Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Updated Draft Big Board After 1st Wave of Free Agency
The Buccaneers have kept pretty quiet since free agency began last week. Even so, it was unlikely any free-agent acquisition was going to affect the status of the two most important pieces of their draft board: Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota.
It became abundantly clear the Bucs were going in a new direction at the quarterback position when they cut QB Josh McCown in February. Mike Glennon is the only quarterback currently on the roster, so it's a good bet the Bucs are locked into taking one of the top two passers with the first pick of the draft.
Last year's free-agent haul turned into a toxic dump. The Bucs apparently took the lessons of last year to heart and approached this offseason with more prudence.
Last week, the Bucs cut their biggest signings from last year, offensive tackle Anthony Collins and defensive end Michael Johnson. Their uninspired play in 2014 leaves the Bucs looking to fill the same positions a year later.
Whiffing on Johnson and Collins possibly scared the Bucs front office from making too many big moves again. So far, the only sizable contract they signed is with former Cowboys linebacker Bruce Carter for four years and $20.5 million, per Sports Talk Florida's Jenna Laine.
The Bucs also signed former Cowboys defensive tackle Henry Melton, per ESPN's Adam Schefter, and former Bears safety Chris Conte, per ESPN's Vaughn McClure, to one-year contracts.
Carter is likely to be a starter at middle linebacker. Melton and Conte will see significant playing time in rotation on defense, likely pushing down the value of defensive tackles and safeties on the Bucs' draft board.
The Bucs have made no moves to indicate they are straying from taking Winston or Mariota in the first round.
In the event the Bucs do trade out of the top spot, their free-agent moves have narrowed down their likely targets to offensive linemen and defensive ends. It's highly unlikely the Bucs are even considering another defensive tackle or safety.
Dark horses for the Bucs' first-round pick include wide receiver Kevin White, running back Todd Gurley and cornerback Trae Waynes.
White and Gurley are rare offensive talents who could compensate for the lack of a franchise quarterback. Cornerback may not seem like a need for the Bucs, but Waynes would mitigate the Bucs' lack of a pass rush and help address their need for a nickel corner upgrade.
Though the Bucs seem set on what their top pick will be, nothing is out of the question until the pick is made. Here is the Bucs' updated draft board following the first week of free agency.
1. Jameis Winston
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No matter what happened in free agency, Jameis Winston was going to remain atop the Bucs' draft board.
Winston is the most valuable player in this year's draft, primarily because he's the best quarterback. For as good as Marcus Mariota may be, Winston has already demonstrated he has the necessary tools to succeed on an NFL football field.
The Tampa Bay Times' Matt Baker rounded up over a dozen NFL pundits and draftniks who all see the Bucs taking Winston. His fit in Tampa Bay is obvious to most of the NFL media sphere.
Winston is the reason the Bucs aren't likely to trade down from the top pick. No NFL team can afford missing out on a potential franchise quarterback.
2. Marcus Mariota
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As likely as the Winston pick is, it's not 100 percent certain for one reason: Oregon QB Marcus Mariota.
Mariota's oft-debated pro-readiness keeps him from competing more seriously for the top pick. While he was clearly successful in Oregon's fast-paced spread offense, he hasn't taken a real snap under center since high school.
What Mariota has over Winston is actually what he doesn't have: character concerns. For whatever questions there are about Mariota on the field, there are none off the field, according to his Oregon teammates:
"Oregon T @J_Fish231 says Marcus Mariota "always does the right thing. You can't say that about everybody in this day and age." @SiriusXMNFL
— Alex Marvez (@alexmarvez) March 17, 2015"
The door isn't shut on Mariota yet, as demonstrated by his visit to One Buc Place on Monday. The Bucs were always going to evaluate both passers and make as close a comparison as possible.
3. Dante Fowler Jr.
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There is still a slim chance the Bucs trade out of the first spot to address their other needs across the roster. Those needs begin with their abysmal edge rush and defensive end Dante Fowler Jr.
This year's draft is top-heavy with pass-rushers. Only a handful are a good fit for the Bucs' 4-3 defensive front. Fowler is easily the Bucs' top prospect if they target a pass-rusher.
The Florida defensive lineman is as athletic a player as there is in this draft. With a 4.61-second 40-yard dash time, Fowler has the speed and the athleticism to fly around the edge and take down quarterbacks.
While the Bucs might be glad to have Fowler, the feeling isn't necessarily mutual per NFL.com's Chase Goodbread:
"Florida DE Dante Fowler on growing up in St. Pete: "Yeah I like the Bucs, but you know, the Bucs are the Bucs."
— Chase Goodbread (@ChaseGoodbread) February 20, 2015"
Fowler may not be keen on the Bucs, but that might change if he were instrumental to turning the defense around.
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4. Brandon Scherff
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The Bucs' other big need is on the offensive line. In the event of a trade down, the first lineman the Bucs would target is Brandon Scherff.
The Iowa offensive lineman might be the perfect player for the Bucs' offensive line woes. Capable of playing tackle or guard, Scherff would lock down at least one of the Bucs' vacant starting spots on the right side.
Scherff brings reliability in pass protection that the Bucs sorely need. Bleacher Report's Matt Bowen highlights how much of an asset Scherff can be with this blitz pickup:
"Better keep your pad level low if you want to blitz vs. Iowa's Brandon Scherff. RT @slole1: @MattBowen41 https://t.co/2U9H3zprob …
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) September 24, 2014"
Scherff is an ideal blend of athleticism and technique that will keep him high on the Bucs' big board.
