 on Jan. 16 with its complete complement of studs at the ready.
But without extended stretches to mesh with so many integral new pieces in the fold, it's hard to see the Thunder transforming from a fringe playoff qualifier into the title contender they were destined to become.
And that's really been the story of Oklahoma City's season: Just when it looks like the pieces are falling into place, disaster strikes in one form or another.
The Thunder's season has evolved into a nightmare, but sadly, there's no shaking this frightening hallucination. It's just the sad reality they have to accept.
All statistics current as of March 16 and courtesy of NBA.com unless noted otherwise.
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