5. La'el Collins
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It's been a long time since the Bucs had anyone lock down the guard position. Their next best shot might be LSU OT La'el Collins.
Collins played left tackle in college, but he doesn't have the hand technique to jump into the left tackle position in the NFL. He projects better as a right tackle or, ideally, as a guard.
The Bucs need a lineman with Collins' blend of power and athleticism. He would be the answer to the Bucs' lack of running lanes in 2014.
Bleacher Report's Matt Miller was impressed with Collins' combine performance, where he was able to show off his fluidity and athleticism:
"La'el Collins is by far the most athletic of the Group 1 linemen. Killing folks.
— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) February 20, 2015"
The Bucs' need for offensive line upgrades has to make them consider Collins if he should be available to them.
6. Alvin Dupree
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First-round prospects aren't necessarily complete players but often boast elite athleticism. Kentucky's Bud Dupree is a raw specimen who could bloom into a great NFL pass-rusher.
Dupree is simply unreal, athletically. At 6'4" and 269 pounds, he clocked a 4.56 40-yard dash time and recorded a 138-inch broad jump.
However, Dupree isn't accomplished or polished enough to be considered for the first pass-rusher off the board. There is inherent risk in taking a player who relied on his superior athleticism rather than developing a repertoire of pass-rush moves.
Still, Dupree was a consistent performer at Kentucky, collecting at least six sacks in three seasons from his sophomore to senior campaigns.
Dupree will need time to develop, but if the Bucs trade down, he is a legitimate target to invest in the defense long-term.
7. D.J. Humphries
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Dante Fowler Jr. is not the only Florida Gator the Bucs should target in the event of a trade down. OT D.J. Humphries is climbing up draft boards and may be worth a mid-first-round pick.
Humphries is a little less polished with a lower athletic ceiling than the tackles ranked above him. He makes up for some of it with a nasty attitude on the field.
What may separate him from his contemporaries in the first round is his initial punch. His hand placement is a little inconsistent, but according to NFL Network's Ian Wharton, he can lay a devastating blow with that first hit:
"DJ Humphries’ punch might be the best in the class. Holy heck he delivers a blow when his hands make contact
— Ian Wharton (@NFLFilmStudy) February 12, 2015"
Humphries may be the most intriguing offensive lineman near the top of the Bucs' board. With the proper development, he could be as good if not better than the other linemen in the draft.
8. Kevin White
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There is no good place for West Virginia wide receiver Kevin White on a Buccaneers draft board. On one hand, his talent makes him worthy of a top-five ranking. On the other, the Bucs will get little value from a wide receiver who doesn't have a quality quarterback.
White is the head of a very talented and very deep wide receiver class. His 4.35 40-yard dash time and the physicality he brings to the position would deem him an automatic No. 1 receiver for any NFL team.
The problem is the Bucs have two legitimate starting wide receivers, at least this year. Obviously Mike Evans is a star in the making, but veteran Vincent Jackson is 32 years old. His career is trending downwards, and a replacement may be due.
White could be the speed complement to Evans' size advantage. While he was basically a deep-ball finder for West Virginia, his physical specs and sure hands tease tremendous upside for his NFL career.
Picking White would definitely be a best-player-available pick by the Bucs. It would ensure their future at the wide receiver position, even without a quarterback like Winston or Mariota.
9. Todd Gurley
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Georgia running back Todd Gurley is another apparent luxury pick who isn't as outlandish as it first appears. Bypassing a quarterback will require the Bucs to seek a new focal point of the offense, a role Gurley has the talent to fill.
Before his suspension for selling autographs and tearing his ACL last season, Gurley was tearing up run defenses in the SEC. In just six games, he ran for 911 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 7.4 yards per carry.
While the ACL tear is a concern, Dr. James Anderson, who performed Gurley's knee surgery, reported that Gurley is actually ahead of his rehab schedule, per ESPN's Chris Mortensen.
When healthy, Gurley is nigh unstoppable. The power he exhibits evokes Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch, according to NFL.com's Albert Breer:
"Maybe he won't fall that far, but Seattle drafting Todd Gurley, grooming him as Marshawn Lynch's successor makes all the sense in the world.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) February 9, 2015"
Comparing Gurley to the NFL's best running back is premature, but it certainly arouses the imagination.
The Bucs' running backs did nothing to excite anyone in 2014. Gurley is a clear upgrade to all of them and might even be talented to overcome the Bucs' offensive line issues.
10. Trae Waynes
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If the Bucs can't land a top pass-rusher, they may as well get the best cover corner in the draft, Michigan State's Trae Waynes.
Bucs fans may be clamoring for an upgrade at safety, but Waynes would fix the Bucs' depth issues at cornerback and possibly give them one of the best corner rotations in the league.
Scheme fit may be a problem. Waynes possesses speed best suited for an outside corner, moving either Johnthan Banks or Alterraun Verner to nickel.
What might convince the Bucs to take him is his nose for the ball:
"Trae Waynes #NFLdraft https://t.co/juUIY7mgKe
— Patrick Conn BTB (@DraftCowboys) February 23, 2015"
Taking a cornerback is likely low on the Bucs' priorities in the first round, but Waynes' talent might make him hard to pass up if the Bucs trade down to the mid-first round.
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